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RatkoVarda

2020 Tiger Prospects

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3 hours ago, Gehringer_2 said:

IDK - what holds Castro back as SS?. He shows every indication of being able to OPS 750 in the majors - what more you want from a SS who can field - and the reporting is that with his bad habits behind him he is a good fielder? Sure, if we sign another Tulowitzki Castro is a bench player, but how likely is that? If anything the Tigers have had a penchant for letting the perfect be the enemy of the good when it comes to shortstops.

Reyes continues to improve virtually every month he plays the game. I'm going to continue to pencil him in until he at least show signs he is plateauing, which he hasn't yet. Maybe by June he'll be a pumpkin  - we'll see.

If he hits. 750 then great, but that seems optimistic.  I am thinking more like low .700s which would be good enough if he develops a plus glove.  

I don't really see anything in Reyes.  No power, no walks, not a great fielder.  

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Verlander who?

Jake with a HR in his first ST AB. And two appearances by Perez and he still isn't on the DL. Avila is a genius!

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42 minutes ago, tiger337 said:

If he hits. 750 then great, but that seems optimistic.  I am thinking more like low .700s which would be good enough if he develops a plus glove.  

I don't really see anything in Reyes.  No power, no walks, not a great fielder.  

With Reyes I'm just looking at his progression though the year. Most young players either finish flat or more often trending downward as the grind and the scouting reports take their toll. Reyes' game just kept improving. There was a lot of BaBIP in that, but he was also hitting the ball harder more often. Which month of the season is the real guy? or have we yet seen the real guy? I'm looking for progress in a player. Maybe that is the wrong approach, but it is why I want to play Reyes until he proves last fall was fool's gold but I don't much care about giving Stewart a whole lot more look.

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When Mize and Skubal don’t come north to Cleveland I riot. Who’s with me?

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15 minutes ago, thefunk said:

When Mize and Skubal don’t come north to Cleveland I riot. Who’s with me?

Rather not see any of them until next year, unless they are totally dominating in AAA, or the Tigers are in a pennant race in September.

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I still think the 1st one up will be Faedo -  not because he will outperform the others by any stretch of the imagination,  but just because he is the one with the least left to accomplish in the minors. 

The last few games Dan has been talking a lot about too many OFs - all of whom logically should go to Toledo. Someone, or more, is either going back to AA or getting DFA'd.

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4 hours ago, Gehringer_2 said:

Sure, we can read things in a number of ways. To me that latter statement is more a matter of trying to attach himself to previous success as a matter of pleading organization credibility more than as matter of model. I say that because if you read it as you suggest, he would be contradicting himself from the front half to the back half. By saying he is building for long term sustainable success it seems to me he is pretty explicitly saying he is not going to do what his father did - otherwise why stress it so?. But who knows, we are just tea-leaf reading here.

Oh, I don't know about contradiction, necessarily. Chris could be honestly parsimonious on the front end since throwing money at random big league quality players today doesn't serve the strategy of tanking for picks, while opening up the wallet and throwing a boatload of money at random big league quality players on the back end to serve the strategy of Going For It, because that's how we've always done it here.

All that said, my bet is that he's going to be more parsimonious on the back end than some Tiger fans would like. I believe using buzz phrases like "building for long term sustainable success" is the kind of empty suit speak that even the worst organizations engage in without irony.

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You wonder what it will take for AA to get fired. His drafts consist of hitting on a top ten overall pick and missing from there on, with Skubal the notable exception. And they haven't been hitting on any July signings lately either. They really need to have some sort of success with Campos, de la Cruz, or someone else soon.

I was looking at the BA's top international prospects that signed with clubs for the summer of 2018. The year the Tigers finished last and had the highest draft pool. They signed the 18th (de la Cruz) and the 38th (Reyes) rated prospects. The top ten included Marco Luciano, Noelvi Marte, and Francisco Alvarez, among others. Any of those 3 guys would slot ahead of Paredes as the teams top position prospect. They are losing out on top talent by their spread the wealth approach. I don't know how Jimmy Johnson's chart applies to international signings, but targeting top talent seems to be working for other teams. Does it make sense to trade the number one pick in the rule IV draft for pick 18 and 38?

 

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1 hour ago, Longgone said:

Rather not see any of them until next year, unless they are totally dominating in AAA, or the Tigers are in a pennant race in September.

I don't think the pennant race, or lack thereof, has anything to do with September. We're seeing Mize & Manning this year as soon as call-ups are allowed. Perhaps before then if we hit on the trade deadline and AA decides these guys are ready at that time. We may even see Skubal in September... I just don't want to put money on that just yet...

I don't think we see Faedo until after May next year... Just a guess...

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I think they will be up when they are ready for the majors regardless of timing.

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6 minutes ago, 84 Lives!!! said:

I don't think the pennant race, or lack thereof, has anything to do with September. We're seeing Mize & Manning this year as soon as call-ups are allowed. Perhaps before then if we hit on the trade deadline and AA decides these guys are ready at that time. We may even see Skubal in September... I just don't want to put money on that just yet...

I don't think we see Faedo until after May next year... Just a guess...

I heard that teams can only call up 3 players on September 1, so that will have an impact on who they select.

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9 minutes ago, tiger337 said:

I think they will be up when they are ready for the majors regardless of timing.

Same here.

Which is why I pointed out the trade deadline.

