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2019-2020 OFFSEASON DISCUSSION THREAD

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10 hours ago, chasfh said:

Performance data sugggests it’s earlier:

Aging_2.png

Explanation:

This is a two-axis chart, with the left axis the total number of pitchers of a certain age and the right their total fWAR. For example, between 1988 and 2013 there were a total of 537 seasons pitched by pitchers who were 22, and the total fWAR was 327.9. In this time span pitchers join major league rosters around age 23-24, peak around 26 with a sustained decrease in numbers from 27 on that gradually flattens out a bit around age 35.

Aging_3.png

More here:

https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2014/2/25/5437902/pitching-aging-curves

 

 

1 hour ago, Casimir said:

That said, I think it'd be wise for the Tigers to have veteran starter or two around when the pitching prospects come up, but Boyd might end up being one of them.  Sure he's not going to peak like Wainwright or Bumgardner did, but I don't think they need a Cy Young caliber pitcher around nor do they need that type of contract which could end up hampering them like Zimmermann or Cabrera.

Again, Bumgarner is 30 years old .. will not be 31 until August 1, 2020.  He is a solid 10-year MLB veteran pitcher who has been quite successful during regular season and post season. 

Even during the past 3 seasons ..his ERA remained 3.90 or less ..and his yearly WAR ranged from 2.4 to 3.1.  His ERA+ remained 107 or better ..while his FIP improved slightly last year from the prior 2 years. 

Madison was able to pitch 208 innings last year after only 230 total the prior 2 years combined when he battled through injuries. 

Each of past three seasons would have been considered rather successful if he would have been a part of the Detroit Tiger pitching staff.

Looking at that chart ..and considering his past success ..is there any reason to expect that his age 30 through 35 seasons wouldn't be successful at at least the chart average?  Seems to me a pitcher of his talent would likely produce above average per the chart.  

As Casimir said ..it might be wise to have a veteran pitcher around for the next 5 or 6 seasons. 

If $90m/6yrs could get it done ..why not get it done?  

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9 minutes ago, Tigrrfan said:

As Casimir said ..it might be wise to have a veteran pitcher around for the next 5 or 6 seasons. 

That's not really what I said.

1 hour ago, Casimir said:

I don't know.  He was good until age 33, but definitely regressed at age 34 and hasn't recovered since.  He had an Achilles tendon rupture that cost him most of that age 33 season.

That said, I think it'd be wise for the Tigers to have veteran starter or two around when the pitching prospects come up, but Boyd might end up being one of them.  Sure he's not going to peak like Wainwright or Bumgardner did, but I don't think they need a Cy Young caliber pitcher around nor do they need that type of contract which could end up hampering them like Zimmermann or Cabrera.

I don't see any reason to have a veteran on hand until the pitching prospects come up.  I don't really see them bubbling up until 2021.  I mean, they will have to fill out the rotation next season, but not at the expense of what Bumgardner is going to command.  If it only costs 3 or 4 seasons, I might be interested.  But I suspect he's going to want a longer deal than that.  And I don't want to be in the hook for any more long term overpays that just decline on the field.

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2 hours ago, Casimir said:

They are probably best to acquire a veteran infielder and a veteran outfielder.  Schoop is probably the kind of free agent that the Tigers would kick the tires on.  He definitely would be a power upgrade over CastroH, but is it worth the price tag?  I guess if you consider Goodrum (and/or CastroH) move over to SS and buy some time for CastroW in Toledo to settle out his bat, it might not be so bad.

Good Lord, check out the MLB 162 game average BB/SO ratios for the two.  24/144 for Schoop.  14/138 for CastroH.

Is 2/20 worth the price tag? YMMV, but my mileage says hells, yeah, that's worth the price tag. Even the price of two years is manageable. It's not as though he's blocking anyone right now.

The idea is that we're not looking for the guys to be on the championship Tigers in 2020-whatever. We're looking the guys that can bridge the gap and help us put a respectable team on the field until then, instead of punting on entire seasons and resigning ourselves to losing 110+ games. Maybe a 1:6 BB/SO ratio is a problem for a contender, but it works just fine for a team rebuilding.

That said, I'd be surprised if 2/20 is his best offer. But on the chance it's not, I would do this deal ten times out of ten.

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19 minutes ago, chasfh said:

 

Is 2/20 worth the price tag? YMMV, but my mileage says hells, yeah, that's worth the price tag. Even the price of two years is manageable. It's not as though he's blocking anyone right now.

The idea is that we're not looking for the guys to be on the championship Tigers in 2020-whatever. We're looking the guys that can bridge the gap and help us put a respectable team on the field until then, instead of punting on entire seasons and resigning ourselves to losing 110+ games. Maybe a 1:6 BB/SO ratio is a problem for a contender, but it works just fine for a team rebuilding.

That said, I'd be surprised if 2/20 is his best offer. But on the chance it's not, I would do this deal ten times out of ten.

Along the same vein, what does Didi Gregorius get?  Each is #9 on the other's bbref similarity score.

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Didi probably gets more than that because even though this numbers are way down this year, he has a better and more consistent track record than Schoop. Plus, not for nothing, he's been with the Yankees and the market might unconsciously be paying a slight premium for that. Didi is basically auditioning this month for the Yankees to give him some years this winter, so on that count the playoffs is sort of make or break for him.

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1 hour ago, Casimir said:

That said, I think it'd be wise for the Tigers to have veteran starter or two around when the pitching prospects come up, but Boyd might end up being one of them. 

