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2019-2020 OFFSEASON DISCUSSION THREAD

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35 minutes ago, thefunk said:

It is thoroughly depressing to be a Tiger fan, this may be the darkest moment. Not saying it can’t get darker yet, because it sure can. But this is as low as it’s been thus far.

More than 100 losses. The GD freaking Twins have won the division and celebrated in the visiting clubhouse. 

No immediate help in sight, question marks on the roster, coaching staff, in the GM office and Ownership.

woof. 

Not just 100 losses, but the second most losses in franchise history. 

Even if the Tigers win their remaining 5 games, the 2019 Tigers will have the second worse winning percentage in franchise history.  In 119 years.  

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My guess on Avila's off field plan:

-Overhaul the disastrous player development staff. Specifically, change more coaches in the minors and try to change the narrative on why our hitters all have the same problem.

-He'll ask Gardy to make changes on the major league staff and Gardy will walk.

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6 minutes ago, kdog said:

My guess on Avila's off field plan:

-Overhaul the disastrous player development staff. Specifically, change more coaches in the minors and try to change the narrative on why our hitters all have the same problem.

-He'll ask Gardy to make changes on the major league staff and Gardy will walk.

I think the off field plan is more like, "you're all doing great!  Here, have a five year extension."  Ilitch is impressed with the progress being made.  

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19 minutes ago, kdog said:

My guess on Avila's off field plan:

-Overhaul the disastrous player development staff. Specifically, change more coaches in the minors and try to change the narrative on why our hitters all have the same problem.

-He'll ask Gardy to make changes on the major league staff and Gardy will walk.

there does seem something to this. How often do you hear a manager take the line that Gardy did the other day about only coming back if his coaches were protected?  But he's replaceable.

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1 hour ago, chasfh said:

Who's looking for a job?

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/instagraphs/job-posting-tigers-baseball-operations-analyst/

The ideal candidate is a "self-starter" and a "team player" who can "work evenings, weekends and holidays as dictated by the baseball calendar".

Come on, Biggs, step up, we need you now more than ever.

My kids are entering college.  I need to make bank.

My older son would be a better / more qualified candidate anyway.

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54 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

there does seem something to this. How often do you hear a manager take the line that Gardy did the other day about only coming back if his coaches were protected?  But he's replaceable.

That was kind of interesting to hear, wasn't it?

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I think now is the time to start looking for your manager of the future.  While we certainly aren't going to compete next year or probably the following one we should start seeing more and more of our prospects coming up and I'd rather them get coached and acclimated with guys that could possibly be here long term not a lame duck manager and/or coaches.   

 

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6 hours ago, Gehringer_2 said:

there does seem something to this. How often do you hear a manager take the line that Gardy did the other day about only coming back if his coaches were protected?  But he's replaceable.

Gardenhire probably doesn’t think that either he or the coaching staff at the MLB level is the issue and that it’s a problem of raw talent as well as inadequate player development at the minor-league level.

He may also not want to stick around for another round of suicidal WW I style trench warfare. Going over the top into a wall of bullets day in day out may have finally worn him down.  

It’s possible that the Minnesota Twins really do “play the game the right way“ as an overall organization and he knows the difference between an organization that does and doesn’t do this. 

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Quote

Buscon Bob: Position players who can draw walks and hit for power are seemingly the must-have for all baseball teams, why does it seem as if Avila is allergic to this in Detroit?
Keith Law: I think the Tigers are targeting different players than the rest of the industry across the board, and I don’t exactly know why. It does seem like, in the draft at least, they tend to take guys who are more famous – and more toolsy – than guys who pass the sort of contemporary filters teams use, which includes Trackman or similar data.

From Law's chat today.  

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Can we just please release JZ?    Just give him his money.   I can't take anymore.   I know it's slim pickens for next year's rotation, but I can't stand seeing a guy get paid to be that bad.  Worst Tiger Free Agent Signing EVER. 

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1 hour ago, RandyMarsh said:

From Law's chat today.  

The Tigers are 10% (by OPS+) worse and have scored 3/4 of a run fewer per game than the next worst offense in the AL. What more proof do they need that something isn't working? 

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Everyone should be fired.    

Front Office

Scouting Staff

Analytics

Coaches

Developmental Staff

 

I see no real positional talent coming here anytime soon.  I see a lot of Dawel Lugo type players.   How can you miss this often for this long.  Yeah, Victor Reyes and Harold Castro had nice seasons, but come on - these are marginal major leaguers at best.    

The pitching is still a couple years away and looks really good right now, but I am actually afraid to leave it in the hands of this group.   

