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2019-2020 OFFSEASON DISCUSSION THREAD

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Disclaimer: I’m a huge Bumgarner fan. I follow all his starts.

I believe he will prefer the NL over the AL. He likes to hit as much as he likes to pitch. I’d be surprised if he didn’t stay in the NL. 

Wainwright proved you can still pitch well into your 30’s. Bumgarner finished with the second most innings pitched in the NL this year. I don’t know that I would want to go more than three years with him if I’m a GM. I believe he’ll ask for more. Again, we’ll see.

 

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25 minutes ago, Keepleyland2 said:

No. He's been trending down and its a year too early. Plus he'll have plenty of good teams after him. 

They will sign a first baseman or outfielder (if they give Stewart a 1st base gloves) to try to improve hte lineup. A couple of bullpen guys to flip. Then ride with the youngsters to see if any are part of the longetrm plan. You will see some callups as well throughout the year. 

I'd be suprised if they sign anything but a low level starting pitcher, if that. Its really a numbers game. So you have spots for Boyd and Turnbull obviously barring a trade. Zimmerman will take a spot but he sucks and he should be cut. Did Norris do enough to earn a spot? Plus you'll likely keep a spot freeish for the youngsters coming up and Fulmer is back at the all-star break. So this isn't the year to sign a big name pitcher baring shipping Boyd for another hitting prospect

It would be nice if the Tigers could make signing a decent free agent hitter happen, same way they signed Pudge after 2003. Yeah, I know Pudge backed himself into a corner and had to accept the offer, but still, they weren’t following up the worst season in team history by putting the same roster on the field. I’d like to see a similar move this winter, if only.

 

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Trivial trivia:

In 2007 UNC had commitments from Madison Bumgarner, Rick Porcello, and Matt Harvey. That would have been interesting. Only Harvey attended school rather than sign a pro contract.

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5 minutes ago, 1776 said:

Disclaimer: I’m a huge Bumgarner fan. I follow all his starts.

I believe he will prefer the NL over the AL. He likes to hit as much as he likes to pitch. I’d be surprised if he didn’t stay in the NL. 

Wainwright proved you can still pitch well into your 30’s. Bumgarner finished with the second most innings pitched in the NL this year. I don’t know that I would want to go more than three years with him if I’m a GM. I believe he’ll ask for more. Again, we’ll see.

 

Most pitchers are not like Verlander and Scherzer.  Most of the time they are like Zimmermann and Sanchez and breakdown after 30.  Stay away from Bumgarner. 

Sanchez was able to rebound, but you need the right pitching coach. Rick Anderson is not the right pitching coach.  

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11 minutes ago, 1776 said:

I believe he will prefer the NL over the AL. He likes to hit as much as he likes to pitch. I’d be surprised if he didn’t stay in the NL

I was thinking the same thing.  But ..maybe AA could guarantee he could bat for himself against sometimes  ..and maybe his hitting might help him win some ball games.

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1 minute ago, bobrob2004 said:

It really is amazing how 30 is the magic number for pitchers to decline. Look at Chris Sale this year. 

Chris Sale has been a fragile bean pole ever since he became a starter.  I'm surprised he did not break down before this year.  His history clearly showed it was just a matter of time.  Check out his career September stats.  Too much wear and tear on a 6'6" 170lb frame.

Nevertheless, I'd expect Sale to bounce back and be an elite pitcher for quite a few more years.

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Just now, Tigrrfan said:

Chris Sale has been a fragile bean pole ever since he became a starter.  I'm surprised he did not break down before this year.  His history clearly showed it was just a matter of time.  Check out his career September stats.  Too much wear and tear on a 6'6" 170lb frame.

Nevertheless, I'd expect Sale to bounce back and be an elite pitcher for quite a few more years.

I don't think he will be "elite" ever again. He may have a few more decent years of 3.70ish ERA, but that's about it. 

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6 minutes ago, bobrob2004 said:

It really is amazing how 30 is the magic number for pitchers to decline.

I don't buy into that theory.  I'll have to look it up sometime.

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Just now, bobrob2004 said:

I don't think he will be "elite" ever again. He may have a few more decent years of 3.70ish ERA, but that's about it. 

I remember when folks were saying that about JV.

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19 minutes ago, 1776 said:

Disclaimer: I’m a huge Bumgarner fan. I follow all his starts.

I believe he will prefer the NL over the AL. He likes to hit as much as he likes to pitch. I’d be surprised if he didn’t stay in the NL. 

Wainwright proved you can still pitch well into your 30’s. Bumgarner finished with the second most innings pitched in the NL this year. I don’t know that I would want to go more than three years with him if I’m a GM. I believe he’ll ask for more. Again, we’ll see.

