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Coronavirus: Coming to a Neighborhood Near You?

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6 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

In the interest of getting this thread back on track, let's call it on that subject.

Don't be a cockwomble. 

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59 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

Look at Hillary's. People seem to forget that Hillary was just as disliked.

Just what I was going to ask.

On Nov 7, 2016 Hillary's +/- was 12.5% underwater with a recent peak of 18% underwater. So given the red EC advantage it may still have been an upset, but not a 21% upset.

Biden's +/- is about neutral right now which puts him further ahead of Trump on that basis now than Hillary was then.

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1 hour ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

Downplays tens of thousands of Americans dying, freaks out over a poll drawn over a few thousand Americans. 

People (particularly parents) know intrinsically that Freedom cannot co-exist with irresponsibility . In a  world where media and political irresponsibility is as rife as it is in the US, skepticism of 'freedom' as a concept in vacuo will naturally grow. When people and leaders are so irresponsible so as to make and disseminate falsehood to the point it becomes a positive danger to life and health in a crisis, then 'Freedom' has punched its own ticket.

A wise man once said that it is ultimately Truth that creates Freedom. When the value of Truth has become void to any society, its Freedom will not endure, irrespective of the documents it puts in display cases.

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1 hour ago, MAROTH4MVP said:

None of the polls, elections, feeling, media hysteria mean anything. The election isn't until November all of you getting worked up about numbers and theories means jack and jack just left town. 

Says the guy who posted Trumps election betting odds last week.,  

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4 hours ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

And you aren't getting what I am saying.

You criticize and nitpick every action taken after the fact while speaking in generalities, yet we know before this mushroomed (and you took your mandated time out), your proposed actions would have been even more deleterious than what happened.

Speaking in generalities now, aside from being easy to do, has the ancillary benefit of allowing you to move the goalposts after the fact to fit whatever narrative you wish to forward.

So I am asking you to provide some specificity, in your opinion, what sort of death total would merit, or would have merited, the actions the US took.

A total that is way higher than we are at right now. Definitely more than the seasonal flu, because nobody ever bats an eye at that, right? As such, we need 3x our current deaths to get to a bad flu season.

I said this at the very beginning. Even in countries without mitigation it hasn't progressed to a level that makes these sorts of incredible mitigation strategies logical. If we had let it go with more reasonable mitigation strategies, would we see more death? Yeah. 3X? that seems like a stretch. But nobody seems to be considering the ramifications on the backside of this thing. It's not going to be pretty for many people. 

It's kind of interesting that a guy suggesting a balanced approach gets flamed on this board, but I guess not unexpected. You all seem just fine with sequestering yourselves and giving up all sorts of liberties as outlined in Whitmer's order.

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From The Bullwerk

https://mailchi.mp/thebulwark/how-high-is-the-real-covid-19-death-toll?e=495bdc19e8

Quote

Since 2000, the annual monthly variance in deaths has stayed within a very small and relatively stable band: within a few hundred, plus or minus, the monthly average. There's one big outlier, of course, for September 2001.

Now look at the 30-day period ending on April 4, 2020: 5,330 more deaths than the monthly average. And of those, only 3,350 have been officially ascribed to COVID-19.

So what about those other 1,980 dead New Yorkers?

There are a few theoretical possibilities:

(1) As we saw in Bergamo, the official numbers undercount the real COVID-19 toll by a very large percentage: In this case, it's a 60 percent increase over the official number.

(2) A large number of non-COVID-19 deaths occurred among people who suffered other medical events—strokes, overdoses, undiagnosed aggressive cancers—because they could not get access to healthcare because the virus has overwhelmed hospitals.

(3) New York just happened to have the unluckiest month in modern history at the exact same time that a pandemic was ravaging the city.

Like I said, anything is possible. But if I was going to bet $100, I'd put it on (1).

Eventually we will know the answer. Once this is all over, teams of data nerds will comb through all of the death certificates from this period and interview attending physicians and family members and figure out, with a reasonable degree of certainty, what the true number was.

But it'll be bigger than what we're seeing now, even. Possibly by quite a lot.

And as I write this, the official number has gone over 22,000 dead. That's over a span of roughly six weeks.

For a sense of scale:

  • 4,497 Americans have been killed in Iraq over 17 years of fighting.
  • 2,216 Americans have been killed in Afghanistan in 19 years of fighting.
  • 36,516 Americans were killed in the three-year Korean War.

This virus will almost certainly kill more Americans in 20 weeks than all of those conflicts put together.

That's bad enough. But what I keep coming back to is this: Over 20 years of conflict, 58,209 Americans perished in Vietnam.

 

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19 minutes ago, stanpapi said:

A total that is way higher than we are at right now. Definitely more than the seasonal flu, because nobody ever bats an eye at that, right? As such, we need 3x our current deaths to get to a bad flu season.

I said this at the very beginning. Even in countries without mitigation it hasn't progressed to a level that makes these sorts of incredible mitigation strategies logical. If we had let it go with more reasonable mitigation strategies, would we see more death? Yeah. 3X? that seems like a stretch. But nobody seems to be considering the ramifications on the backside of this thing. It's not going to be pretty for many people. 

