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2019-2020 OFFSEASON DISCUSSION THREAD

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28 minutes ago, Oblong said:

For all the "how did this team not win the WS" talk about that era I always go back to the fact that they never had home field advantage in the playoffs except for the '06 WS because of the ASG that year....

Yes they were good but at any single point in time they were never considered the best team and played against teams with better records. Just because you won the division in 2011 doesn't give you any advantage in 2013 or 2014.  The 2014 team was a lot different thant he 2012 team as well.

Those teams had shaky bullpens and too many holes in the lineup....  it wasn't like the starters were all Cy Young contenders either.

We're overrating them.

The only pitcher in that starting rotation to not win a Cy Young was Anibal Sanchez.  And he finished 4th in voting just one year earlier. 

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36 minutes ago, Oblong said:

For all the "how did this team not win the WS" talk about that era I always go back to the fact that they never had home field advantage in the playoffs except for the '06 WS because of the ASG that year....

Yes they were good but at any single point in time they were never considered the best team and played against teams with better records. Just because you won the division in 2011 doesn't give you any advantage in 2013 or 2014.  The 2014 team was a lot different thant he 2012 team as well.

Those teams had shaky bullpens and too many holes in the lineup....  it wasn't like the starters were all Cy Young contenders either.

We're overrating them.

The last time they had the best record in baseball was 1987.  

They have had the best record four times: 1987 1984 1968 1934

A bunch of us had this argument over on twitter.  I do think we overrate the 2011-2014 team.  They had some great talent, but I don't think they ever had a truly dominant team in any one season.  

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3 minutes ago, tiger337 said:

A bunch of us had this argument over on twitter.  I do think we overrate the 2011-2014 team.  They had some great talent, but I don't think they ever had a truly dominant team in any one season.  

I think those were very good, mostly complete teams.  DD's achilles heel was always avoiding getting a lockdown closer, but instead relying on pitchers who were past their glory years.  The 2006 team is the interesting one--pretty amazing that they were able to get to the World Series with a starting staff that included Kenny Rogers, Jeremy Bonderman and Nate Robertson.  Everything clicked that season.

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2006 was so strange.  They went on a tear to open the season which surprised everyone, including us.  Then for the last third of the season lost 2/3 of their games only to cruise through the playoffs but die during the World Series.  They were sort of all or nothing and the nothing occurred at the worst possible moment against St. Louis.

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4 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

I think those were very good, mostly complete teams.  DD's achilles heel was always avoiding getting a lockdown closer, but instead relying on pitchers who were past their glory years.  The 2006 team is the interesting one--pretty amazing that they were able to get to the World Series with a starting staff that included Kenny Rogers, Jeremy Bonderman and Nate Robertson.  Everything clicked that season.

The 2006 team was one of my favorite teams ever because of what happened the previous two decades.  It was so much fun watching them break through.   

The 2011-2014 teams were very good teams.  I just feel as if there was never one single season during that period that is etched in my memory.    

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5 minutes ago, pyrotigers said:

Actually the 2007 Tigers were the best 

I loved that team too - Ordonez's great season, Granderson's quad 20, 887 runs scored as a team!

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45 minutes ago, tiger337 said:

The last time they had the best record in baseball was 1987.  

They have had the best record four times: 1987 1984 1968 1934

A bunch of us had this argument over on twitter.  I do think we overrate the 2011-2014 team.  They had some great talent, but I don't think they ever had a truly dominant team in any one season.  

I think it's because they had such great talent on the team that everyone overrates them. The drag on those teams is that they had a lot of flotsam on those rosters as well. Even the pennant winning 2012 team gave a third of their at bats to such "hitters" as Delmon Young, Brennan Boesch, Ramon Santiago, and Ryan Raburn. 

This ownership and front office could always throw money at stars and even pick the occasional can't-miss draftee, but they could never build a roster or system for depth, and surprise surprise, they're headed down that same path again. 

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10 minutes ago, chasfh said:

I think it's because they had such great talent on the team that everyone overrates them. The drag on those teams is that they had a lot of flotsam on those rosters as well. Even the pennant winning 2012 team gave a third of their at bats to such "hitters" as Delmon Young, Brennan Boesch, Ramon Santiago, and Ryan Raburn. 

