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2019-2020 OFFSEASON DISCUSSION THREAD

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23 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

anyone think Nova will stay in the rotation for this whole 'season'?

If he’s healthy, yes. 

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1 hour ago, Gehringer_2 said:

anyone think Nova will stay in the rotation for this whole 'season'?

50 innings? sure why not

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I think we should call this a hole season instead of a whole season

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3 hours ago, RatkoVarda said:

50 innings? sure why not

because if the last two weeks and his last few seasons have been any indication, he won't get many people out? 

My guess is it depends on Fulmer.  You have Boyd, Fulmer, Turnbull, Nova, and probably Norris once he gets stretched out. So if Nova is ineffective, the pitcher he is blocking is the pitcher that emerges as the top candidate in Toledo  (i.e. likely  Mize) I can easily see them releasing Nova if the choice is giving the top prospect a shot. Conversely, if Fulmer is not ready to hold down his spot (or something else happens to Norris), Nova won't be blocking the top young pitcher so I'd rate him more likely to stick around and take his loses.

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You can never ever have too much starting pitching.

Not sure it applies here, but always looking for an excuse to say it.  

 

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2 hours ago, tiger337 said:

You can never ever have too much starting pitching.

Not sure it applies here, but always looking for an excuse to say it.  

 

✔️

I read they decided to piggyback with Fulmer so that adds one more 

I just want to see if Avila wants to win games or figures a 60 game season is short enough to make one more tank the preferred play.

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7 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

✔️

I read they decided to piggyback with Fulmer so that adds one more 

I just want to see if Avila wants to win games or figures a 60 game season is short enough to make one more tank the preferred play.

Interesting point.  I'd go all out for the first 20 games and try to win as many as possible.  After 20 games, if by some miracle they were 12 and 8, press on, call up the young rocket arms, and try to steal a playoff position.  Once you are in the playoffs, you never know. 

It would be tempting to try for the 1-1 draft pick again but there's no guarantee that the team would stink bad enough to lock up that choice.  If the team is only bad enough to get the 4th pick then I say forget about tanking, go all out to try to steal a playoff spot.

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5 hours ago, Charles Liston said:

Interesting point.  I'd go all out for the first 20 games and try to win as many as possible.  After 20 games, if by some miracle they were 12 and 8, press on, call up the young rocket arms, and try to steal a playoff position.  Once you are in the playoffs, you never know. 

It would be tempting to try for the 1-1 draft pick again but there's no guarantee that the team would stink bad enough to lock up that choice.  If the team is only bad enough to get the 4th pick then I say forget about tanking, go all out to try to steal a playoff spot.

Good plan

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6 hours ago, Charles Liston said:

Interesting point.  I'd go all out for the first 20 games and try to win as many as possible.  After 20 games, if by some miracle they were 12 and 8, press on, call up the young rocket arms, and try to steal a playoff position.  Once you are in the playoffs, you never know. 

It would be tempting to try for the 1-1 draft pick again but there's no guarantee that the team would stink bad enough to lock up that choice.  If the team is only bad enough to get the 4th pick then I say forget about tanking, go all out to try to steal a playoff spot.

Their best stretch of 60 consecutive games last season were the first 60 games, a blistering 23-37 .383% which includes the 13-14 start in March & April.

There were 102 combinations of 60 consecutive game stretches last season.  Of those 102 combinations, they had only 9 where they were able to win 20 or more games within a 60 game window.

After May, they were 25-81.

Now, they've added some guys via health and free agency and (hopefully) career progression.  So they shouldn't be as bad as they were last season.  But this season is just so out of the ordinary that we have no idea what can happen.

I wouldn't be adverse to "earning" another top tier pick.  Its only been 5 seasons since the last playoffs, 3 since a winning record.  We've seen uglier eras.  We're talking a 60 game tank season to pick up another top piece in the 1st round, as well as the overall draft day bounty with which to play in all of the rounds.  Its a 60 game season where if they suck, its going to be over quickly, its not going to be a long drawn out normal season of suck.  Heck, we're going to be happy just to see any baseball this year.

