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RatkoVarda

2020 Tiger Prospects

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I think I'm higher on Meadows than most but I think he's the guy that I will be paying attention to the most this year.  Aside from Greene I think he is the one position player in the system that could potentially be a star.    I thought Daz could potentially be one of those guys but I'm losing faith in him, still think he could be solid but I don't think he has that All Star potential like I hoped for.   

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According to how Fangraphs looks at Future Value (FV), they don't project our top 5 to be much more than average major leagers.

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3 hours ago, RatkoVarda said:

This is the projected 2023 Tiger lineup I saw on the 'free' portion in that link:

Catcher: Jake Rogers (28)
First Base: Jeimer Candelario (29)
Second Base: Niko Goodrum (31)
Third Base: Isaac Paredes (24)
Shortstop: Willi Castro (26)
Left Field: Daz Cameron (26)
Center Field: Victor Reyes (28)
Right Field: Riley Greene (22)
Designated Hitter: Christin Stewart (29)

No. 1 Starter: Casey Mize (25)
No. 2 Starter: Matt Manning (25)
No. 3 Starter: Tarik Skubal (25)
No. 4 Starter: Alex Faedo (27)
No. 5 Starter: Spencer Turnbull (30)
Closer: Zack Hess (26)

 

2023 is 4 seasons out into the future.   Highly doubt Stewart, V Reyes, Candelario, and Goodrum are still with the Tigers then.  Also highly doubt all 5 of those prospective starters are wearing the Old English 'D' then.  There will have to be some trades to bring this team into serious competitiveness. 

I can imagine that only 5 of those 15 players will be Tigers in 2023 ..Greene, Paredes, Mize, Manning, & Skubal.

Highly talented and still-young-enough available FA's between now and 2023 could include RF Mookie Betts, SS Carlos Correa, and SP Noah Snydergard.  But highly unlikely any of those three would be signed by the miser Little 'i'.

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8 minutes ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

4 years out projected line-ups are meaningless.  I frankly don't understand the appeal of them.

I totally agree.  I do like to look out into the future now and then ..but realistically ..nobody actually can discern with any certainty what the Tiger's lineup & starting staff will be even looking to mid-season this year.  In fact, while I could speculate, ..this year's opening day team still has a sizable degree of uncertainty.

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10 minutes ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

4 years out projected line-ups are meaningless.  I frankly don't understand the appeal of them.

It’s a novelty that baseball America has done forever. I meant to comment on this last night, because I agree that it is meaningless, but they do provide some entertainment value. 
 

Obviously, it can never be accurate because it assumes no players get added to the system. And it tends to assume all players, even players that become free agents, remain with the team. That’s not always the case, though. If a particular team seems very likely to trade a player away or let a guy leave via free agency, then they aren’t included. 
 

That said, I do think they are somewhat useful in helping illustrate the depth of the system at each position. When you have crappy guys projected to still be with the team, it’s a good illustration that the system has nothing much at that particular position. 

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15 minutes ago, Shelton said:

That said, I do think they are somewhat useful in helping illustrate the depth of the system at each position. When you have crappy guys projected to still be with the team, it’s a good illustration that the system has nothing much at that particular position. 

 

I think this is an important piece of this exercise, however futile and ultimately meaningless it may be in total. I say that particularly as it relates to the current evaluation of where the Tigers are in their rebuilding effort. It's great to get excited that the club consistently has 4-5 guys in the Top 100 lists at the various outlets, but an exercise like this depth chart or starting lineup evaluation shows how quickly that depth falls apart, and how focused their talent is in limited positions. Beyond the top 4-5 guys, the risk level and overall projection of the following players falls off dramatically. Even if you're a big Daz, Paredes, Meadows, or Faedo believer and want to suggest it's not a steep decline to that crew, once you get past that crop of players the drop-off is borderline tragic. You're really quickly into a range of player that projects as a fringe MLBer with considerable risk parameters. That's not good, folks.

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1 hour ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

4 years out projected line-ups are meaningless.  I frankly don't understand the appeal of them.

The appeal is that they are fun to imagine, but I agree that they are meaningless.  The majority of those players won't be part of the regular line-up and rotation in four years due to injuries, failures, trades and free agent signings.  The same can be said of most teams.   