2003 was not on Dombrowski, he was still trying to clean up Randy Smith's mess.   Al Avila's time as GM may have only started in 2015 but he's been here well over a decade and he does need to answer for the lack of positional talent in that time.   It also gives me no confidence to see how well guys are doing after they leave here - how other teams seem to find something.     Congrats on finding J.D. Martinez and taking advantage of Houston's mistake.   Frankly, I can't see much else to be thrilled with here.   

 

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8 hours ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

My kids are entering college.  I need to make bank.

My older son would be a better / more qualified candidate anyway.

Fast paced jobs for **** pay where the main benefit is an ego boost are best suited for youth.

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3 minutes ago, Motor City Sonics said:

Everyone should be fired.    

Front Office

Scouting Staff

Analytics

Coaches

Developmental Staff

 

I see no real positional talent coming here anytime soon.  I see a lot of Dawel Lugo type players.   How can you miss this often for this long.  Yeah, Victor Reyes and Harold Castro had nice seasons, but come on - these are marginal major leaguers at best.    

The pitching is still a couple years away and looks really good right now, but I am actually afraid to leave it in the hands of this group.   

2003 was not on Dombrowski, he was still trying to clean up Randy Smith's mess.   Al Avila's time as GM may have only started in 2015 but he's been here well over a decade and he does need to answer for the lack of positional talent in that time.   It also gives me no confidence to see how well guys are doing after they leave here - how other teams seem to find something.     Congrats on finding J.D. Martinez and taking advantage of Houston's mistake.   Frankly, I can't see much else to be thrilled with here.   

 

I disagree with this, for one I really can't think of many guys that developed after leaving here aside from Suarez and maybe Ray.  I'm not counting guys like Verlander or JD cause they were great here as well.  

Also if this were to happen I would atleast feel better about the team being able to identify talent, then we would atleast know that it is more in the developing part where they struggle.  But the fact that there haven't been much successes with guys that left here makes it tough to distinguish whether it's the fact they can't identify, develop it or both.    

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1 hour ago, RandyMarsh said:

From Law's chat today.  

They actually have a lot recent draftees/acquisitions with decent walk rates in the minors, but none of them other than Paredes  look like sure things to be playing in Det anytime soon. Castro had a decent walk rate at Toledo, that may or may not eventually show up again at the majors. I would not say they are not looking for guys who can walk. The power shortage is quite a different problem. I wonder if the org  is feeling a little burned by the number of power hitters they chased that could never get out of AAA (from Hessman all the way to Moya) because they had no bat skill and have tended to go overboard the other way.

Conn

Quiggle: 23 BB/53 games

Kreidler: 20 BB/60 games

WM

Meadows: 47 BB/126 games

W Perez: 47 BB/ 124 games

Lipcius: 27 BB/63 games

Greene: 22 BB/ 57 games

Lakeland

Clemens: 45 BB/115 games

Erie

Paredes: 57 BB /127 games

Alcantara: 48 BB/102 games

Gibson: 46 BB/ 117 games

Hill: 38 BB/ 120 games

Toledo:

Cameron: 62 BB/ 120 games

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41 minutes ago, Motor City Sonics said:

Can we just please release JZ?    Just give him his money.   I can't take anymore.   I know it's slim pickens for next year's rotation, but I can't stand seeing a guy get paid to be that bad.  Worst Tiger Free Agent Signing EVER. 

He's serving a purpose.

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22 minutes ago, Motor City Sonics said:

Everyone should be fired.    

Front Office

Scouting Staff

Analytics

Coaches

Developmental Staff

 

I see no real positional talent coming here anytime soon.  I see a lot of Dawel Lugo type players.   How can you miss this often for this long.  Yeah, Victor Reyes and Harold Castro had nice seasons, but come on - these are marginal major leaguers at best.    

The pitching is still a couple years away and looks really good right now, but I am actually afraid to leave it in the hands of this group.   

2003 was not on Dombrowski, he was still trying to clean up Randy Smith's mess.   Al Avila's time as GM may have only started in 2015 but he's been here well over a decade and he does need to answer for the lack of positional talent in that time.   It also gives me no confidence to see how well guys are doing after they leave here - how other teams seem to find something.     Congrats on finding J.D. Martinez and taking advantage of Houston's mistake.   Frankly, I can't see much else to be thrilled with here.   

 

I'm as certain as I can be that Al Avila has been the architect of amateur talent acquisition for the entirety of his tenure here based on two things: (1) his background and pedigree are scouting director; and (2) everyone accepts that Dave Dombrowski had almost no interest in that part of the house. So who else is going to run it? Dave Littlefield? David Chadd? Scott Bream? Why push that responsibility down the chain when your #2 guy has such a scouting reputation that he was actually inducted into the Professional Baseball Scouts Hall of Fame? At least that's the brag on Avila's bio on the Tigers website.

