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IdahoBert

2019-2020 OFFSEASON DISCUSSION THREAD

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3 hours ago, TigerNation said:

What first round prospect isn't scouted throughout school and at showcases?

And which team at the top of the draft doesn't draft an elite prospect?

Are you aware there is 40 rounds in each draft?  Most are not elite.

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On 9/27/2019 at 8:22 PM, LooseGoose said:

Yeah, it's easy to draft Mize let's see him find value in a later round like the 9th.

Yes....I would like to see some benchmarks for drafting/developing players outside of the top half of the 1st round.  They seem to be garnering less than 1 serviceable player per year from all such picks, and maybe one every two years has been a multi-year plus starter.

They must do better....but who can really build a winner from within on a sustainable basis?  Putting aside the Cards and the A's, teams that want to stay in the playoffs consistently have to pay the FA freight.  Once the Tram/Lou/Morris/Parrish/Gibson crowd cycled out, we faced 25 Ilitch years of mostly extreme bust and 10 years of success.  This is a bad model IMO. 

Bottom line, if the Ilitches want the Tigers to be profit-first, and apparently they do, they need to garner the top-flight FO leadership and such to make it work.  If they could find the once-in-a-generation FO talent to make that work, I'd be thrilled, but that seems like a very slim chance to me.

The odds are more favorable to hire a "very good GM" who drafts/develops well, but who needs substantially more $$ than they are putting on the table now to make it work on the field.

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29 minutes ago, sabretooth said:

Yes....I would like to see some benchmarks for drafting/developing players outside of the top half of the 1st round.  They seem to be garnering less than 1 serviceable player per year from all such picks, and maybe one every two years has been a multi-year plus starter.

They must do better....but who can really build a winner from within on a sustainable basis? 

I'd say you probably need to pull 3 players every two years from your own system to have enough of your own players that your free agent requirement can remain economically sustainable. Which pretty much means if you don't miss on your first rounders you have 78 other chances plus the international draft to come up with one more major leaguer. Doesn't sound like it should be that hard but not many teams manage it!

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The best teams do though. Every playoff team has several home grown above average major leaguers. But I agree, there are many teams that do not, including Detroit - since the mid 70s to early 80s.

Who on the current team or Toledo has even a remote chance to be above average? Boyd. Maybe JaCoby? And who has a chance to be average? W Castro, Norris, Turnbull, Rogers? I'm confident a couple of the Erie boys will be above average and maybe a couple average. Greene and the international kids are a few to several years away. Meadows has raw skills. It's magnified in my mind because the Pistons are stuck in the middle and the Wings are rebuilding and the Lions find a way to lose in perpetuity. 

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8 hours ago, cruzer1 said:

Are you aware there is 40 rounds in each draft?  Most are not elite.

So what first round prospect isn't scouted throughout school and at showcases?

And which team at the top of the draft doesn't draft an elite prospect?

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11 hours ago, Gehringer_2 said:

I'd say you probably need to pull 3 players every two years from your own system to have enough of your own players that your free agent requirement can remain economically sustainable. Which pretty much means if you don't miss on your first rounders you have 78 other chances plus the international draft to come up with one more major leaguer. Doesn't sound like it should be that hard but not many teams manage it!

Economically sustainable is a moving target for a league that has some teams spending double and triple what other teams are spending.  

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Looks like we’ll be shopping in the scrap heap for a middle of the order bat.  Not a lot to choose from this year.  Of course, there is a guy with the Cubs...nah.

 

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Not a lot to choose from this FA class.  Rendon is obviously the best bat and I would be all for signing him if I believed that we could make the corresponding moves to compete by 2021 but as is it would be risky since he's already 29.  If we don't contend till 2022 or 23 then he very well may be a different player by that point.  

 

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2020: 65-97, 3rd worst record

Niko leads team with 17 home runs

My cat stops peeing on my floor

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2 hours ago, leflore said:

2020: 65-97, 3rd worst record

Niko leads team with 17 home runs

My cat stops peeing on my floor

Love your wild-eyed optimism.  Without substantial upgrades, I don’t see that improvement.  

Also, don't see your cats bladder issues improving.

  • Haha 1

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1 hour ago, Tenacious D said:

Joe Madden just declared a free agent.

No way he comes here, unfortunately.

Joe's going to the Mets, Phillies or Sox (either Red or White).  

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4 minutes ago, Motor City Sonics said:

Joe's going to the Mets, Phillies or Sox (either Red or White).  

I doubt Alex Cora gets fired in Boston.

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3 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

I doubt Alex Cora gets fired in Boston.

I do too, but Maddon is kind of a superstar...........and they did fire Dave Dombrowski, so they are willing

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It does not portend a change in away from the contact and situational-hitting philosophy the Tigers have emphasized under Gardenhire, an approach they believe plays to their advantage at spacious Comerica Park.

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45 minutes ago, IdahoBert said:

https://www.mlb.com/news/tigers-to-spend-on-analytics-again

So they’re not going to spend money on players and they’re going to go heavy on analytics to exploit inefficiencies which other teams that have been into analytics longer have somehow not discovered?

YES I’M SHOUTING. 

lol....it seems most here would be happy to see this:

Quote

 

CHICAGO – The Tigers' player payroll is expected to stay much the same going into next season, enough to make some signings on a budget but not a major splash. Their major investment continues to be in analytics.

What was a one-man analytics department when Al Avila took over as general manager was up to 14 members this year. It’ll grow beyond that this winter as the Tigers look to add analytics brain power to their farm system.

 

Especially those that would advocate firing Avila to rehire Dombrowski - obviously this additional analytic spending has all been a waste.

And you do realize that even with payroll staying the same as the story says that they have around $35M to spend on players?

 

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1 minute ago, LooseGoose said:

lol....it seems most here would be happy to see this:

Especially those that would advocate firing Avila to rehire Dombrowski - obviously this additional analytic spending has all been a waste.

And you do realize that even with payroll staying the same as the story says that they have around $35M to spend on players?

 

Don’t try cheering me up. 

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I think more analytics with this team may simply mean “doing it on the cheap.“  I hope I’m wrong.

If they spend that $35 million the same way they did last year it won’t make much difference.  

They don’t intend to change the hitting philosophy. And there’s a good chance the coaching staff will remain the same or in the same vein.  

It will be hard to duplicate the thus concluded season’s miserable record, but we don’t have much to look forward to.  

End of pity party rant. 

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1 hour ago, IdahoBert said:

https://www.mlb.com/news/tigers-to-spend-on-analytics-again

So they’re not going to spend money on players and they’re going to go heavy on analytics to exploit inefficiencies which other teams that have been into analytics longer have somehow not discovered?

YES I’M SHOUTING. 

I think instrumenting the batting practice cage is a long overdue idea. What they really need to do is pay some clever mechanical engineers to design a pitching machine that throws tunable breaking balls so hitters can get infinite reps against the equivalent of live pitching. I predict that will be the next great breakthrough in the game.

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The comedy in this fiasco is that a team that is still learning how to pronounce the word ‘analytics’ is now going to exploit the weaknesses of the likes of Oakland, Tampa Bay and others that wrote the book on the topic. It ain’t going to happen.

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"We’re even talking about doing something in Detroit where we can take batting practice and actually get data from it and show these guys what their hands are going, what their hips are doing, the whole package.”

Houston has been doing that for a few years. The Tigers are still so far behind.

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