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RatkoVarda

2020 Tiger Prospects

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9 hours ago, RandyMarsh said:

It is concerning that the system isn't in better shape considering we really haven't had any major graduations in a few years, have picked early a couple years now and with the exception of Boyd traded away any major assets we had on the Major League team.   It's still a lot better than it was say 3-4 years ago but not as good nor deep as I would've liked considering the things I mentioned above.   Hopefully we'll have a great draft this June and some of the younger guys in the system will take big steps forward.  

To be fair, how many systems do you look at, see their 8th rated guy and be like "Yep he's a regular big leaguer?" One? maybe 2? 

Yes it would be nice to be a bitter deeper, but I think fans/some analysts get carried away with a deep system. Few have it, and often times having a high end is all that matters. If at any given point and time you look at someone's system and find 4 guys who later go on to have Nick C careers, you're usually doing pretty good. 

I mean our 45 FV rated guys on Fangrpahs start at our 6th rated prospect.

For the Braves and Twins they start with their 7th prospect. Cardinals at the 5th. Difference is we have two 60 guys and they have no more than one. Give me the high end talent over a system one or two guys deeper. 

Heck if you look at typical world series teams, of their starting 13 (the 8 positions and 5 stating positions) few have more than 3-5 guys that were homegrown. Look at Washington last year, four. 

Once you get the kind of core high end players its easy to find the second baseman to hit 8th. 

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1 hour ago, RatkoVarda said:

Lynn "I'm Retired" Henning

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/sports/mlb/tigers/2020/01/29/detroit-news-2020-top-50-detroit-tigers-prospects/4609703002/

new to me:

 38.  Martin Herrera: 19, 6-foot, 175, LH starter: He’s from Mexico and data is still raw. But left-handers get extra time, and Herrera’s one to study in 2020.

His list is really bad. He basically based it on last year’s performance vs potential. Which is why he has Daz Cameron at 29 and Nick Quintana at 30.

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I’ll be the first to admit that I don’t follow this as closely as I once did but I am curious about Riley Greene.  
 

The common theme with everything that I read about him is that he’s at least 3 years away.   If he’s as good as we hope then I don’t see why it would take him that long? 
 

Its not without precedent of players making their debuts at 19.  Soto, Acuna, Kershaw, Upton, Bumgarner are among the few that have done it.   There are plenty more that have done it at 20.   I can’t say that I see him playing up here this year and in the opening day lineup next year but its really not out of the realm of possibility and maybe should be likely if he’s a potential superstar.   

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10 hours ago, Longgone said:

I believe he's right handed.

Correct according to BBref and MLB. 

But apparently he bats LH.  

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6 hours ago, Hongbit said:

I’ll be the first to admit that I don’t follow this as closely as I once did but I am curious about Riley Greene.  
 

The common theme with everything that I read about him is that he’s at least 3 years away.   If he’s as good as we hope then I don’t see why it would take him that long? 
 

Its not without precedent of players making their debuts at 19.  Soto, Acuna, Kershaw, Upton, Bumgarner are among the few that have done it.   There are plenty more that have done it at 20.   I can’t say that I see him playing up here this year and in the opening day lineup next year but its really not out of the realm of possibility and maybe should be likely if he’s a potential superstar.   

Riley will probably start at A ball this season. Just to compare to guys who were at MLB at 20, Trout put up a 979 OPS at 18 in A ball and Upton was 971 at 19 in AA.. Riley had a good year last year but he is not quite on that kind of track unless he does even better coming out of the gate this year. In his month at A last season things had caught up to him a bit (OPS=622)

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11 hours ago, Keepleyland2 said:

To be fair, how many systems do you look at, see their 8th rated guy and be like "Yep he's a regular big leaguer?" One? maybe 2? 

Yes it would be nice to be a bitter deeper, but I think fans/some analysts get carried away with a deep system. Few have it, and often times having a high end is all that matters. If at any given point and time you look at someone's system and find 4 guys who later go on to have Nick C careers, you're usually doing pretty good. 

I mean our 45 FV rated guys on Fangrpahs start at our 6th rated prospect.

For the Braves and Twins they start with their 7th prospect. Cardinals at the 5th. Difference is we have two 60 guys and they have no more than one. Give me the high end talent over a system one or two guys deeper. 

Heck if you look at typical world series teams, of their starting 13 (the 8 positions and 5 stating positions) few have more than 3-5 guys that were homegrown. Look at Washington last year, four. 

Once you get the kind of core high end players its easy to find the second baseman to hit 8th. 

We will be in the top 3 after this draft and moving Boyd.

