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2019-2020 OFFSEASON DISCUSSION THREAD

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15 hours ago, Gehringer_2 said:

The shift for Anibal has been to fewer fastballs, fewer sliders, and fewer sinkers, all pitches being replaced on a percentage basis by cutters. TBF, as per fangraphs, he did first start throwing the cutter in Detroit in 2016, threw a bit more in 2017 but started throwing it a lot in 2018 in Atlanta and threw it 28% of time with the Nats.

OTOH, he had been moving away from his sinker before he came to Det but went back to it a little here. I wonder if that was encouraged by the Tigers. Going back to Leyland, Det management had a long time love affair with the sinker, and that may the the pitch that is most out of favor with teams like Houston et al. Anibal threw less than 10% sinkers the last 2 yrs.

I think the sinker is not a bad pitch, but it's probably the one most prone to results decay as the order turns over the 2nd and 3rd time. I think it's the pitch hitters are most able to adjust to if they get to see it repeatedly.

I'm not smart enough to quantify it but I always thought Anibal's problems in Det were pitch selection related, along with stamina.  He would be so so good and then get hammered with a HR.  When I see that it tells me the hitter guessed right. He never lost his stuff he just wasn't throwing the right pitch and the righ ttime.

 

 

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I wonder what Joel Zumaya's money situation is? Piecing together some sources it looks like he made about $4.6 million in major league salaries, plus whatever he would have gotten as an 11th rounder in 2002 (probably not more than low to mid five figures), minor leagues (almost nothing), and whatever endorsement deals he might have gotten both locally and with the Guitar Hero people. So, maybe around $5 million total? Of which he probably kept around 60% of it, so $3 million in the bank. If he was smart with his money he might still have a good deal of it left. I hope he's got some good work going now. Maybe he said as much in his great interview on 97.1, but the News article about it doesn't say.

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16 minutes ago, chasfh said:

If he was smart with his money he might still have a good deal of it left. I hope he's got some good work going now. Maybe he said as much in his great interview on 97.1, but the News article about it doesn't say.

please take a closer look at the picture posted above.  You might find your answer there.

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I thought he was doing some fishing charter work....

He's on facebook and seems happy.

 

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3 minutes ago, Oblong said:

I thought he was doing some fishing charter work....

He's on facebook and seems happy.

 

I'm Facebook friends--he posts a lot of videos.  Seems like he's on a fish charter boat quite a bit.  Very likable guy.

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On 10/13/2019 at 9:23 AM, Charles Liston said:

That's always made me laugh too, that a ball that's low in the zone can't be hit hard.  

There was a great anecdote in Ball Four where the pitchers mused, in MLB managers' collective mind, if there ever was a well executed pitch that was hit hard, or if every single MLB hit was off of **** pitches.

Jim Pagliaroni then told a story early in his career about how he was dropping to his knees to block a pitch going in the dirt only to see the batter go down and club it for a home run.  At the end of the inning (HoF) manager Al Lopez b****ed to the pitcher about the pitch he hung for a HR.  Jim stepped in in said, no it was really low with a lot of bite and the batter just golfed it.  Al replied 'horse****, the pitch was hung waist high'.

So, yeah.

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I've said it a bunch of times but I thought Anibal was toast in like 2015 or 16.  For reference for me at the time to know he would be performing the way he is now would be akin to somebody telling me now that Zimmermann is going to be a key cob in a 2023 LCS team's rotation.  It's just something I could never fathom. 

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13 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said:

I've said it a bunch of times but I thought Anibal was toast in like 2015 or 16.  For reference for me at the time to know he would be performing the way he is now would be akin to somebody telling me now that Zimmermann is going to be a key cob in a 2023 LCS team's rotation.  It's just something I could never fathom. 

I mostly worried that there was no way Anibal could hold up as if I recall correctly, he is one of those guys with two TJs, or maybe one TJ and one some other serious surgery. At any rate I'm sure he has had two major surgical issues. I was alway waiting for his next start to be the last of his career, but good for him it never happened.

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7 hours ago, Chili Mac Davis said:

Washington one game closer to WS tonight.

Its amusing to think Dave Martinez was on pretty thin ice earlier this season.  And now here they are 1 win away from a World Series.

Are there still transportation issues to/from DC's stadium?  I remember there was something about lack of parking and something about mass transit options being shut down around midnight.

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1 hour ago, Casimir said:

Its amusing to think Dave Martinez was on pretty thin ice earlier this season.  And now here they are 1 win away from a World Series.

At the 50-game mark this season .. the Nats were 19-31.  They then went 74-38 in their remaining 112 games, including winning their last 8 regular season games.

I love it that they have done it without Bryce Harper.  ... ... ... ... I love it that Bryce Harper and Manny Machado both missed the playoffs.

Hitting is good .. but pitching, pitching, pitching typically wins in the playoffs!

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51 minutes ago, Tigrrfan said:

I love it that they have done it without Bryce Harper.  ... ... ... ...

Yup. I think historically paying top dollar for best hitters is a strategic mistake. You just get more win potential spending your resources on a depth of good hitters rather than one great one - assuming you even get the great hitter you think you paid for, which in the Phillies case is pretty questionable. Question is less clear with pitchers though. Paying for top pitching is risky but at least can pay off big if they stay healthy - as the Astros have proven with JV and the Nats with Max.