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3 hours ago, leflore said:

When you consider the absolute mess both with depth of talent and systemic shortcomings that Avila inherited from DD, I think overall he's done a good job. Hard to not feel darn hopeful looking at Fenech's top 15 list

https://www.freep.com/story/sports/mlb/tigers/2020/07/21/detroit-tigers-top-prospects-2020/5470181002/

Avila has done a horrible job. The farm system is top heavy, with nice prospects thanks to top ten picks, but after 6 it falls off dramatically. Guys like Cameron, Faedo, Meadows, Perez, Rogers, etc are just not good prospects right now. Maybe one will break out, but not likely.

For all of the prospects we received for Verlander, JD, Wilson/Avila, Kinsler, Upton and Greene deals, only Parades is looking like a decent bet right now, who really doesn't have a high ceiling. He hasn't hit on any latin amerericans recently. His top 5 prospects include 2 number 1 overall picks, a number 5 overall, a number 8, and Skubal who was a nice find. 

If there is some attrition in the top 6, and odds are there will be, this rebuild has a few more years left in it. Avila/Chad/Plies have to go.

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Again, considering the mess Avila inherited imho he has done a good.job.  Mike Illitch had just fired DD following his trading Cespedes and Price. The owner was still in win-now mode do Al didn't have the option of starting the rebuild earlier, when that's what was really needed. When he started the rebuild he set out on a plan and he has stuck to that plan. That included building metrics for the big club but also player development. Do you expect hits on every draft pick? That's not realistic. And there are a few international signings that show promise. My point was he inherited sh*t and within a few years has things on a what appears to be a solid path. The next HUGE unknown is whether or not Chris Illitch will truly open his wallet for FAs. So we disagree 

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6 hours ago, Stanley70 said:

Avila has done a horrible job. The farm system is top heavy, with nice prospects thanks to top ten picks, but after 6 it falls off dramatically. Guys like Cameron, Faedo, Meadows, Perez, Rogers, etc are just not good prospects right now. Maybe one will break out, but not likely.

For all of the prospects we received for Verlander, JD, Wilson/Avila, Kinsler, Upton and Greene deals, only Parades is looking like a decent bet right now, who really doesn't have a high ceiling. He hasn't hit on any latin amerericans recently. His top 5 prospects include 2 number 1 overall picks, a number 5 overall, a number 8, and Skubal who was a nice find. 

If there is some attrition in the top 6, and odds are there will be, this rebuild has a few more years left in it. Avila/Chad/Plies have to go.

Wentz should be in the top 10 and 11 through 20 is much much better than it has been in a long time. I think Horrible is a bit harsh. I think he has done  solid "B" work. Analytics are now starting to play a role, the farm is deeper and he nailed the last three first round picks. The fear I have with Al is his shopping in  free agency . Zimmerman and Pelfrey left a mark. But Cron and Schoop might stick around awhile.Time will tell.

Get a solid shortstop and catcher and we just might make some noise in 2022 and beyond.

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37 minutes ago, socaltiger said:

Wentz should be in the top 10 and 11 through 20 is much much better than it has been in a long time. I think Horrible is a bit harsh. I think he has done  solid "B" work. Analytics are now starting to play a role, the farm is deeper and he nailed the last three first round picks. The fear I have with Al is his shopping in  free agency . Zimmerman and Pelfrey left a mark. But Cron and Schoop might stick around awhile.Time will tell.

Get a solid shortstop and catcher and we just might make some noise in 2022 and beyond.

Indians need pitching -  can't afford Lindor. Hmmm...

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Lindor would be perfect. Looks like a Yankee I am afraid. Corriea plan "B" ? Maybe Evan a trade for Wiley Adames since they have Franco coming fast.