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10 hours ago, Tenacious D said:

His list is really bad. He basically based it on last year’s performance vs potential. Which is why he has Daz Cameron at 29 and Nick Quintana at 30.

He must be bored With his liberal Twitter commentary and constant Trump bashing.

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Randy Macho Man Savage, when he played minor league ball, hurt his shoulder so he taught himself to throw with the other one.

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32 minutes ago, Tim Mitchell said:

He must be bored With his liberal Twitter commentary and constant Trump bashing.

He recently announced that he was leaving Twitter.  The world just got a little better.

  • Like 1

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6 hours ago, Hongbit said:

I’ll be the first to admit that I don’t follow this as closely as I once did but I am curious about Riley Greene.  
 

The common theme with everything that I read about him is that he’s at least 3 years away.   If he’s as good as we hope then I don’t see why it would take him that long? 
 

Its not without precedent of players making their debuts at 19.  Soto, Acuna, Kershaw, Upton, Bumgarner are among the few that have done it.   There are plenty more that have done it at 20.   I can’t say that I see him playing up here this year and in the opening day lineup next year but its really not out of the realm of possibility and maybe should be likely if he’s a potential superstar.   

I think 22 is a fair thing for him

18-draft rookie

19-a ball

20aa

21-AAA/ majors.

 

That's a reasonable timeline for any high schooler and still puts him in the bigs at an age when many guys are just drafted. 

Now he could speed it up or slow it down with injuries. But four total years including his draft season is reasonable.

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19 minutes ago, Keepleyland2 said:

I think 22 is a fair thing for him

18-draft rookie

19-a ball

20aa

21ball

20a

21-AAA majors.

 

That's a reasonable timeline for any high schooler and still puts him in the bigs at an age when many guys are just drafted. 

Now he could speed it up or slow it down with injuries. But four total years including his draft season is reasonable.

Not sure what your numbers above are trying to picture?

Riley Greene is 19 years old ..will not be 20 until September 28, 2020.

If looking at no MLB until he turns 22 ..that would suggest minimum of opening day 2023.

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17 minutes ago, Tigrrfan said:

Not sure what your numbers above are trying to picture?

Riley Greene is 19 years old ..will not be 20 until September 28, 2020.

If looking at no MLB until he turns 22 ..that would suggest minimum of opening day 2023.

The numbers above would be his age 

Edit that I now see repeated on my phone for some reason

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A realistic view:

2020 West Michigan/Lakeland

2021 Lakeland/Erie

2022 Toledo/Detroit

2023 Detroit

The optimistic view:

2020 West Michigan/Lakeland

2021 Erie/Toledo

2022 Detroit

 

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You are looking for home runs in top 5 picks. "Realistically" if he only gets to Det on a "realistic" schedule, he is not going to be a player they can build around, he will just be another puzzle piece. If he is going to be a star, then odds are he will have to beat anything that looks a step by step climb to the majors.

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38 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

A realistic view:

2020 West Michigan/Lakeland

2021 Lakeland/Erie

2022 Toledo/Detroit

2023 Detroit

The optimistic view:

2020 West Michigan/Lakeland

2021 Erie/Toledo

2022 Detroit

 

See my thought is the optimist view should be:

2020 - Lakeland/Erie

2021 - Erie/Detroit

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

All I will say is an established major leaguer at age 22 is a great outcome for any draft pick.

That is true, but I am hoping for more than that from Greene - I'm hoping he's a star. Of course by the numbers he probably isn't going to be but he has been good enough so far to keep some hope alive he is something special.

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9 minutes ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

All I will say is an established major leaguer at age 22 is a great outcome for any draft pick.

Yeah, that would be a good outcome.  

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11 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

That is true, but I am hoping for more than that from Greene - I'm hoping he's a star. Of course by the numbers he probably isn't going to be but he has been good enough so far to keep some hope alive he is something special.

he can still be a star, or special, on a normal development timeline.

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2 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

he can still be a star, or special, on a normal development timeline.

anything can happen, but the best hitters arrive fast.  If he is not one of the best, that doesn't mean it can't still be a great pick for the Tigers, it just won't have be a pick where they got a franchise player. They get another shot at that this year and may already have one in Mize but the more the merrier!

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9 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

anything can happen, but the best hitters arrive fast.  If he is not one of the best, that doesn't mean it can't still be a great pick for the Tigers, it just won't have be a pick where they got a franchise player. They get another shot at that this year and may already have one in Mize but the more the merrier!

if they take one of the college bats, they should arrive more quickly than Greene.

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