This ownership and front office could always throw money at stars and even pick the occasional can't-miss draftee, but they could never build a roster or system for depth, and surprise surprise, they're headed down that same path again. 

minus the stars

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As this past regular season was winding down I was of the belief that things couldn’t possibly be as bad next year as they were this year. I now think it’s completely possible this coming season could be just as bad.

Ownership shows every intent of doing nothing at all to improve the team in either the short term or the long term (aside from waiting for the future pitching staff to arrive).

Sure, in this just concluded season they had a bizarre number of injuries and a lot of underperforming from players they expected to be better. But they also had an anomalous and surprisingly good start to the season that probably won’t happen again in 2020, so even minus bizarre injuries etc. I expect the record at the end of 2020 to be pretty much the same as 2019. 

There’s nothing to look forward to and ownership has said as much. 

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Next season will be as bad.  The record might be marginally better because the players they pick up to flip end up doing better, but it will be a very similar feel.

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If we don’t see at least one piece of the future make his way to Detroit at all, it will be a lost year. 

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No Castellanos, Jiminez as the closer, JaCoby leading the team with 16 home runs (actually, I think Miggy may top 20), yeah, it will suck next year. Maybe Norris has a healthy, break-out year with an era under 4. Maybe Boyd improves a bit more. Maybe Reyes and Niko trend upward inching close to an average major leaguer. Even those maybes are bottom dwelling hopes. Toledo should be improved which will fuel a smidgeon of hope for me.

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I think some of these guys will improve on the margins as well.

But I don't think there isn't much of a difference between 110 or 100 losses.

Basically they have to be to 90 losses or fewer for me to think there is progress being made, which I know is completely arbitrary.

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Respectability could happen fast via free agency, without inhibiting the few prospects we have in the minors. For any incremental $30-40M spend in 2018, we can get better at multiple positions.  Suggestions in bold.  Most could be had for 1 or 2 year reasonable deals.  Might be worth looking more aggressively at Didi Gregorius and Marcell Ozuna on multi-year deals, as they could be part of the core of the next team and wouldn't block anyone:

Catchers

Yasmani Grandal (31 years old, 5.2 WAR) -- $16 million mutual option for 2020 ($2.25 million buyout)
Robinson Chirinos (36, 2.3)
Tyler Flowers (34, 2.1) -- $6 million club option for 2020 ($2 million buyout)
Jason Castro (33, 1.6)
Travis d’Arnaud (31, 1.6)
Alex Avila (33, 1.3)
Russell Martin (37, 1.2)
Austin Romine (31, 0.9)
Stephen Vogt (35, 0.9)
Martín Maldonado (33, 0.8)
Yan Gomes (32, 0.8) -- $9 million club option for 2020 ($1 million buyout)
Francisco Cervelli (34, 0.1)
René Rivera (36, 0.0)
Nick Hundley (36, -0.3)
Matt Wieters (34, -0.3)
Bryan Holaday (32, -0.3)
Drew Butera (36, -0.5)
Jonathan Lucroy (34, -0.5)
Chris Iannetta (37, -0.5)
Welington Castillo (33, -1.0) -- $8 million club option for 2020 ($500,000 buyout)

First Basemen

Anthony Rizzo (30 years old, 4.0 WAR) -- $14.5 million club option for 2020 ($2 million buyout)
Howie Kendrick (36, 2.9)
Jose Abreu (33, 1.9)
Eric Thames (33, 1.9) -- $7.5 million club option for 2020 ($1 million buyout)
Mitch Moreland (34, 0.7)
Neil Walker (34, 0.4)
Justin Smoak (33, 0.2)
Logan Forsythe (33, 0.2)
Ryan Zimmerman (35, 0.1) -- $18 million club option for 2020 ($2 million buyout)
Matt Adams (31, -0.1) -- $4 million mutual option for 2020 ($1 million buyout)
Logan Morrison (32, -0.1)
Ryon Healy (28, -0.1)
Justin Bour (32, -0.4)
Mark Reynolds (36, -0.8)
Steve Pearce (37, -0.9)
Lucas Duda (34, -1.0)
Yonder Alonso (33, -1.2)

