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2020 Offseason (all the way up to the Draft)

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31 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

Because it is a stupid idea? It is much more likely Tua won't ever be as good as Stafford. Stafford isn't exactly at the end of his career either. You don't draft your backup QB with the 3rd overall pick.

Cmon man.  You are just being argumentative now.   If they draft Tua, Stafford would be moved by the end of next season at the latest.  He wouldn’t be drafted to be the backup.   
 

There are very few sure things.  Tua may be a bust just the same as Stafford may start to struggle as he gets older.   Every move has a large element of chance.   It was much more likely that Mahomes and Jackson wouldn’t ever be as good as Stafford.  Those worked out.   Jamais, Mariota, Wentz and Goff were all supposed to be better than Stafford and have not.   

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What team trades a QB of Stafford's caliber still in the prime of their career to draft not the number one QB but the number two QB coming off injury? The only one that comes close is Denver trading Cutler and that didn't work out. That seems like a same old Lions move. Stafford goes on to have playoff success with another franchise while the Lions get Joey Harrington 2.0. 

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Just now, Hongbit said:

Cmon man.  You are just being argumentative now.   If they draft Tua, Stafford would be moved by the end of next season at the latest.  He wouldn’t be drafted to be the backup.   
 

There are very few sure things.  Tua may be a bust just the same as Stafford may start to struggle as he gets older.   Every move has a large element of chance.   It was much more likely that Mahomes and Jackson wouldn’t ever be as good as Stafford.  Those worked out.   Jamais, Mariota, Wentz and Goff were all supposed to be better than Stafford and have not.   

There are very few sure things but Stafford is one of the surest and you don't just trade that away. 

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How sure is he though at this point given the serious nature of the back injury? Many of us criticized him royally in 2018 for his performance and then it came out that he had a significant back injury. The reasoning for that poor performance was evidently related to the back injury we didn't know about until season's end. Now, that same or similar back injury (the organization said it was different I guess) kept him out for half the season this year. Injuries are a part of the game and just as Tua's injury is a cause for concern as to why we shouldn't draft him, Stafford's injury may also be a cause for concern as to why we may not want to build are entire future around him.

Sure, Stafford is proven and Tua is not. But Stafford is also on the wrong side of 30 and Tua is not. You have to be willing, to a point, to be aggressive in the NFL. I suppose Green Bay could have passed on Aaron Rodgers and stayed with Brett Farve and there would have been a group of Packers fans believing that was the right move. Aaron Rodgers could have been a complete bust, but the Packers felt confident as an organization and made the move, just as we could here.

That said, I do not want this regime to take Tua and then use that as an excuse for having another 2-3-4 years to build around him. I think Quinn  would fail to build a good, complete team around the guy and Patrica would still be trotting out the same failed philosophy and scheme.

Also, Tua easily has the talent to be the #1 QB in this draft ahead of Burrow. It isn't like there is a mile long gap between Tua and Burrow.

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51 minutes ago, six-hopper said:

How many seasons combined does Hockenson get to reach those numbers?

Presuming he has a competent QB throwing to him and a good OC (Bevell or otherwise) calling the plays, I would say it is fair to expect him to be a 1,000 yard 6/8/10 TD guy by his third year. Gronk was a 1,000 yard receiver by year two. Given that we were sold the idea that he is supposed to be Gronkowski 2.0 (Mel Kiper's words, not mine) year two isn't out of the question either. If it takes him a while to reach that plateau but he gives this franchise the sustained success and longevity of a Jason Witten that will also impact him being a success or not. I'd certainly feel a lot better if we were sitting here 12 years from now talking about Hockenson as a Jason Witten type player and not a Brandon Pettigrew.

It will also be important to see how guys who were chosen after him perform. Many of us were begging for a defensive player: Sweat, Burns, Oliver, and Bush in particular. If those players end up being markedly better than him, just as Aaron Donald was compared to Ebron, that will play a role in how we judge Hockenson as well.

Just speaking for myself, short of him ending up Tony Gonzalez, Rob Gronkowski or Jason Witten, I will always be jaded and view this as a terrible decision by Bob Quinn.

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Don't start with Aaron Rodgers. There are major differences.

1. Brett Favre was entering his age 36 season. Stafford is entering his age 32 season. Favre was 4 years older and moving out of his prime. There were rumors about whether Favre was going to retire or not. There are no indications Stafford is considering retirement.