 

Good call on the hitting thing.

Spitballing on free agents, would it make any sense to take a run at Jonathan Schoop? He’s only 28, has 20 home run and has a consistently decent glove. Three years might be too much but if he’ll take 2/20 and we can move Goodrum to short exclusively to start the 2020 season, might that help?

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1 minute ago, Tigrrfan said:

I don't buy into that theory.  I'll have to look it up sometime.

It's definitely around 30-32. I just found it funny that the 3 I decided to look up, Zimmermann, Sanchez, and Sale all fell right at age 30.  Sabathia is a good example of falling at 32.  Even if Bumgarner falls at 32, it would be a poor investment for the Tigers.  

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4 minutes ago, Tigrrfan said:

I remember when folks were saying that about JV.

And Verlander is an outlier. Bumgarner may be an outlier too. But the odds are against him. 

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8 minutes ago, bobrob2004 said:

It's definitely around 30-32. I just found it funny that the 3 I decided to look up, Zimmermann, Sanchez, and Sale all fell right at age 30.  Sabathia is a good example of falling at 32.  Even if Bumgarner falls at 32, it would be a poor investment for the Tigers.  

Performance data sugggests it’s earlier:

Aging_2.png

Explanation:

This is a two-axis chart, with the left axis the total number of pitchers of a certain age and the right their total fWAR. For example, between 1988 and 2013 there were a total of 537 seasons pitched by pitchers who were 22, and the total fWAR was 327.9. In this time span pitchers join major league rosters around age 23-24, peak around 26 with a sustained decrease in numbers from 27 on that gradually flattens out a bit around age 35.

Aging_3.png

More here:

https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2014/2/25/5437902/pitching-aging-curves

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23 minutes ago, bobrob2004 said:

It really is amazing how 30 is the magic number for pitchers to decline. Look at Chris Sale this year. 

I don't think there is a magic number for pitchers to decline.  They tend to get worse as they age of course, but I think there is a lot more variation in the career paths of pitchers than hitters.  

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10 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Performance data sugggests it’s earlier:

Aging_2.png

Explanation:

This is a two-axis chart, with the left axis the total number of pitchers of a certain age and the right their total fWAR. For example, between 1988 and 2013 there were a total of 537 seasons pitched by pitchers who were 22, and the total fWAR was 327.9. In this time span pitchers join major league rosters around age 23-24, peak around 26 with a sustained decrease in numbers from 27 on that gradually flattens out a bit around age 35.

Aging_3.png

More here:

https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2014/2/25/5437902/pitching-aging-curves

It would be interesting to see that data if just the elite pitchers were used.  How many Lincecums are out there compared to the Verlanders?

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I think this table basically contemplates this. With each age after 26 there are fewer pitchers even working, meaning more attrition. If we’re looking at elite pitchers we might see performance be fairly consistent through the 30s, but the point here is that fewer and fewer pitchers even make it to the advanced ages in the first place. Even pitchers in the elite category young are not a lock to get into the late 30s still pitching. So if you had to make a bet on any given pitcher in his late 20s or 30, bet on attrition.

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46 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Performance data sugggests it’s earlier:

Aging_2.png

Explanation:

This is a two-axis chart, with the left axis the total number of pitchers of a certain age and the right their total fWAR. For example, between 1988 and 2013 there were a total of 537 seasons pitched by pitchers who were 22, and the total fWAR was 327.9. In this time span pitchers join major league rosters around age 23-24, peak around 26 with a sustained decrease in numbers from 27 on that gradually flattens out a bit around age 35.

Aging_3.png

More here:

https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2014/2/25/5437902/pitching-aging-curves

Note that WAR tracks the number of pitchers so tightly. So the guys who do work past ~35 are guys who in general are performing at just as high a level on average as the guys at 28. It might be interesting to chart PA by age and WAR for hitters. I would make a small wager that with age, WAR per PA falls for more for hitters than WAR per 20 games started does for pitchers.

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6 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

Note that WAR tracks the number of pitchers so tightly. So the guys who do work past ~35 are guys who in general are performing at just as high a level on average as the guys at 28. It might be interesting to chart PA by age and WAR for hitters. I would make a small wager that with age, WAR per PA falls for more for hitters than WAR per 20 games started does for pitchers.

I’d bet on that too. Pitcher is important and you can’t bury a really bad pitcher in the bullpen. Once he gets bad at pitching he gets replaced, period. But a position player’s offensive deficiencies can be better buried in a batting order of nine guys, and other factors like better fielding, catching ability, or even exceptional clubhouse leadership can potentially keep him in the lineup even if his stick begins flagging.  There’s a limit, of course, but a position player gets more leash than a pitcher.