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30 minutes ago, Microline133 said:

 

I think this is an important piece of this exercise, however futile and ultimately meaningless it may be in total. I say that particularly as it relates to the current evaluation of where the Tigers are in their rebuilding effort. It's great to get excited that the club consistently has 4-5 guys in the Top 100 lists at the various outlets, but an exercise like this depth chart or starting lineup evaluation shows how quickly that depth falls apart, and how focused their talent is in limited positions. Beyond the top 4-5 guys, the risk level and overall projection of the following players falls off dramatically. Even if you're a big Daz, Paredes, Meadows, or Faedo believer and want to suggest it's not a steep decline to that crew, once you get past that crop of players the drop-off is borderline tragic. You're really quickly into a range of player that projects as a fringe MLBer with considerable risk parameters. That's not good, folks.

Yeah, like so many things in baseball, prospect distribution tends to fit a bell curve. If you have a .500 team and a top ten system, you are probably fine. If you have the worst team in baseball, you pretty much need the top system. Top ten ain’t good enough. 
 

they need to get lucky this year. 

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My rose-colored glasses make me hope someone, somehow from the last couple Rounds 2-10 on the position player side surfaces and surprises by then. Be it a college player like Clemens or Quintana, or HS like Meadows or Liniak.  On the pitching side, if Wentz builds on what he did in Erie, he could be in that SP mix.  And the wild card Perez.  If Fulmer, Boyd, and even Norris aren't in that picture, hopefully they were traded for strong returns.  Again these are rose-colored glasses.

If The Big 3 are providing 600 innings of their potential production at age 25, the Tigers will probably have gotten back into the major free agent game for hitting.  As it stands, that list would make a pretty low payroll in '23.

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And we could/should expect this year's 1-1 to be up by then if it's one of the big 3 college guys.

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4 minutes ago, Los Gatos said:

, if Wentz builds on what he did in Erie, he could be in that SP mix. 

it's only 5 games, but Wentz was also ridiculous good at Erie

if he did that after joining the Astros or Dodgers, people would rightly credit the new organization

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51 minutes ago, Microline133 said:

 

I think this is an important piece of this exercise, however futile and ultimately meaningless it may be in total. I say that particularly as it relates to the current evaluation of where the Tigers are in their rebuilding effort. It's great to get excited that the club consistently has 4-5 guys in the Top 100 lists at the various outlets, but an exercise like this depth chart or starting lineup evaluation shows how quickly that depth falls apart, and how focused their talent is in limited positions. Beyond the top 4-5 guys, the risk level and overall projection of the following players falls off dramatically. Even if you're a big Daz, Paredes, Meadows, or Faedo believer and want to suggest it's not a steep decline to that crew, once you get past that crop of players the drop-off is borderline tragic. You're really quickly into a range of player that projects as a fringe MLBer with considerable risk parameters. That's not good, folks.

It is concerning that the system isn't in better shape considering we really haven't had any major graduations in a few years, have picked early a couple years now and with the exception of Boyd traded away any major assets we had on the Major League team.   It's still a lot better than it was say 3-4 years ago but not as good nor deep as I would've liked considering the things I mentioned above.   Hopefully we'll have a great draft this June and some of the younger guys in the system will take big steps forward.  

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25 minutes ago, Shelton said:

Yeah, like so many things in baseball, prospect distribution tends to fit a bell curve.

This is the question I am interested in - does the general state of your MiLB system actually correlate with your success at finding MLB players or not? Intuitively you would think it does, but I think it's not hard to imagine reasons it is not necessarily.

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13 minutes ago, RatkoVarda said:

it's only 5 games, but Wentz was also ridiculous good at Erie

if he did that after joining the Astros or Dodgers, people would rightly credit the new organization

Yeah, his walk rate at Erie was sick.  If he or the Tigers discovered something that can be sustained, it's exciting.  His H/IP and K/IP track record has always been solid.  Looking like a great trade for AA.

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23 minutes ago, RatkoVarda said:

Lynn "I'm Retired" Henning

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/sports/mlb/tigers/2020/01/29/detroit-news-2020-top-50-detroit-tigers-prospects/4609703002/

new to me:

 38.  Martin Herrera: 19, 6-foot, 175, LH starter: He’s from Mexico and data is still raw. But left-handers get extra time, and Herrera’s one to study in 2020.

I believe he's right handed.

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