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Detroit Tigers Rule 5 Draft

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9 minutes ago, Los Gatos said:

they should have picked 4-6 guys with hope that 2-3 might materialize.

I think people over value rule 5 guys, there is a reason they are often still in the minor leagues after six years. Your lucky if you get one Ledezma out of an entire Rule 5 class

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1 hour ago, Keepleyland2 said:

I think people over value rule 5 guys, there is a reason they are often still in the minor leagues after six years. Your lucky if you get one Ledezma out of an entire Rule 5 class

Not over-valuing, but it's not worth dismissing.  Fact is, some Rule 5 players have panned out, some very well.  Long odds, yes.

They gave Agrazal an MLB roster spot and really, what separates him from guys like Garcia, Sharp, Bailey, even Brown who wasn't drafted.  MiLB option(s).  On the 2020 Tigers, who cares about that.  They could have added multiple players and worst case you're out 50K per after an extended audition.  Even if only 1 works out, it was worth it.  Terrible teams should load up on the Rule 5.

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4 hours ago, Los Gatos said:

Not over-valuing, but it's not worth dismissing.  Fact is, some Rule 5 players have panned out, some very well.  Long odds, yes.

They gave Agrazal an MLB roster spot and really, what separates him from guys like Garcia, Sharp, Bailey, even Brown who wasn't drafted.  MiLB option(s).  On the 2020 Tigers, who cares about that.  They could have added multiple players and worst case you're out 50K per after an extended audition.  Even if only 1 works out, it was worth it.  Terrible teams should load up on the Rule 5.

In most cases, the player you would have to dfa would have more value than anyone available in Rule 5, plus you don’t necessarily have to keep them on the 25 man roster.

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I can't argue with the Rony Garcia pick. He is a guy that *maybe* flipped a switch last season. The O's can't know for sure and either do the Tigers but the O's decided it wasn't worth the other player they protected instead to find out for sure.

If he did, the Tigers have a potentially useful player. If not, the O's made the right move. That's about as good a scenario for making a Rule 5 pick as you are likely to get.

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42 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

I can't argue with the Rony Garcia pick. He is a guy that *maybe* flipped a switch last season. The O's can't know for sure and either do the Tigers but the O's decided it wasn't worth the other player they protected instead to find out for sure.

If he did, the Tigers have a potentially useful player. If not, the O's made the right move. That's about as good a scenario for making a Rule 5 pick as you are likely to get.

He was a Yankee, not an Oriole 

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6 hours ago, Los Gatos said:

Not over-valuing, but it's not worth dismissing.  Fact is, some Rule 5 players have panned out, some very well.  Long odds, yes.

They gave Agrazal an MLB roster spot and really, what separates him from guys like Garcia, Sharp, Bailey, even Brown who wasn't drafted.  MiLB option(s).  On the 2020 Tigers, who cares about that.  They could have added multiple players and worst case you're out 50K per after an extended audition.  Even if only 1 works out, it was worth it.  Terrible teams should load up on the Rule 5.

Based on this post you are way overvaluing them. 

Loading up on a bunch of guys who hit .250 at A ball or had a 4.5 era is not gonna lead to a succesful team today or in the future.

I don't mind taking one, but several or "some have panned out, some very well" is not true nor a good strategy. 

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3 hours ago, Tenacious D said:

He was a Yankee, not an Oriole 

Oops - -right - the other Garcia was the O. I guess it wasn't enough trying to corner the market on Castros, Garcias are apparently up next....

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They've also cornered the market on Kalines, Gibsons and Verlanders but the second phase ain't working out all that well

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11 hours ago, chasfh said:

Dan Szymborski's 2020 projections for Rule V pitcher picks.

1990081348_ronygarciaprojection.jpg.17dce08c7f253bdfbbe759ae2d64f6b8.jpg

he'll fit right in.

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2 hours ago, Keepleyland2 said:

 "some have panned out, some very well" is not true

Sure about that? 

Perhaps I'm over-valuing the Rule 5; everyone has an opinion.  My intent is not to imply it's a sure-fire treasure chest.  The Tigers, sadly, are in a position where the potential reward (against long odds, yes) could outweigh the cost (minimal) or risk (none, really).  They need to add more talent, and the Rule 5 could - could - be an avenue to do that, along with others.

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12 minutes ago, AlaskanTigersFan said:

I really wish I knew how they came up with these projections.........

In Rony Garcia's case it conceivable he mows down hitters in ST and they try him as a starter, but probably much more likely that he ends up working relief - in which case the  projection is a miss

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20 hours ago, Los Gatos said:

24 starts seems a little aggressive.