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10 minutes ago, chasfh said:

I’d bet on that too. Pitcher is important and you can’t bury a really bad pitcher in the bullpen. Once he gets bad at pitching he gets replaced, period. But a position player’s offensive deficiencies can be better buried in a batting order of nine guys, and other factors like better fielding, catching ability, or even exceptional clubhouse leadership can potentially keep him in the lineup even if his stick begins flagging.  There’s a limit, of course, but a position player gets more leash than a pitcher.

Plus, the simple nature of being a hitter leads to more failure than success and requires for more opportunities to let averages play themselves out. That probably buys players more like months rather than years though.

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I would suspect that the injuries hitters develop are also less likely to by career ending, or as major an event. Are they more likely than a pitcher to have an off year due to injury and come back strong.

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On 10/2/2019 at 2:41 PM, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

But what is the alternative?

They can't practically turn over much of the roster.

They can't trade because they don't have pieces that are desirable to other clubs,

they can't promote from within as a practical matter because the prospects will very likely produce even less than the poops they are playing now and likely will hurt their development, and

they won't sign pricy free agents because it isn't worth overpaying to get them to get to 60 or 65 wins.

 

They are painted into a corner.  We can lament that and lay out the reasons why that is, but the fact they will be in a corner when catchers and pitchers report in February has next to zero to do with what they do this offseason.

In other words, the 'concerning' element is what has already happened, as opposed to what is, or, more accurately, isn't done in the next four months.

The remarks from Bigglesworth are spot on.When I look at 2020 spring training, of the 25 spots (or is it 26 this Spring), I see maybe 4 or 5 spots of the 2020 roster  locked down, leaving us 20 true ballplayers short. When we traded  Verlander for the pieces we received, we had to hit on them for this rebuild to progress normally. That hasn't and will not happen.

We have Manning, Mize, Paraedes (sp), and Greene that will probably have some impact at the major league level someday, but not in 2020. The  position players in the system such as Daz Cameron, Cam Gibson, Parker Meadows, and Kody Clemens are just guys of no impact in any future.

It appears to me that for the most part, we  have been and are still very poor at identifying talent and developing it properly.

 I see about 107 losses for 2020 as the franchise still stands. Any reasonable improvement date is 2021 or 2022, with maybe a shot at .500 in 2023.

 

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3 hours ago, HeyAbbott said:

The  position players in the system such as Daz Cameron, Cam Gibson, Parker Meadows, and Kody Clemens are just guys of no impact in any future.

Cameron was pretty disappointing in Toledo last season, but he's still only 23 years old.

Was Gibson ever a real prospect?

Meadows is only 19 and has all of 504 professional PAs.

Clemens has only 2 professional seasons.  He's struggled against older competition and done well against younger competition.

Of the 4, I'd agree that Gibson will have no impact.  The others have time to develop still.  If by impact you mean perennial all star, I get its tough to see that at this point in time.  If they can be league average, that'd be fine and the Tigers are going to need those types of players on the roster.

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8 hours ago, chasfh said:

Spitballing on free agents, would it make any sense to take a run at Jonathan Schoop? He’s only 28, has 20 home run and has a consistently decent glove. Three years might be too much but if he’ll take 2/20 and we can move Goodrum to short exclusively to start the 2020 season, might that help?

They are probably best to acquire a veteran infielder and a veteran outfielder.  Schoop is probably the kind of free agent that the Tigers would kick the tires on.  He definitely would be a power upgrade over CastroH, but is it worth the price tag?  I guess if you consider Goodrum (and/or CastroH) move over to SS and buy some time for CastroW in Toledo to settle out his bat, it might not be so bad.

Good Lord, check out the MLB 162 game average BB/SO ratios for the two.  24/144 for Schoop.  14/138 for CastroH.

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9 hours ago, 1776 said:

Wainwright proved you can still pitch well into your 30’s. Bumgarner finished with the second most innings pitched in the NL this year. I don’t know that I would want to go more than three years with him if I’m a GM. I believe he’ll ask for more. Again, we’ll see.

 

I don't know.  He was good until age 33, but definitely regressed at age 34 and hasn't recovered since.  He had an Achilles tendon rupture that cost him most of that age 33 season.

That said, I think it'd be wise for the Tigers to have veteran starter or two around when the pitching prospects come up, but Boyd might end up being one of them.  Sure he's not going to peak like Wainwright or Bumgardner did, but I don't think they need a Cy Young caliber pitcher around nor do they need that type of contract which could end up hampering them like Zimmermann or Cabrera.

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