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Detroit Tigers Rule 5 Draft

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7 minutes ago, Keepleyland2 said:

Which is kind of my point.

Why take a guy with virtually no chance over a guy with a better chance?

One reason is that premium players are rare, and it is those players who separate you competitively from the pack. Mediocre players are easy to acquire, so shoot for the moon. Also, the differential in odds may not be as extreme as you assume.

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28 minutes ago, Longgone said:

One reason is that premium players are rare, and it is those players who separate you competitively from the pack. Mediocre players are easy to acquire, so shoot for the moon. Also, the differential in odds may not be as extreme as you assume.

I understand the theory.

But were talking about an actual player here a guy that was useless at A ball. We could shoot for thr moon by drafting me...it ain't going to work out. 

It seems silly just to say shoot for the moon on a guy unlikely to do anything over guys who might contribute to a major league team. You need those players too.

It be different if Twins guy had some production at A ball or Aa. He has not. It be like drafting Derrick hill two years ago and hoping for the best.

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17 minutes ago, Keepleyland2 said:

I understand the theory.

But were talking about an actual player here a guy that was useless at A ball. We could shoot for thr moon by drafting me...it ain't going to work out. 

It seems silly just to say shoot for the moon on a guy unlikely to do anything over guys who might contribute to a major league team. You need those players too.

It be different if Twins guy had some production at A ball or Aa. He has not. It be like drafting Derrick hill two years ago and hoping for the best.

Yes, it's all about projection. Stats don't mean much when a lot of development is ahead of you.

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Just now, Longgone said:

Yes, it's all about projection. Stats don't mean much when a lot of development is ahead of you.

Again at some point production needs to meet projection.

You can keep projecting a guy but if his ops never gets above .600 hes not very good.

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If he had better numbers he wouldn't have been exposed so the point is moot.

That is what you get in Rule 5.

Guys that project that also haven't met expectations for whatever reason or guys that don't project even if they have reasonably met expectations.

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5 hours ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

If he had better numbers he wouldn't have been exposed so the point is moot.

That is what you get in Rule 5.

Guys that project that also haven't met expectations for whatever reason or guys that don't project even if they have reasonably met expectations.

 

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23 hours ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

If he had better numbers he wouldn't have been exposed so the point is moot.

That is what you get in Rule 5.

Guys that project that also haven't met expectations for whatever reason or guys that don't project even if they have reasonably met expectations.

Of course if he was batting .900 he'd be protected. 

But, look at the others guys non protected. They have way better numbers at A and AA. As I said someone can have all the projectability in the world, but if they can't hit when it counts what does it matter?

And along those lines, if projectability is all that matter we aren't going to read here again about Daz BA or Isaac's power or Fulmers k/9 right? 

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10 minutes ago, Keepleyland2 said:

Of course if he was batting .900 he'd be protected. 

But, look at the others guys non protected. They have way better numbers at A and AA. As I said someone can have all the projectability in the world, but if they can't hit when it counts what does it matter?

And along those lines, if projectability is all that matter we aren't going to read here again about Daz BA or Isaac's power or Fulmers k/9 right? 

 

Projectability isn't ALL that matters. However with a 20 yo in a ball who has been set back by injuries, it probably means a great deal. Sometimes there is a reason for the numbers, and if you believe the talent can transcend those numbers you take your chances.

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48 minutes ago, Keepleyland2 said:

Of course if he was batting .900 he'd be protected. 

But, look at the others guys non protected. They have way better numbers at A and AA. As I said someone can have all the projectability in the world, but if they can't hit when it counts what does it matter?

And along those lines, if projectability is all that matter we aren't going to read here again about Daz BA or Isaac's power or Fulmers k/9 right? 

A Wander Javier, for example, has the talent in a couple of years to be a top 100 prospect. You could gamble on that, or take one of the more developed guys who could help this year, but whose ceiling is a fourth outfielder, dh or utility infielder, your choice.

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