It's kind of interesting that a guy suggesting a balanced approach gets flamed on this board, but I guess not unexpected. You all seem just fine with sequestering yourselves and giving up all sorts of liberties as outlined in Whitmer's order.

Once again, you are taking flu numbers from an entire year and comparing them with virus numbers from 5 and a half weeks.    
 

Either you are a ******* moron or you are trying to spin numbers to make them fit your misinformed point.
 

 BTW,  I don’t think you are a moron.

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33 minutes ago, stanpapi said:

Even in countries without mitigation it hasn't progressed to a level that makes these sorts of incredible mitigation strategies logical. If we had let it go with more reasonable mitigation strategies, would we see more death? Yeah. 3X?

the question you are asking is a fair one, but you are asking it of the wrong people. The answer you want is how many people has hospital care saved that would have died without it, plus the number of people who would have died of other treatable conditions but would not have been able to get a hospital bed. But you can not blame politicians for not having that answer, only the medical community can answer that question and even then, only probably long after the fact. The political establishment is working off the best information they have available, which is that what they are doing is saving lives. You simply cannot blame them for that. Life sits in the list before liberty if you remember your civics. Any moral person when faced with even great uncertainty in the choice between saving lives in the immediate now vs having to figure out how to pick up the pieces later must err on the side of trying to save life. What happens in Japan or Brazil is irrelevant - that NY has 200,000 cases is hard fact, that Mi has 25,000 cases is hard fact. That the disease has killed 500 people per million and that number is still increasing in NY is a hard fact.

Without question, if action had been taking *sooner* less sever actions would have been required to achieve the same slowdown in the spread. Now at whose doorstep do you want to lay responsibility for that? Those who were warning of the possibility of crisis or those that nay-sayed them and so did nothing for months?

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Just now, Hongbit said:

Once again, you are taking flu numbers from an entire year and comparing them with virus numbers from 5 and a half weeks.    Either you are a ******* moron or you are trying to spin numbers to make them fit your misinformed point.  BTW,  I don’t think you are a moron.

How kind of you. 

I'm saying, the virus has not shown it was headed to those kind of numbers in countries where they did nothing ( or more limited mitigation). So why does it make sense for us to employ such aggressive mitigation? All we did was voluntarily tank our economy when we could have kept large pieces of it open and perhaps not done all the damage we did. There is going to be an awful lot of pain (and yes, even death) for people after this is over. It's not going to be pretty.

Again, I'm happy to reconsider my argument as soon as we see Brazil, Sweden and Japan leading the pack on covid cases and covid deaths.  I don't expect we'll see that, however. 

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https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/gop-governor-reopening-u-s-will-be-just-tough-if-n1182516

Quote

“Whenever we open up, however we do it, if people aren't confident, if they don't think they're safe, they're not going to go to restaurants, they're not going to go to bars, they're not going to really get back into society,” DeWine said in an interview on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe.”

....

I will say this, that going out of this thing is going to be just as tough, if not tougher, than going into it and closing things down,” he said.

The governor, who took office in January 2019, said that testing will be “imperative” to move forward until an effective vaccine is developed and made available to the general public.

“There are people who are particularly vulnerable, [who] from a medical point of view are going to have to be very, very, very careful,” he said. “I think that sometimes we all think we’re going to turn a switch and we’ll get back to normal, and that’s just not going to happen.”

This isn't a wild-eyed liberal talking here.... 

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30 minutes ago, stanpapi said:

How kind of you. 

 

I don't think you're a moron either.  

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Whitmer has to be the only governor in the history of the US who had to clarify an order she issued to make sure people understood they were not precluded from buying child car seats as a result of her order. 

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9 minutes ago, stanpapi said:

Whitmer has to be the only governor in the history of the US who had to clarify an order she issued to make sure people understood they were not precluded from buying child car seats as a result of her order. 

At least she cleans up her own mess. How many times have your boy's people had to clarify vague and misleading comments during his listen-to-me-talk daily pressers? 

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Just now, Yoda said:

At least she cleans up her own mess. How many times have your boy's people had to clarify vague and misleading comments during his listen-to-me-talk daily pressers? 

When Trump puts out an order telling you you can canoe but not ride a wave runner, we can talk. 

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1 hour ago, tiger337 said:

Says the guy who posted Trumps election betting odds last week.,  

Posted them today. They still favor Trump.

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5 minutes ago, MAROTH4MVP said:

Posted them today. They still favor Trump.

The election isn't until November.  

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7 minutes ago, stanpapi said:

When Trump puts out an order telling you you can canoe but not ride a wave runner, we can talk. 

He does worse than that every single day.  

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14 minutes ago, stanpapi said:

When Trump puts out an order telling you you can canoe but not ride a wave runner, we can talk. 

I'd much rather be lied to about a wave runner than Corona disappearing. What was it just two weeks ago when he said churches would be full on Easter? 

 

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Just now, Yoda said:

I'd much rather be lied to about a wave runner than Corona disappearing. What was it just two weeks ago when he said churches would be full on Easter? 

All you have to do is read crains today to see what people think of Whitmer. Even one of the board's heroes agrees with me. 

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