Second Basemen

Eric Sogard (34 years old, 2.6 WAR)
Brian Dozier (33, 1.7)
Jonathan Schoop (28, 1.3)
Starlin Castro (30, 1.3) -- $16 million club option for 2020 ($1 million buyout)
Brock Holt (32, 1.3)
Brad Miller (30, 1.2)
Jason Kipnis (33, 1.1)
Wilmer Flores (28, 1.1)
Ben Zobrist (39, 0.2)
Gordon Beckham (33, -0.1)
Hernán Pérez (29, -0.2)
Yangervis Solarte (32, -0.3)
Scooter Gennett (30, -0.5)
Josh Harrison (32, -0.6)
Chris Owings (28, -0.8)
Eduardo Nuñez (33, -1.0)

Third Basemen

Anthony Rendon (30 years old, 7.0 WAR)
Josh Donaldson (34, 4.9)
Mike Moustakas (31, 2.8) -- $11 million mutual option for 2020 ($3 million buyout)
Asdrúbal Cabrera (34, 1.9)
Todd Frazier (34, 1.9)
Pablo Sandoval (33, 1.0)
Sean Rodríguez (35, 0.4)
Kaleb Cowart (28, -0.2)
Ryan Flaherty (33, -0.2)
Jedd Gyorko (31, -0.7) -- $13 million club option for 2020 ($1 million buyout)
Jung Ho Kang (33, -0.9)
Martín Prado (36, -1.2)

Shortstops

José Iglesias (30 years old, 1.6 WAR)
Elvis Andrus (31, 1.4) -- can opt out of 3 years, $43 million remaining on contract
Didi Gregorius (30, 0.9)
Adeiny Hechavarría (31, 0.7)
Jordy Mercer (33, 0.6)

Left fielders

Brett Gardner (36 years old, 3.6 WAR)
Marcell Ozuna (29, 2.6)
Alex Gordon (36, 1.3)
Corey Dickerson (31, 1.0)
Rajai Davis (39, 0.0)
Gerardo Parra (33, -0.2)
Peter Bourjos (33, -0.5)
Carlos González (34, -0.6)
Matt Kemp (35, -0.8)
Curtis Granderson (39, -1.4)

Center fielders

Starling Marte (31 years old, 3.0 WAR) -- $11.5 million club option for 2020 ($2 million buyout)
Jarrod Dyson (35, 1.3)
Billy Hamilton (29, 0.4) -- $7.5 million mutual option for 2020 ($1 million buyout)
Carlos Gómez (34, -0.1)
Leonys Martin (32, -0.6)
Keon Broxton (30, -0.8)
Juan Lagares (31, -0.8) -- $9.5 million club option for 2020 ($500,000 buyout)
Austin Jackson (33, N/A)

Right fielders

Nicholas Castellanos (28 years old, 2.8 WAR)
Kole Calhoun (32, 2.5) -- $14 million club option for 2020 ($1 million buyout)
Adam Eaton (31, 2.3) -- $9.5 million club option for 2020 ($1.5 million buyout)
Jason Heyward (30, 1.9) -- can opt out of 4 years, $86 million remaining on contract
Avisaíl García (29, 1.8)
Cameron Maybin (33, 1.6)
Yasiel Puig (29, 1.2)
Matt Joyce (35, 1.2)
Nick Markakis (36, 0.4) -- $6 million club option for 2020 ($2 million buyout)
Adam Jones (34, -0.1)
Melky Cabrera (35, -0.7)
Jon Jay (35, -0.9)
Lonnie Chisenhall (31, N/A)

Designated hitters

J.D. Martinez (32, 3.2) -- can opt out of 3 years, $62.5 million remaining on contract
Edwin Encarnación (37, 2.5)
Hunter Pence (37, 1.8)
Hanley Ramirez (36, -0.2)
Mark Trumbo (34, -0.3)
Kendrys Morales (37, -0.8)