2. The Packers were picking 24th and not 3rd. Rodgers was widely considered a top 10 pick and even the number 1 overall pick. Nobody is considering Tua to be the number 1 overall pick. Rodgers at 24 was considered incredible value. Tua at 3 is where he is expected to go.

3. Aaron Rodgers wasn't coming off serious injury. Tua is coming off injury.

4. They didn't trade Favre to make room for Rodgers. Rodgers was the backup QB for 3 seasons. As mentioned earlier, Tua isn't going to be drafted 3rd overall to be the backup QB.

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24 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

Don't start with Aaron Rodgers. There are major differences.

1. Brett Favre was entering his age 36 season. Stafford is entering his age 32 season. Favre was 4 years older and moving out of his prime. There were rumors about whether Favre was going to retire or not. There are no indications Stafford is considering retirement.

2. The Packers were picking 24th and not 3rd. Rodgers was widely considered a top 10 pick and even the number 1 overall pick. Nobody is considering Tua to be the number 1 overall pick. Rodgers at 24 was considered incredible value. Tua at 3 is where he is expected to go.

3. Aaron Rodgers wasn't coming off serious injury. Tua is coming off injury.

4. They didn't trade Favre to make room for Rodgers. Rodgers was the backup QB for 3 seasons. As mentioned earlier, Tua isn't going to be drafted 3rd overall to be the backup QB.

yes.  

and guys, there will be another tua next year.  and likely the year after that too.

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8 minutes ago, Buddha said:

yes.  

and guys, there will be another tua next year.  and likely the year after that too.

This what I'm trying to understand. What makes Tua this special prospect that you dump Stafford for? There is a Tua in every draft. What makes him better than Mariota? Why not just sign Mariota and trade Stafford?

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2 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

This what I'm trying to understand. What makes Tua this special prospect that you dump Stafford for? There is a Tua in every draft. What makes him better than Mariota? Why not just sign Mariota and trade Stafford?

I think if you view Tua as a tier 1 draft prospect, the thinking is that you don’t k ow when you might be picking in the top 3 or whatever and in position to get a tier 1 draft prospect. 
 

There will obviously be other Tua types in future years, but will you be picking high enough to get him? Probably not. 

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10 minutes ago, Shelton said:

I think if you view Tua as a tier 1 draft prospect, the thinking is that you don’t k ow when you might be picking in the top 3 or whatever and in position to get a tier 1 draft prospect. 
 

There will obviously be other Tua types in future years, but will you be picking high enough to get him? Probably not. 

In that case, it means they are winning and don't need Tua. I find it hard to believe they won't have another opportunity to draft Tua. They can do what the Colts did after Peyton Manning went down.

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15 minutes ago, Shelton said:

I think if you view Tua as a tier 1 draft prospect, the thinking is that you don’t k ow when you might be picking in the top 3 or whatever and in position to get a tier 1 draft prospect. 
 

There will obviously be other Tua types in future years, but will you be picking high enough to get him? Probably not. 

its the lions.  they will picking high enough.

as we've noted, if stafford goes down, they wont win anything and will be picking top 3 for sure.

maybe even in a year when the second best qb prospect isnt coming off a potential career threatening hip injury?

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3 hours ago, Shelton said:

I think if you view Tua as a tier 1 draft prospect, the thinking is that you don’t k ow when you might be picking in the top 3 or whatever and in position to get a tier 1 draft prospect. 
 

There will obviously be other Tua types in future years, but will you be picking high enough to get him? Probably not. 

I think the key to reaching the correct decision is to understand where Stafford is more than who Tua is. Stafford has had two years of back trouble. To the outside observer of professional athletes that looks like a pretty bad prognosis - bad enough that you don't want to pass on the chance for a QB at #3. OTOH, if the Lions know that the injuries are actually unrelated, the there will be no increased risk of re-injury to Matt going forward, then a healthy QB of Stafford's ability at 31/32 is still too young to be looking at reloading there instead of using the pick to build to win with him. What is making the question so debatable is that we don't really know which scenario is correct, or if there is good certainty about Stafford's health available even to the Lions.

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How would people feel if say Herbert, Frohm or any other of the non Tua/Burrows QBs slid ala Aaron Rodgers to the back end of the first or early 2nd.

Would you entertain picking them with our 2nd pick or even trading up to get them if they were sitting there still in say the mid 20s?   