 

Or would you trade Mize to KC for Witt ??

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I don't know much about Witt so not sure if Id trade Mize for him,  in general Id prefer the hitter due to injury risk but I still feel Mize has Cy Young winner ceiling, not sure Witt has a comparable ceiling.

Iirc I think KC's system is pretty deep in pitching so they'd probably say no anyway.

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11 hours ago, socaltiger said:

Lindor would be perfect. Looks like a Yankee I am afraid. Corriea plan "B" ? Maybe Evan a trade for Wiley Adames since they have Franco coming fast.

 

Or would you trade Mize to KC for Witt ??

Yup.

I wouldn't call Lindor to the Yankees a sure thing in 2022.  Just eyeballing the contract obligations per bbref, New York is at $103M committed with a possible $215M which would include arbitration cases and Britton's team option.  It'll be interesting to see how this season's loss of revenue impacts the future.

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On 7/21/2020 at 7:31 AM, Casimir said:

Their best stretch of 60 consecutive games last season were the first 60 games, a blistering 23-37 .383% which includes the 13-14 start in March & April.

There were 102 combinations of 60 consecutive game stretches last season.  Of those 102 combinations, they had only 9 where they were able to win 20 or more games within a 60 game window.

After May, they were 25-81.

Now, they've added some guys via health and free agency and (hopefully) career progression.  So they shouldn't be as bad as they were last season.  But this season is just so out of the ordinary that we have no idea what can happen.

I wouldn't be adverse to "earning" another top tier pick.  Its only been 5 seasons since the last playoffs, 3 since a winning record.  We've seen uglier eras.  We're talking a 60 game tank season to pick up another top piece in the 1st round, as well as the overall draft day bounty with which to play in all of the rounds.  Its a 60 game season where if they suck, its going to be over quickly, its not going to be a long drawn out normal season of suck.  Heck, we're going to be happy just to see any baseball this year.

You're just being a buzzkill because you can't watch the games anyway. 

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18 minutes ago, Tigertown Rats said:

You're just being a buzzkill because you can't watch the games anyway. 

I'm just being a buzzkill because I'm a buzzkill.

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I do not need to know the teams just the number of them each season....how many "come out of nowhere" to really compete?

Seems like there is at least one every year, but that may very well be wishful thinking for a fan of a team that has not been competing lately.

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6 hours ago, Casimir said:

Yup.

I wouldn't call Lindor to the Yankees a sure thing in 2022.  Just eyeballing the contract obligations per bbref, New York is at $103M committed with a possible $215M which would include arbitration cases and Britton's team option.  It'll be interesting to see how this season's loss of revenue impacts the future.

Just to clear up this a bit. Sportrac has them at 135 million which is the third highest in baseball.

And it doesn't include significant raises to guys like Sanchez and judge. If the yanks want to stay under 215, not sure they can drop 30 on lindor

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26 minutes ago, Keepleyland2 said:

Just to clear up this a bit. Sportrac has them at 135 million which is the third highest in baseball.

And it doesn't include significant raises to guys like Sanchez and judge. If the yanks want to stay under 215, not sure they can drop 30 on lindor

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/NYY/new-york-yankees-salaries-and-contracts.shtml

This is the page that I was looking at.  I mentioned the $103M, you have the $135M.  But let's be honest, they're going to playing around the $200M and higher, save for any adjustments due to COIVD.

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1 hour ago, Casimir said:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/NYY/new-york-yankees-salaries-and-contracts.shtml

This is the page that I was looking at.  I mentioned the $103M, you have the $135M.  But let's be honest, they're going to playing around the $200M and higher, save for any adjustments due to COIVD.

103 is for 2022. The yanks are at 135 next year per your link.

Then you have to add in the likely $30 million to Sanchez and judge so they are up to $165 with like 12 players under contract. So thats what i was pointing out that lindor to them isn't a slam dunk if they want to stay under thr luxury. 

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