Starting pitchers

Gerrit Cole (29 years old, 7.4 WAR)
Stephen Strasburg (31, 5.7) -- can opt out of 4 years, $100 million remaining on contract
Hyun-Jin Ryu (33, 4.8)
Zack Wheeler (30, 4.7)
Jake Odorizzi (30, 4.3)
José Quintana (31, 3.3) -- $11.5 million club option for 2020 ($1 million buyout)
Madison Bumgarner (30, 3.2)
Homer Bailey (34, 2.9)
Michael Pineda (30, 2.7)
Yu Darvish (33, 2.6) -- can opt out of 4 years, $81 million remaining on contract
Kyle Gibson (32, 2.5)
Cole Hamels (36, 2.5)
Adam Wainwright (38, 2.2)
Tanner Roark (33, 2.0)
Wade Miley (33, 2.0)
Brett Anderson (32, 2.0)
Iván Nova (33, 2.0)
Martín Pérez (29, 1.9) -- $7.5 million club option for 2020 ($500,000 buyout)
Andrew Cashner (33, 1.8)
Jason Vargas (37, 1.8) -- $8 million club option for 2020 ($2 million buyout)
Rick Porcello (31, 1.8)
Julio Teheran (29, 1.6) -- $12 million club option for 2020 ($1 million buyout)
Gio Gonzalez (34, 1.4)
Jake Arrieta (34, 1.1) -- can opt out of 1 year, $20 million remaining on contract unless Phillies exercise 2-year, $40 million option
Rich Hill (40, 0.9)
Dallas Keuchel (32, 0.8)
Chris Archer (31, 0.7) -- $9 million club option for 2020 ($1.75 million buyout)
Matt Moore (31, 0.5)
Clay Buchholz (35, 0.1)
Tyson Ross (33, 0.0)
Félix Hernández (34, -0.1)
Jhoulys Chacín (32, -0.1)
Jeremy Hellickson (33, -0.1)
Odrisamer Despaigne (33, -0.1)
Michael Wacha (28, -0.2)
Alex Wood (29, -0.2)
Edinson Vólquez (36, -0.2)
Marco Estrada (36, -0.2)
Shelby Miller (29, -0.2)
Clayton Richard (36, -0.2)
Drew Smyly (29, -0.3)
Wade LeBlanc (35, -0.3)
Matt Harvey (31, -0.3)
Héctor Noesi (33, -0.3)
Ervin Santana (37, -0.4)
Ross Detwiler (34, -0.6)
Trevor Cahill (32, -0.8)
Derek Holland (33, -1.0)
Edwin Jackson (36, -1.1)

Relief pitchers

Aroldis Chapman (32 years old, 2.0 WAR) -- can opt out of 2 years, $30 million remaining on contract
Yusmeiro Petit (35, 1.4) -- $5.5 million club option for 2020 ($1 million buyout)
Will Smith (30, 1.2)
Kenley Jansen (32, 1.2) -- can opt out of 2 years, $38 million remaining on contract
Will Harris (35, 1.1)
Sergio Romo (37, 1.0)
Chris Martin (34, 1.0)
Jake Diekman (33, 1.0)
Daniel Hudson (33, 0.9)
Brandon Kintzler (35, 0.9)
Drew Pomeranz (31, 0.7)
Sean Doolittle (33, 0.7) -- $6.5 million club option for 2020 ($500,000 buyout)
Brad Brach (34, 0.7)
Tyler Clippard (35, 0.7)
Yoshihisa Hirano (36, 0.5)
Collin McHugh (33, 0.5)
Juan Nicasio (33, 0.5)
Craig Stammen (36, 0.4)
Fernando Rodney (43, 0.4)
Joe Smith (36, 0.4)
David Hernandez (35, 0.3)
Francisco Liriano (36, 0.3)
Jeremy Jeffress (32, 0.3)
Tony Sipp (36, 0.3)
Cory Gearrin (34, 0.3)
Steve Cishek (34, 0.2)
Tommy Hunter (33, 0.2)
Josh Tomlin (35, 0.2)
Dellin Betances (32, 0.1)
Darren O’Day (37, 0.1)
David Phelps (33, 0.1) -- $5 million club option for 2020
Luke Gregerson (36, 0.1)
Aaron Loup (32, 0.1)
Tommy Milone (33, 0.1)
Chad Bettis (31, 0.1)
Nick Vincent (33, 0.1)
Matt Albers (37, 0.0)
Jerry Blevins (36, 0.0)
Xavier Cedeño (33, 0.0)
Mike Dunn (35, 0.0)
Pedro Strop (35, 0.0)
JC Ramírez (31, 0.0)
Luis Avilán (30, -0.1)
Greg Holland (34, -0.1)
Héctor Santiago (32, -0.1)
Nate Jones (34, -0.1) -- $5.15 million club option for 2020 ($1.25 million buyout)
Tony Barnette (36, -0.1) -- $3 million club option for 2020
Tyler Thornburg (31, -0.1)
Arodys Vizcaíno (29, -0.1)
Dan Otero (35, -0.1)
Shawn Kelley (36, -0.2) -- $2.5 million club option for 2020 ($250,000 buyout)
Héctor Rondón (32, -0.2)
Pat Neshek (39, -0.3) -- $7 million club option for 2020 ($750,000 buyout)
Seunghwan Oh (37, -0.3)
Trevor Rosenthal (30, -0.3)
Tony Watson (35, -0.3) -- $2.5 million player option for 2020 ($500,000 buyout)
Miguel Del Pozo (27, -0.3)
Wily Peralta (31, -0.4)
Zach Duke (37, -0.4)
Jonny Venters (35, -0.4)
Nick Tropeano (29, -0.4)
Jared Hughes (34, -0.5) -- $3 million club option for 2020 ($250,000 buyout)
Luis García (33, -0.6)
Anthony Swarzak (34, -0.7)
Cody Allen (31, -0.7)
Adam Warren (32, -0.8)