Good time to move out dead weight and bring up new blood...

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32 minutes ago, 84 Lives!!! said:

I don't think the pennant race, or lack thereof, has anything to do with September. We're seeing Mize & Manning this year as soon as call-ups are allowed. Perhaps before then if we hit on the trade deadline and AA decides these guys are ready at that time. We may even see Skubal in September... I just don't want to put money on that just yet...

I don't think we see Faedo until after May next year... Just a guess...

Why I said I want to see them dominate in AAA first. If not there's no sense starting the clock.

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1 hour ago, Longgone said:

Why I said I want to see them dominate in AAA first. If not there's no sense starting the clock.

RIght. I think there is a foregone conclusion that since Mize already has 3 solid pitches he will dominate AAA, but I think Mize is probably the least likely to see Det for more than something like a two start 'hello there' like JV got, just because his innings limit is not going to allow him to pitch in September unless they do something to hold it down all summer. I suppose you could bring him to Det then shut him down in Sept for one of the other guys that is ready, but what team  ever  operates that way?

As I understand it Manning and Skubal still have 3rd pitch mastery to gain. I think the team will hold them at AAA until that is proven even if they are having success against AAA hitters without it. OTOH,  IF Faedo is successful at Toledo early he should be ready to call up in terms being the most finished product. 

All this assumes they will be looking for Zimmermann's replacement within a month of the opener.......xD

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4 hours ago, Stanley68 said:

You wonder what it will take for AA to get fired. His drafts consist of hitting on a top ten overall pick and missing from there on, with Skubal the notable exception. And they haven't been hitting on any July signings lately either. They really need to have some sort of success with Campos, de la Cruz, or someone else soon.

I was looking at the BA's top international prospects that signed with clubs for the summer of 2018. The year the Tigers finished last and had the highest draft pool. They signed the 18th (de la Cruz) and the 38th (Reyes) rated prospects. The top ten included Marco Luciano, Noelvi Marte, and Francisco Alvarez, among others. Any of those 3 guys would slot ahead of Paredes as the teams top position prospect. They are losing out on top talent by their spread the wealth approach. I don't know how Jimmy Johnson's chart applies to international signings, but targeting top talent seems to be working for other teams. Does it make sense to trade the number one pick in the rule IV draft for pick 18 and 38?

 

Too early to say they haven't been hitting on the international signings yet.

Also worth noting the international signings aren't really a true free agency. The Tigers having the biggest bonus pool doesn't mean they'll be able to offer the top guy a bigger bonus and sign him.

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Just watched the replay of Rogers HR. Nice clean approach and weight transfer without the leg kick. Give the guy credit for making a pretty large change in his approach 5 yrs into his career. But another case of "where was the coaching he got now, then?". Both with Houston and in Det.

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15 minutes ago, TigerNation said:

Too early to say they haven't been hitting on the international signings yet.

Also worth noting the international signings aren't really a true free agency. The Tigers having the biggest bonus pool doesn't mean they'll be able to offer the top guy a bigger bonus and sign him.

And they've had the smaller pool, until this upcoming year.

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4 hours ago, Stanley68 said:

You wonder what it will take for AA to get fired. His drafts consist of hitting on a top ten overall pick and missing from there on, with Skubal the notable exception.

 

IDK - I count twelve players from Avila's drafts since '16 that have appeared in games this spring with the main club so far, so they haven't all washed out yet.

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2 hours ago, Gehringer_2 said:

Just watched the replay of Rogers HR. Nice clean approach and weight transfer without the leg kick. Give the guy credit for making a pretty large change in his approach 5 yrs into his career. But another case of "where was the coaching he got now, then?". Both with Houston and in Det.

Perhaps it was prompted by his utter embarrassment in the MLB.

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33 minutes ago, socaltiger said:

Perhaps it was prompted by his utter embarrassment in the MLB.

And, one HR not withstanding, the fact is it may not make any difference - the leg kick may not have been the reason he can't hit MLB pitching, but at least he has eliminated one factor.

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7 hours ago, TigerNation said:

Too early to say they haven't been hitting on the international signings yet.

Also worth noting the international signings aren't really a true free agency. The Tigers having the biggest bonus pool doesn't mean they'll be able to offer the top guy a bigger bonus and sign him.

That especially true when the international signing process is like college football recruiting. You have to spend years building up relationships with the powers that be and the players. So, when you suddenly have a large bonus pool, it’s hard to really use it. 
 

The tigers are paying the price for not taking advantage of the old rules like many other teams did. And I suspect that by not getting as involved as they could have back then, they are suffering today from a lack of established relationships.

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16 hours ago, tiger337 said:

If he hits. 750

If he hits .750, he ought to have one stellar OPS.

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7 hours ago, Gehringer_2 said:

IDK - I count twelve players from Avila's drafts since '16 that have appeared in games this spring with the main club so far, so they haven't all washed out yet.

Well, but the rest of the team sucks, so....

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1 hour ago, Shelton said:

That especially true when the international signing process is like college football recruiting. You have to spend years building up relationships with the powers that be and the players. So, when you suddenly have a large bonus pool, it’s hard to really use it. 
 

The tigers are paying the price for not taking advantage of the old rules like many other teams did. And I suspect that by not getting as involved as they could have back then, they are suffering today from a lack of established relationships.

Also, like college football recruiting, those relationships aren't all savory and above board.

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