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While Young seems to be a no-brainer if Washington gets stupid, beyond that I like Jeudy and Okudah, followed by Brown in a bit of a distant 3rd. None would necessarily upset me, but I think Jeudy could be a phenomenal talent and Okudah could turn our secondary from middling to great across from Slay. Brown is great, and I think could be an impact-maker for years to come, but as others have said I am looking for the players that will change a game at #3.

In looking at free agency also, there seems to be more names (and bigger names) available on the defensive side. Makes me lean Jeudy even more.

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2 hours ago, RandyMarsh said:

How would people feel if say Herbert, Frohm or any other of the non Tua/Burrows QBs slid ala Aaron Rodgers to the back end of the first or early 2nd.

Would you entertain picking them with our 2nd pick or even trading up to get them if they were sitting there still in say the mid 20s?   

Generally I would be okay with picking a Jimmy Garoppolo type at 35, but I don't think Quintricia are in the position to make that move being under win-now orders. Also, Stafford will be five years younger than Brady was when the Patriots selected Garappolo, so I don't think it will happen unless they do worry his career will be cut short.

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I think people will be disappointed in the trade value with the #3 pick. Outside of Miami, none of the teams interested in a QB have a lot of trade assets. Miami may be content to draft Herbert 5th. The Chargers don't have extra picks but you may be able to get a 2021 1st which you can flip to trade back into the first round.

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I wouldn't want Quinn trading down from #3. He’d likely do some ridiculous reach again

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7 minutes ago, number20 said:

I wouldn't want Quinn trading down from #3. He’d likely do some ridiculous reach again

What is the ridiculous reach he has done before in the 1st round? Why wouldn't he then reach at #3? 

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1 hour ago, number20 said:

I wouldn't want Quinn trading down from #3. He’d likely do some ridiculous reach again

If you keep the trade down to top 7 picks: we'll end up with the choice of whoever falls between Tua, Jeudy, Okudah, Brown, Andrew Thomas.

Pick up an extra 2020 2nd and 2021 3rd rounder to pick #5 to #7, I do it.

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I'm beginning to like Jeudy and I don't believe he makes it past the Giants. Brown at 6 could be worth taking. Miami probably takes Herbert at 5th if the Chargers jump them. Lions would probably have their choice of Okudah or Brown.

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I think the chances are very high that Burrow and Tua go 1-2.   Young is on the board for the Lions and they happily snatch him up.  
 

I’m assuming someone will trade up with the Skins but don’t count them out in standing pat and taking Tua.  New regime and they could easily move on from Haskins just like the Cardinals did last year with Murray and Rosen. 

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If you're 100% against drafting Tua and Stafford continues to have significant injury concerns that cause next season to be another 2-3-4 win season, will you be against taking Trevor Lawrence or the best QB prospect in next years draft?

If the logic is that Tua or any QB may not be as good or half as good as Stafford, to me, it seems we cannot take a 1st round QB until we officially know Stafford's career is over.

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2 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

If you're 100% against drafting Tua and Stafford continues to have significant injury concerns that cause next season to be another 2-3-4 win season, will you be against taking Trevor Lawrence or the best QB prospect in next years draft?

If the logic is that Tua or any QB may not be as good or half as good as Stafford, to me, it seems we cannot take a 1 st round QB until we officially know Stafford's career is over.

Well, if Stafford has another significant injury next season that is related to these, then that is another year of data which obviously impacts the thought process.  I am completely against drafting a QB at 3 this year.  However, in the scenario you laid out, next year could be a possibility.  I'm also definitely against taking Tua at 3 as he also has very significant injury concerns.  If Stafford has back issues again next season and we end up in the top of the draft again and Lawrence and Fields continue on the path they have been (and have no significant injury issues themselves) I'm all for considering one of them.

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25 minutes ago, 4hzglory said:

Well, if Stafford has another significant injury next season that is related to these, then that is another year of data which obviously impacts the thought process.  I am completely against drafting a QB at 3 this year.  However, in the scenario you laid out, next year could be a possibility.  I'm also definitely against taking Tua at 3 as he also has very significant injury concerns.  If Stafford has back issues again next season and we end up in the top of the draft again and Lawrence and Fields continue on the path they have been (and have no significant injury issues themselves) I'm all for considering one of them.

This is the correct answer. Also if you draft Jeudy this year, that's another weapon then for your new rookie QB.

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