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HeyAbbott

First Blush 2020 Win Prediction

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Al Avila should be gone, but this is it for him.  This is the last year he gets to say "we're rebuilding".  If they don't show significant improvement by the middle of 2021 he needs to go.    

But I still believe this team is going to be sold by then - sold before the CBA expires in December of 2021.   The players are all united over how bad they've got it, so I wouldn't expect any MLB baseball before June of 2022 that season.    Must be rough, living like they do.   

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I think the additions of Austin Romine, Johnathan Schoop, CJ Cron, and Ivan Nova add about 6 wins.  So 54-108.  

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6 hours ago, RandyMarsh said:

FYI PECOTA released their projections and it has them at 69 wins.

DC and Steamer have them looking like the mid-60's as well.  Both of them have Candy bouncing back to be decent, Goodrum and Reyes holding their own, and Stewart, Jones and Demeritte all being about 0.5 WAR which would be alright...not to mention Cabrera being a serviceable hitter, and of course Cron and Schoop getting the job done.  Add a respectable bench and you've got 11+ WAR from the positional side.

Get this: 11 WAR from pitching with the 24th ranked rotation of 9.6 WAR, right behind the Angels and White Sox...and that's with only 18 IP from Skubal and zero contribution from Mize/Manning.  

Add it up and it's 70 wins for the Tigers.  If this happens with this group without any contributions Mize, Manning or Skubal, and before Greene and Tork (or whoever) even sniffs AA ball, and I will officially start to get tingly feelings in my baseballs.

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60some wins still put the Tigers in the bottom 7 of last season's standings, for whatever that's worth in the 2021 draft.

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What's more important this season?  Overall wins or tolerable baseball?

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1 hour ago, Casimir said:

What's more important this season?  Overall wins or tolerable baseball?

Tolerable losses. In my opinion, they have a chance at a generational type talent in Kumar Rocker in 2021, if they can finish with the worst record in baseball again.

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My vote is for some improvement, so tolerable baseball. There were series sweeps where I felt they were possibly the worst team I have ever seen.

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We hit a bit better this year and the pitching staff jells with some fresh blood.  We somehow squeeze out 70 wins... 

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28 minutes ago, Lei Pong said:

We hit a bit better this year and the pitching staff jells with some fresh blood.  We somehow squeeze out 70 wins... 

It's like every baseball season -but moreso -  there is a ceiling and there is floor and in-between are the injuries that happen,the injury recoveries that either do or don't happen and the guys they call up who happen to click. The Tigers have a bigger than usual uncertainty around No2 with Cabrera and Candelario being such big potential part of the offense (if you assume that it's still been the wrist holding Candelario back), plus Fulmer and Norris, and obviously No3 most of all. Not hard to make a good case for anything between 45 and 70.

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37 minutes ago, cruzer1 said:

Tolerable losses. In my opinion, they have a chance at a generational type talent in Kumar Rocker in 2021, if they can finish with the worst record in baseball again.

Absolutely disagree.  While it would be a relief to get a great generational talent like Trout or Cabrera or something like that, I would never want to gear up for a season of epic losing for any prospect, **especially** not a pitching prospect.

Deliberate pre-season (and especially multi-season) tanking is a blasted and stupid strategy that works against an organization's best interests.

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6 minutes ago, sabretooth said:

Absolutely disagree.  While it would be a relief to get a great generational talent like Trout or Cabrera or something like that, I would never want to gear up for a season of epic losing for any prospect, **especially** not a pitching prospect.

Deliberate pre-season (and especially multi-season) tanking is a blasted and stupid strategy that works against an organization's best interests.

I would prefer a generational position player, but the pitcher Rocker is a great prospect, even if he's a pitcher. They are a bad team now, and can try to win as much as possible, but they will be competing with the Orioles for the worst record. 

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Speaking of generational talents, one good thing about expanded playoffs would be seeing Trout getting some October run.

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3 hours ago, cruzer1 said:

Tolerable losses. In my opinion, they have a chance at a generational type talent in Kumar Rocker in 2021, if they can finish with the worst record in baseball again.

I don't know.  Wasn't Strasburg considered the second coming?  He's been a very good pitcher, but I don't know if it has matched the expectations.

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Strasburg was considered the second coming and while he didn't become the best pitcher in baseball, any team should be thrilled with getting a Strasburg with any pick, even 1-1.

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24 minutes ago, Casimir said:

I don't know.  Wasn't Strasburg considered the second coming?  He's been a very good pitcher, but I don't know if it has matched the expectations.

Todd Van Poppell.  

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23 minutes ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

Strasburg was considered the second coming and while he didn't becaome the best pitcher in baseball, any team should be thrilled with getting a Strasburg with any pick, even 1-1.

 Strasburg went under the knife a year into his pro-career. He might well have been the next coming if he hadn't but no-one will ever know for sure one way or the other now. Every arm is different and every UCL rebuild result is different.

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