Yup, agree.  I'm not sure how to take the rest of that line.  I'd think he's more in line of a multi inning reliever (maybe once through the order), which kind of changes the work load from starting and facing hitters multiple times.

Edit:  I see @Gehringer_2 beat me to it.

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10 hours ago, Los Gatos said:

Sure about that? 

Perhaps I'm over-valuing the Rule 5; everyone has an opinion.  My intent is not to imply it's a sure-fire treasure chest.  The Tigers, sadly, are in a position where the potential reward (against long odds, yes) could outweigh the cost (minimal) or risk (none, really).  They need to add more talent, and the Rule 5 could - could - be an avenue to do that, along with others.

Again, yes I am sure. On MLB.com's list of rule 5 success is Willy Taveras. 8 is Jay Gibbons. It's like pinning some hope on the 27th round pick. 

And there is risk as somsone else pointed out the Rule 5 pick is gonna be no better than someone like Jones or Stewart or the pitcher we picked up from the pirates. But, we don't have to keep those guys on the 25 man all year. 

Taking one is fine. The tigers do need talent. Thinking the Rule 5 is that avenue and we should take several is silly. 

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On 12/15/2019 at 10:24 AM, chasfh said:

One funny thing about Szymborski is that he still uses spreadsheets to do this which must be a huge pain.  It's funny because trads always used to tell sabers to "put down your spreadsheets and watch the games!"  Most sabers don't use spreadsheets because they are too rudimentary.  Yeah, I know none of that is funny, but I think it is.  

Definition

Quote

 

ZiPS is a system of player projections developed by FanGraph's Dan Szymborski when he was at Baseball Think Factory. According a Q&A on the Baseball Think Factory website, ZiPS uses growth and decline curves based on player type to find trends. It then factors those trends into the past performance of those players to come up with projections.

The system uses statistics from the previous four years for players from ages 24-38, and it weights more recent seasons heavier. For younger or older players, it uses weighted statistics from only the previous three years. The system also factors velocities, injury data and play-by-play data into its equations.

Like other projection systems, ZiPS uses past performance and aging trends to develop a future projection for players. On FanGraphs, the projections are updated daily and predict each player's numbers over the course of the remainder of the season.

Obviously, no one is claiming that every ZiPS prediction will come true, but it is widely regarded as one of the most accurate predictors in the industry.

 

 

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On 12/21/2019 at 10:11 AM, tiger337 said:

One funny thing about Szymborski is that he still uses spreadsheets to do this which must be a huge pain.  It's funny because trads always used to tell sabers to "put down your spreadsheets and watch the games!"  Most sabers don't use spreadsheets because they are too rudimentary.  Yeah, I know none of that is funny, but I think it is.  

Definition

 

You're right, although I'd bet he has some automated situation that crunches raw performance data from the past three or so seasons, weights them, applies some season-specific aging and ballpark factors, and spits out the results into another table. So perhaps at worst, all he has to do is copy and dump raw Lahman data into a few tabs of the sheet. It may be less elegant then a thoroughly modern solution developed in the last few months, but probably just as effective as it was in 2003 or will be in 2035.

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On 12/23/2019 at 9:06 AM, chasfh said:

You're right, although I'd bet he has some automated situation that crunches raw performance data from the past three or so seasons, weights them, applies some season-specific aging and ballpark factors, and spits out the results into another table. So perhaps at worst, all he has to do is copy and dump raw Lahman data into a few tabs of the sheet. It may be less elegant then a thoroughly modern solution developed in the last few months, but probably just as effective as it was in 2003 or will be in 2035.

The last I heard on Twitter was he did everything in excel and others were urging him to use a coding language.  That was a year or two ago, so he might have a new system now.  The excel system would give the same results, but it's a lot more work and there is a greater chance of making an error.  

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24 minutes ago, Chili Mac Davis said:

Why do we not mention anywhere here that our starting RF Reyes was a Rule V guy? That was a good move.

He won’t last.  Can’t take a a walk and is a liability in the outfield.

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24 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

He won’t last.  Can’t take a a walk and is a liability in the outfield.

His whole game is batting average which was fueled by a high BABIP.  He has no power, doesn't walk, not a strong defender.  He is still young enough to improve, but I am not optimistic.  

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IDK that anyone has overly high hopes for Reyes, but in the scheme of the Tiger OF, between Reyes and Stewart where a real world decision may eventually be made you have 2 guys with pretty close to the same number of ML PA and Reyes is both younger and has actually produced something and Stewart has not. So when the question has to be answered regarding who gets DFA'd so someone else gets a longer look.....

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