I put the entire blame for the state of our system that's developed over the past fifteen years on Avila's shoulders. Even the fact that it's risen to the top half of system rankings mainly on the strength of its first rounders, but without much depth, is a failure of execution, especially since he had to liquidate multiple All-Stars and future Hall of Famers to help get it even to where it is now.

 

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20 minutes ago, chasfh said:

I'm as certain as I can be that Al Avila has been the architect of amateur talent acquisition for the entirety of his tenure here based on two things: (1) his background and pedigree are scouting director; and (2) everyone accepts that Dave Dombrowski had almost no interest in that part of the house. So who else is going to run it? Dave Littlefield? David Chadd? Scott Bream? Why push that responsibility down the chain when your #2 guy has such a scouting reputation that he was actually inducted into the Professional Baseball Scouts Hall of Fame? At least that's the brag on Avila's bio on the Tigers website.

I put the entire blame for the state of our system that's developed over the past fifteen years on Avila's shoulders. Even the fact that it's risen to the top half of system rankings mainly on the strength of its first rounders, but without much depth, is a failure of execution, especially since he had to liquidate multiple All-Stars and future Hall of Famers to help get it even to where it is now.

 

I will only make one point in Avila's defense, which is that it was still Dombrowski and Ilitch that controlled the resources that went to Avila's domain. There seemed to be a consensus that every scouting director in the majors probably had more and better data to work with than Avila did right up to the minute DD left for Boston. It was pretty unmistakable how his first priority when he took over was getting better data, both player measurements and statistics.

How much if any better Is he doing now that  it's his show is still the question though.

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13 minutes ago, chasfh said:

I'm as certain as I can be that Al Avila has been the architect of amateur talent acquisition for the entirety of his tenure here based on two things: (1) his background and pedigree are scouting director; and (2) everyone accepts that Dave Dombrowski had almost no interest in that part of the house. So who else is going to run it? Dave Littlefield? David Chadd? Scott Bream? Why push that responsibility down the chain when your #2 guy has such a scouting reputation that he was actually inducted into the Professional Baseball Scouts Hall of Fame? At least that's the brag on Avila's bio on the Tigers website.

I put the entire blame for the state of our system that's developed over the past fifteen years on Avila's shoulders. Even the fact that it's risen to the top half of system rankings mainly on the strength of its first rounders, but without much depth, is a failure of execution, especially since he had to liquidate multiple All-Stars and future Hall of Famers to help get it even to where it is now.

 

This makes good sense. What is the relationship between poor scouting and poor player development?  Is one of these a greater factor than the other?  I know they’re interrelated. But they are two separate wings of the operation with different personnel.  

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1 minute ago, Charles Liston said:

I'm not worried about who the next manager is.  It's extremely overrated.

That 5 win difference could have cost us the 1st pick this year.....

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2 minutes ago, Charles Liston said:

I'm not worried about who the next manager is.  It's extremely overrated.

I don’t want him to be a pretty boy. I want the manager to be an ugly old man that frightens me. Just on a visceral level, Leyland and Gardenhire seem like people you need to obey. Ausmus seemed like a fraternity brother you can ignore.   

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On 9/25/2019 at 8:18 AM, LooseGoose said:

If we only had a 2020 "best shape of his career" thread....

Miguel Cabrera’s winter plans: Fix knee, say adios to arepas

 

 

Color me unimpressed. Why is he waiting for the off-season? He could have gotten himself a cook and started working on his body the day he decided he needed to do it. I just can't take the man seriously at this point. Any diet change you are not starting on until 'tomorrow' is one that has already failed.

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21 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

I will only make one point in Avila's defense, which is that it was still Dombrowski and Ilitch that controlled the resources that went to Avila's domain. Every scouting director in the majors probably had more and better data to work with than Avila did right up to the minute DD left for Boston. It was pretty unmistakable how his first priority when he took over was getting better data, both player measurements and statistics.

How much if any better Is he doing better now that  it's his show is still the question though.

I very seriously doubt that Avila was a closet cutting edge analytically-inclined talent evaluator who was thwarted in his attempt to get resources. He has a type he likes: big, toolsy guys (and famous, too, I guess we know now) who are athletes now and we can teach them the baseball stuff later. How many years did we waste our hopes and dreams on guys like this, and for nothing? Jacob Turner? Ryan Perry? Andy Oliver? Casey Crosby? Bruce Rondon? Derek Hill? Steven Moya? Joe Jiminez? All big guys with big tools, none of them worth a darn on the diamond. 

I respect the idea behind what you say here, but I can't believe that Avila couldn't properly evaluate talent because he didn't have a guy on staff who knew how to do R. He's wedded to a certain type of talent evaluation, and we are reaping what he sows.

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