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54 minutes ago, Tigrrfan said:

 

I love it that they have done it without Bryce Harper.  ... ... ... ... I love it that Bryce Harper and Manny Machado both missed the playoffs.

How sweet it is!

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25 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

Yup. I think historically paying top dollar for best hitters is a strategic mistake. You just get more win potential spending your resources on a depth of good hitters rather than one great one - assuming you even get the great hitter you think you paid for, which in the Phillies case is pretty questionable. Question is less clear with pitchers though. Paying for top pitching is risky but at least can pay off big if they stay healthy - as the Astros have proven with JV and the Nats with Max.

That sounds very simplistic.  It depends on so many things like what other players are on the team and the team's budget.   Harper's problem is not that he's an expensive hitter.  It's that he isn't hitting as well as he was expected to hit.  If he really was a top hitter, he could help a team as much as a top pitcher.  

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Over my third cup of coffee this morning I told my wife that one advantage of being a Tiger fan is that you never have to fret the pressure of winning playoff games. There are none.

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40 minutes ago, tiger337 said:

 If he really was a top hitter, he could help a team as much as a top pitcher.  

I don't think this is true. There is a basic asymmetry in the game. The marginal increase in performance at the limit in a starting pitcher has far more ability to influence a game than the marginal increase in performance of a hitter at the limit. Miguel Cabrera in one of his MVP seasons never had as much direct influence on the out come of games as Verlander does even if he is in more of them. (Which is why I have a lot of issue with pitcher vs hitter WAR)  But while I think what I just wrote is true, that isn't even the exact point I was trying to get to, which is more about the economics. If you redistribute the run producing potential of one expensive hitter across three hitters down at the bottom of your order by replacing your worst hitters with better hitters you will still get a similar bump in run production, and probably for less money, but you can't do that with pitching. I think a top starting pitcher increases you winning percentage in games more than two average/good ones at total the same cost  do. Particularly in a playoff scenario with you likely facing a good hitting team. Or maybe more succinctly: you pay more for marginal WAR with hitters than you do for pitchers. And I think the reason is that injury risk suppresses the market cost of pitchers. Which is why I said initially that they pay off better IF they stay healthy.

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For a stretch, 2011-2014, this time of year was stressful for me in terms of planning around the home games given the unpredictable nature of TV scheduling and weather issues.  One year they moved up the game a few hours against Oakland at the last minute.  Another they postponed a nighttime Yankee game once we got there, and it never rained until after midnight, then we had to come back the next afternoon (that was the 2012 ALCS clincher).  I also recall a night game against Oakland followed immediately by a 12 pm game the next day.   "See you in about 9 hours" as I dropped my friends off, who ended up staying at the same house due to travel times).

There was also the stress going into the playoffs on the final day as TV wanted to see the matchups so you'd not know going into the weekend if you needed to take time off on Monday.....

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17 minutes ago, Oblong said:

For a stretch, 2011-2014, this time of year was stressful for me in terms of planning around the home games given the unpredictable nature of TV scheduling and weather issues.  One year they moved up the game a few hours against Oakland at the last minute.  Another they postponed a nighttime Yankee game once we got there, and it never rained until after midnight, then we had to come back the next afternoon (that was the 2012 ALCS clincher).  I also recall a night game against Oakland followed immediately by a 12 pm game the next day.   "See you in about 9 hours" as I dropped my friends off, who ended up staying at the same house due to travel times).

There was also the stress going into the playoffs on the final day as TV wanted to see the matchups so you'd not know going into the weekend if you needed to take time off on Monday.....

First world problems, indeed! ?

You'd like those problems right now, wouldn't you?

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35 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

I don't think this is true. There is a basic asymmetry in the game. The marginal increase in performance at the limit in a starting pitcher has far more ability to influence a game than the marginal increase in performance of a hitter at the limit. Miguel Cabrera in one of his MVP seasons never had as much direct influence on the out come of games as Verlander does even if he is in more of them. (Which is why I have a lot of issue with pitcher vs hitter WAR)  But while I think what I just wrote is true, that isn't even the exact point I was trying to get to, which is more about the economics. If you redistribute the run producing potential of one expensive hitter across three hitters down at the bottom of your order by replacing your worst hitters with better hitters you will still get a similar bump in run production, and probably for less money, but you can't do that with pitching. I think a top starting pitcher increases you winning percentage in games more than two average/good ones at total the same cost  do. Particularly in a playoff scenario with you likely facing a good hitting team. Or maybe more succinctly: you pay more for marginal WAR with hitters than you do for pitchers. And I think the reason is that injury risk suppresses the market cost of pitchers. Which is why I said initially that they pay off better IF they stay healthy.

Yes, a pitcher has more influence in one game, but a hitter plays in a lot more games.  If we  are talking playoffs, then I agree a pitcher can have more importance.  Due to all the days off, he can pitch in a greater percentage of his team's games than he can in the regular season.  You have to make the playoffs first though which is what I thought we were talking about with Harper and Washington.  

 

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6 minutes ago, chasfh said:

First world problems, indeed! ?

You'd like those problems right now, wouldn't you?

totally... wife was not so understanding though.  In a small way she was happy when the Tigers playoff season ended.  Maybe not so small way.  "I have my  husband back.... yay!" 

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2 hours ago, chasfh said:

You'd like those problems right now, wouldn't you?

The loss of sleep during the longer playoff runs can wear on one.  Those pre 5am wake ups are kind of tough.

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