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IdahoBert

2019-2020 OFFSEASON DISCUSSION THREAD

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11 hours ago, 1776 said:

Jason Beck’s response, in part, to an inquiry about where the Tiger’s analytics department is nowadays. My concern from the beginning is expressed below.

“So far, the Tigers face a recurring problem on the analytics front: Every team is in on it, and most of them enjoyed a significant head start. For all Detroit is doing, other teams also are advancing, meaning Detroit is still playing catch-up according to many outside the organization. If and when the Tigers catch up, simply doing the same thing as everyone else isn’t going to gain to edge, at least in terms of player acquisition. The initial purpose of the analytics revolution was to identify market inefficiencies that others were missing. When every team does the same thing and reaches the same evaluation, there’s a risk of groupthink. The Tigers need a creative edge, a distinguishing factor.”

 

 

I think it's a myth that there is always some secret competitive edge that forward thinking teams have and that analytics is the panacea for turning a team around. Analytics is merely collecting useful data and being able to analyze it to improve decision making. But the prime factor in building a competitive team is, and always has been, the acquisition of talent, and that is primarily a function of scouting, finding and acquiring high end talent, and the developing those skills in the system. It's a focus on high risk, high reward young players in the draft and international markets, who have the skills to dominate (power, speed, bat to ball skills, athleticism, arm strength, work ethic) if not necessarily the present statistics.

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development.... that's always been what I have harped on.  I do not believe the guys you draft or sign or finished product.  It is possible to take two of the same players via skills and work ethic and one org can turn him into a superstar and the other turns into nothing.  

It shouldn't be revolutionary to staff a team that a majority consists of league average players.  

All I'm asking is for a team that doesn't lose 95+ games year in and year out.  Can we at least get to 86 wins and go from there?  If you don't mind spending money it shouldn't be hard.

What teams are looking for is doing as little as possible to maximize revenue.

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at this point, everyone should have concerns about every level of tigers' management, from the owner to the general manager, the the scouts, to the coaches.  they've been the worst franchise in the league for a few years now with no discernible end to that in sight, and seemingly no plan to get out of it other than to draft a few slots higher than everyone else for the forseeable future.

 

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1 hour ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

Yeah, I am much more concerned about development, but I do have analytics concerns.

IDK, hitting and controlling a major league breaking ball are both such umpteenth std dev outlier skills that I think it's pretty hard to know how many guys fall through the cracks due to poor coaching "missing" their talent vs that they just didn't have the capability to begin with. Sure, there must be *some* guys for whom it is true that their organization mishandled them so badly that their talent was lost, but I think it's a pretty hard thing to get a handle on. As I have posted in the past, I am sympathetic to the age related argument - I think, just based on  what I understand about human development, that is possible that you can have a window close on your ability to do some particular thing well if you don't get a chance to develop the skill at a young enough age, but to me that is still just a likely postulate, I can't point to any direct data wrt baseball - hitting in particular.

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2 hours ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

Yeah, I am much more concerned about development, but I do have analytics concerns.

And, of course, the two are not mutually exclusive. Ideally they should be integrated.  

I do agree with others that development is more important than finding market inefficiencies.  

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I suspect coaches as a group screw up more players than get something significantly more out of player that had been lying dormant.

But that maybe because the level is so high it is rare for a player to reach it and still have significant untapped potential.

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The guys on MLB Radio's Power Alley were discussing the Tigers this morning and it was a bleak listen.  Nothing we don't know, but they went through the current roster and tried to think of players that would be part of a good team.  Their conclusion, after a lot of sighs and chuckles, was Reyes as a 4th outfielder and Goodrum as a utility player. For pitchers, maybe Turnbull and Jiminez if they improve. They acknowledged that the arrival of Mize-Manning-Skrubal should be a source of some promise, but could come up with absolutely no reason for excitement on the offense side.

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2 minutes ago, lordstanley said:

The guys on MLB Radio's Power Alley were discussing the Tigers this morning and it was a bleak listen.  Nothing we don't know, but they went through the current roster and tried to think of players that would be part of a good team.  Their conclusion, after a lot of sighs and chuckles, was Reyes as a 4th outfielder and Goodrum as a utility player. For pitchers, maybe Turnbull and Jiminez if they improve. They acknowledged that the arrival of Mize-Manning-Skrubal should be a source of some promise, but could come up with absolutely no reason for excitement on the offense side.

Boyd is another one that could be part of a good team.  Maybe Jones as a utility player.  It is very bleak though.  They have no position players that would play more than a utility role on a decent team. 

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I'm willing to give Stewart one more year before writing him off as a possible DH.     I'm also willing to to give Candalario a little more time before giving up on him but that ship is definitely sailing pretty quickly.  

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41 minutes ago, Shelton said:

The tigers need to add more players that could play for a different team. 

Lol

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A few months ago I read somewhere - can't find it now - an article that listed the WAR for players teams drafted over the years. Boston was head and shoulders above everyone. Detroit was in the bottom 5. Player development has to improve. And someone needs to figure out how to make cat pee smell less pungent 

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Player development, drafting, international signing and scouting definitely have to improve.  It's hard to pin point exactly what is the biggest problem though.   They of course all have sucked but it's not like a ton of our prospects have turned out great after we traded them so it's hard to say if it is development or we just never gotten good players to begin with.  

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My impression of Gardenhire is that he doesn’t know what’s going on. What information that does get down to him he doesn’t really understand it. I’d prefer they had a manager that was already fluent in the “cutting edge” approach used today but still had some time in the dugout in a leadership role. I know Gardy is a temporary babysitter but I’d prefer a manager that can sit at the table with the GM and be an informed voice. I hope the little talent in the system doesn’t get exposed to Gardy. 

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SF is interviewing Joe Espada and Gabe Kapler a second time. I don’t really care for Kapler but I’d definitely look at Espada. He is the kind of guy I would like to see. I think he’ll get the SF job.

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2 minutes ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

Kapler to Tigers just to come full circle.

Like Ausmus.

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