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HeyAbbott

First Blush 2020 Win Prediction

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Given as grumpy as everyone on this board has been this winter, what is everyone's prediction for our beloved Tigers this year? Last year's total WAR (defensive plus offensive WAR) was negative. I think that last year they got lucky by 4 games.

I think the 54-108 season that some are talking about seems to be wildly optimistic. My guess is 48-114. The reasons:

1)Defense is horrible. On an exceptional day, it might actually reach Rookie minor league  level. I am praying that I actually see someone hit the cutoff man by May 1.

2) Hitting is horrible. Miggy was a replacement level player offensively speaking last year. The best we have right now might be a .7 WAR player, maybe.

3) Relief pitching is not robust.

4) Starting pitching might be the highlight of the team, and Manning, Mize, Faedo, etc., are at least a year away. Our great hopes this year when it comes to pitching lie in Funkhauer (sp) and Burrows.

There is nothing that resembles Pitching, offensive or defensive help available in the minors.

All this makes me wonder why I am thinking about the lofty total of 48 wins.

 

 

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I see a marginal pitching staff with Boyd, Turnbull, Norris and Nova. Zimm should be in the pen or gone. There are some adequate arms in the pen too. Still a lot of its, but I think they'll win 57-62

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They of course are gonna be terrible but I think they finish closer to their 2018 record than 2019,  I think 2019 was an absolute worst case scenario and as horrible as they are they are unlikely to repeat the dreadful performances they had last year.  So with that said I'm thinking they go 62-100. 

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33 minutes ago, Motor City Sonics said:

55-107

With the new ideas currently being discussed by MLB for improving the appeal of the game, this record may qualify for the playoffs in the near future.

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6 minutes ago, 1776 said:

With the new ideas currently being discussed by MLB for improving the appeal of the game, this record may qualify for the playoffs in the near future.

What they are proposing is so awful.  Gonna be like hockey where half the league makes the playoffs.  No thank you.   Takes the meaning away from the regular season too much.  

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I don't necessarily mind that many teams in say the NBA cause generally speaking the superior teams are going to win the vast majority of the times but in baseball where upsets are far more frequent if you water down the playoffs too much you run the risk of say a .500 team making the World Series or winning it and I don't think that's a good thing. 

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Well .. the Tigers play 19 games against each of their AL Central foes.

Cleveland still has fantastic pitching .. 6-13. 

Minnesota won 100+ last year and may be improved this year .. 5-14

Chicago White Sox appear vastly improved .. 6-13

KC Royals, not much better than the Tigers  ..9-9

Tigers could go ..26-50 against Central.

To avoid 100 loses .. would have to go 37-49 against all other foes.

 

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55 wins.  45 if everything goes wrong, 65 if everything goes incredibly well.

The starting rotation could be passable if they don't have a lot of injuries.

The bullpen could be merely below average but is likely bad.

Hitting will be atrocious other than Schoop and maybe Cron, who both could be fairly productive if healthy.

Defense will be bad.

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1 minute ago, RandyMarsh said:

I don't necessarily mind that many teams in say the NBA cause generally speaking the superior teams are going to win the vast majority of the times but in baseball where upsets are far more frequent if you water down the playoffs too much you run the risk of say a .500 team making the World Series or winning it and I don't think that's a good thing. 

I see your avatar and all I can think of is Medicinal Fried Chicken

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I'm with Abbott at 48. Last year we had Casti and we had a good closer. He piled up saves at the beginning of the year 'cause we didn't score many runs. Boyd stunk at the end of the year.Can he recover? Chicago is better. Quite a bit better. Cleve and Minn are good teams. KC will win their season series against us. 

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Tigers should win the Kumar Rocker sweepstakes, so 55 wins should do it.

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1 minute ago, Chili Mac Davis said:

I'm with Abbott at 48. Last year we had Casti and we had a good closer. He piled up saves at the beginning of the year 'cause we didn't score many runs. Boyd stunk at the end of the year.Can he recover? Chicago is better. Quite a bit better. Cleve and Minn are good teams. KC will win their season series against us. 

Of course only we can get worse, not cleveland who lost two pitchers and had Santana play way over their heads. Chicago is quite a bit beter, sure we've heard that for the last what 6 years? 

And we'll ignore all the things that went wrong last year, Nick C was not significantly better than Cron or Schoop (but yet we will cite Nick C being gone as a reason we will lose), all the guys we signed got hurt. All the young guys will not develop at all. That's all likely to happen again, sure.

For them to finish with the same record last year would be a heck of a shock. They are going to be bad. But, unless there is another rash of injuries I doubt they get to 114 loses. 

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45 minutes ago, Keepleyland2 said:

Of course only we can get worse, not cleveland who lost two pitchers and had Santana play way over their heads. Chicago is quite a bit beter, sure we've heard that for the last what 6 years? 

And we'll ignore all the things that went wrong last year, Nick C was not significantly better than Cron or Schoop (but yet we will cite Nick C being gone as a reason we will lose), all the guys we signed got hurt. All the young guys will not develop at all. That's all likely to happen again, sure.

For them to finish with the same record last year would be a heck of a shock. They are going to be bad. But, unless there is another rash of injuries I doubt they get to 114 loses. 

I think this is the more reasonable take....except that we have been in such an 'everything that can go wrong does go wrong" rut the last couple of years that it's hard be accept anything might go right. ?

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2 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

I think this is the more reasonable take....except that we have been in such an 'everything that can go wrong does go wrong" rut the last couple of years that it's hard be accept anything might go right. ?

and who knows they might lose 114. I just get annoyned with the takes of everybody got better or this team didn't get worse, meanwhile there is no chance the Tigers could be better just simply by luck. I mean heck what's the chance of losing 18 of 19 to one team again? Just two wins there puts them at 50. 

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