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I think the 2013 season was our best team and the one that really got away in my eyes.

That was the year that both Max and Sanchez were both dominant, Fister was great, Verlander wasnt his best but he was still very good and Porcello had his 2nd best season as a Tiger.

Our lineup was also really deep with only 1 starter having below a 100 OPS+ with Miggy, Peralta and Prince being great.

Of course the bullpen was sketchy which was always our fatal flaw but Smyly and Benoit were dominant and Albuquerque was a major strikeout artist so we atleast had that.

On paper the 2014 may look better but I think this year was the one where our guys put it together the most in terms of being great at the same time.  

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TD I'm with ya. I'd like to see some upgrades, even in the midst of a long rebuild. I know Houston lost 100+ 3 years in a row, but they also got extremely fortunate hitting on many hi draft picks. Including not signing Brady Aiken taken 1-1 resulting in the 2nd pick the next year which turned out to be Bregman. If Detroit doesn't have such fortune their rebuild could linger and a losing culture could prevail. Just sign a few decent stop gaps. They aren't even in a position to worry about blocking players because Toledo sucks.

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2 hours ago, Tenacious D said:

Respectability could happen fast via free agency, without inhibiting the few prospects we have in the minors. For any incremental $30-40M spend in 2018, we can get better at multiple positions.  Suggestions in bold.  Most could be had for 1 or 2 year reasonable deals.  Might be worth looking more aggressively at Didi Gregorius and Marcell Ozuna on multi-year deals, as they could be part of the core of the next team and wouldn't block anyone:

IMHO ..both Didi Gregorius and Marcell Ozuna will both be declining by the time the Tigers are truly competitive again.

I do not want the Tigers to sign any FA to a long term contract ..not yet anyway.  I think it is important to see how the youngsters in the farm system develop?  Which ones will progress and which ones will not progress?  Only then will the team truly know which FA's will actually complement the talents of the youngsters.

If the Tigers have no realistic expectation to compete the next 2 years (they don't!) ..then I do not care if they lose 100 + games each of the next 2 seasons.  I would rather get a top 5 draft pick with a 60-102 season than a bottom 10 draft pick with a 72-90 season.  

If they cannot compete ..then might as well lose like losers.

 

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42 minutes ago, Charles Liston said:

That is quite the free agent list.  My most common reaction was "is that guy still playing?"

In a couple of cases, my reaction was "Is he a real player?"  Miguel Del Pozo?  

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8 hours ago, Oblong said:

For all the "how did this team not win the WS" talk about that era I always go back to the fact that they never had home field advantage in the playoffs except for the '06 WS because of the ASG that year....

Yes they were good but at any single point in time they were never considered the best team and played against teams with better records. Just because you won the division in 2011 doesn't give you any advantage in 2013 or 2014.  The 2014 team was a lot different thant he 2012 team as well.

Those teams had shaky bullpens and too many holes in the lineup....  it wasn't like the starters were all Cy Young contenders either.

We're overrating them.

If the Tigers had the Verlander and Sanchez of 2019 in 2014 they probably would have won a few more games in the regular season and perhaps performed better in the post-season. Verlander had his worst season in 2014 (worst ERA in the AL of any starter with more than 100 innings) and Sanchez was hurt on and off. 

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