 

1 hour ago, Casimir said:
1 hour ago, Tigrrfan said:

As Casimir said ..it might be wise to have a veteran pitcher around for the next 5 or 6 seasons. 

 

 

1 hour ago, Casimir said:

That's not really what I said.

 

True .. you did not really say 'that'. 

You did say "...it'd be wise to have a veteran pitcher around..."  Yes, you then clearly elaborated upon it and qualified it ..but still, you did suggest it would be wise to have a veteran pitcher around.  I admittedly took your words out of context in order to suggest it might also be wise in my context.  Therefore ..please accept my apology for misquoting.  

Every Championship team builds their rosters via several avenues ..including home-grown, trades, and Free Agents.  I just want to see the Tigers show this off season that they are totally serious about the full rebuild and to show that the team can be competitive within 5 years from the JD/JV/JUp trades in 2017.  I think the Tigers could show that by acquiring a quality starter who may be around long enough to enjoy a World Series with the team.    

Perhaps now is not the time to sign a veteran pitcher via Free Agency.  Even if it were ..perhaps Madison Bumgarner is not a logical choice for the money.  But upon reviewing at Sportrac the upcoming FA' Starting Pitchers the next three years ..not sure what other FA pitcher might be a logical option in the $15m per year range even if for 6/yrs. 

Anything above $15m/yr and I probably would not have suggested it ..even for MG.

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17 minutes ago, thefunk said:

Go get Matt Kemp

Another aging, injury-prone player?  Sure, that sounds like something Avila would do. 

He did sign a minor-league deal with the Mets last year and it's hard to be against any minor league deal.  

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42 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Didi probably gets more than that because even though this numbers are way down this year, he has a better and more consistent track record than Schoop. Plus, not for nothing, he's been with the Yankees and the market might unconsciously be paying a slight premium for that. Didi is basically auditioning this month for the Yankees to give him some years this winter, so on that count the playoffs is sort of make or break for him.

True, I can agree with the logic why Gregorius will likely command more than Schoop.  Its probably also worth noting that Gregorious will be 30 and Schoop will be 28 next season, so maybe the difference won't be as much.

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30 minutes ago, Tigrrfan said:

 

 

 

 

True .. you did not really say 'that'. 

You did say "...it'd be wise to have a veteran pitcher around..."  Yes, you then clearly elaborated upon it and qualified it ..but still, you did suggest it would be wise to have a veteran pitcher around.  I admittedly took your words out of context in order to suggest it might also be wise in my context.  Therefore ..please accept my apology for misquoting.  

Every Championship team builds their rosters via several avenues ..including home-grown, trades, and Free Agents.  I just want to see the Tigers show this off season that they are totally serious about the full rebuild and to show that the team can be competitive within 5 years from the JD/JV/JUp trades in 2017.  I think the Tigers could show that by acquiring a quality starter who may be around long enough to enjoy a World Series with the team.    

Perhaps now is not the time to sign a veteran pitcher via Free Agency.  Even if it were ..perhaps Madison Bumgarner is not a logical choice for the money.  But upon reviewing at Sportrac the upcoming FA' Starting Pitchers the next three years ..not sure what other FA pitcher might be a logical option in the $15m per year range even if for 6/yrs. 

Anything above $15m/yr and I probably would not have suggested it ..even for MG.

I wouldn't toss a 6 year deal at a starting pitcher in his 30s with lots of innings pitched under his belt.  That's not logical.

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Plus Bumgarner is ticking down in FIP and ticking up for giving up hard hits.

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13 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Plus Bumgarner is ticking down in FIP and ticking up for giving up hard hits.

Yup.

Hey, it happens to the best of them.  CC Sabathia was once an uber talent.  Now he's left off of the postseason roster.  The one that it hasn't happened to yet was traded way by the Tigers.

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4 minutes ago, Casimir said:

Yup.

Hey, it happens to the best of them.  CC Sabathia was once an uber talent.  Now he's left off of the postseason roster.  The one that it hasn't happened to yet was traded way by the Tigers.

Exactly. Remember what happened the last time we threw years and big money at a well above average soon-to-be-30 pitcher?

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47 minutes ago, chasfh said:

He ranks 5th place in the AL Central.  

While Al Avila is the 5th best GM in the AL Central ..that means he is also (overwhelmingly) the worst.

But do not worry.  Chris I is please with his 'progress.'

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1 hour ago, Tigrrfan said:

But do not worry.  Chris I is please with his 'progress.'

Hence the totally unwarranted extension. 

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The only reason I'd be looking at low-to-mid cost veterans would be as potential trade chips next summer.  A temporary lift to not as bad isn't worth slipping back in draft and waiver position.  Winning 5-7 more games next year with short-term fixes wouldn't be less painful than this year and wouldn't do anything positive for the future. 

And the Tigers aren't at a stage where signing someone like Bumgarner multi-year makes sense.  Nor would signing w/the Tigers at this stage make sense for him.

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I’m worried that when the good young pitching arrives there won’t be any offense to support them.

It got really tedious this last season when there were numerous well pitched games that were wasted due to deficient run support.

I don’t think drafting hitters is going to help guys who are going to be pitching here in the next year or two. They’re actually going to have to obtain offensive clout through trade or free agency. 

I get the feeling that’s the last thing this team intends on doing. 

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Avila is the new Matt Millen, and Chris I is the new WCFS.  Chris is happy being horrible and doesn't have a clue that his GM shows near-zero ability to pull them out of it.

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What more needs to happen to demonstrate this FOs ineptitude?

EDIT: I mean, other than Paws failing at mime time?

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