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IdahoBert

2019-2020 OFFSEASON DISCUSSION THREAD

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22 minutes ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

I will add it sounds like what Avila advocates, absent replacing everyone.

Exactly. Avila is hoping to teach the old dogs new tricks but he’s hardly the one to implement something like this because he’s an old dog too.  I just get the sense that this organization is knit together through familiarity and personality for the most part rather than acumen and that getting them to jump through new hoops is pretty much impossible. This team is ripe for a Stalinist purge. It’s not a very pleasant process. 

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11 minutes ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

I don't disagree with any of this particularly.

 

I will add it sounds like what Avila advocates, absent replacing everyone.

I don’t think Al has said anything about de-emphasizing old school scouting in favor of data science.  As much as he has talked about investing in analytics, he has to my reading pledged more allegiance to the role of scouting and while other organizations have dialed back on scouts, the Tigers have literally doubled down on them. Avila is also on record framing analytics as a tool to enhance eye scouting, which makes sense because of his own scouting background.  To that end, I can’t think of a single move they’ve made where anyone can say or has said, the analytics was a big factor in the move. Thus, I’m still skeptical of the organization’s commitment to it. 
 

On the other points I know we’ve made Some moves. We appear to be more active in international the past year or two although I’m iffy about how they’ve assessed the talent they’ve signed. The Roberto Campos story especially seems just a bit sketchy, for instance. But we won’t know how these signings will shake out for at least four or five years. And they did pick six position players at the top of the draft, five of them college, so yay for that. Although they’ve had little success drafting for depth, we should see relatively quickly how these shake out. If we get one solid everyday guy out of that 2-6 pick group, that’s a win. 
 

Let’s see how much they do with the big club this winter. I don’t expect them to throw big money at Rendon or Cole or anything like that, but let’s see if they can do better than scrap heap guys. 

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1 hour ago, Tenacious D said:

I actually think they have to see what they have with W. Castro, J. Jones,  Candelario, Stewart and Demeritte/Reyes getting regular AB's.

True, they should.  I would probably have Castro and Demeritte, along with Rogers, starting out the season in Toledo to get those ABs.

I know Candelario had a cruddy 2019, but 2020 is the final chance to prove something.  He probably shouldn't have a starting job based on performance, but I can understand having him at a corner to start off the season.

Stewart missed some time in 2019 and is out of options.  I don't think he'll amount to much in the long run, but I can understand giving him time in LF and at DH to vet it out.

I would be comfortable with starting Jones in CF and Reyes in RF.

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17 minutes ago, chasfh said:

I don’t think Al has said anything about de-emphasizing old school scouting in favor of data science.  As much as he has talked about investing in analytics, he has to my reading pledged more allegiance to the role of scouting and while other organizations have dialed back on scouts, the Tigers have literally doubled down on them. Avila is also on record framing analytics as a tool to enhance eye scouting, 

This is a good thing. Analytics doesn't replace traditional scouting, and it is, and always has been a tool to enhance scouting. It's just gotten a lot more sophisticated.

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28 minutes ago, Casimir said:

True, they should.  I would probably have Castro and Demeritte, along with Rogers, starting out the season in Toledo to get those ABs.

I know Candelario had a cruddy 2019, but 2020 is the final chance to prove something.  He probably shouldn't have a starting job based on performance, but I can understand having him at a corner to start off the season.

Stewart missed some time in 2019 and is out of options.  I don't think he'll amount to much in the long run, but I can understand giving him time in LF and at DH to vet it out.

I would be comfortable with starting Jones in CF and Reyes in RF.

Stewart is already out of options?  He's only played one year in the majors, and was sent down on an injury rehab.  I guess I don't know the rules on how that works.

I would play Demeritte in RF over Reyes.  Demeritte profiles to be a higher OPS player, given his OBP and power potential.  Reyes is an empty .300 hitter.

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If they commit to Stewart in LF it proves they just don't get it. He can not hit enough homers to make up for his terrible defense and ZERO arm. You can't preach about "taking the extra base" and then put a liability in the OF who allows runners going first to third on balls hit to leftfield, can't throw out a runner from just past the infield dirt, can't charge a ground ball, and takes terrible routes to fly balls. We forced this with Castellanos and he could hit much better.  He is a DH.  Play Reyes in Left until a better option presents itself. How can we develop a pitching staff with terrible defense behind them ? 

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5 hours ago, Tenacious D said:

Going into next season, I think this is the team:

C Greiner/Hicks

1B: TBD/Candelario

2B: Goodrum

SS: W. Castro/Mercer (I think they'll resign him for half his salary--good guy to have in reserve if Castro implodes)

3B: Candelario/Lugo 

LF: Stewart

CF: Jones

RF: Demeritte/Reyes

DH: Cabrera

UT: H. Castro

SP: Boyd/Norris/Turnbull/Zimmerman/TBD

BP: Farmer/Jiminez/Alexander/Ramirez/TBD/TBD

I see them acquiring a 1B/DH bat to platoon with Cabrera. Think they'll also bring in two starting pitchers of the Tyson Ross-ilk, so they don't have to rush anyone.  Also, an arm or two for the pen.

I don't see any trades of interest/signficance taking place--our cupboard is bare.  

The highlight of our offseason will be the Rule V parties that each of us will meticulously plan.

 

I think this is exactly what Avila and Illitch will do. Which is concerning. Why does an experienced GM need ANOTHER year of looking at the same players, providing the same results, to decide who can play ? Does it really take that long? 

Why cant you just make some decisions. Say players that are young for the league or can play solid defense and have an idea of the strike zone as your guide. So right away you can rule out Lugo, Dixon, RodRod, Stewart (no position), Greiner, and who really thinks Demeriite will amount to much ?

If we play Miggy at 1B for say 40 games and he sits for 40 then keep Stewart as a platoon DH and hope to develop his bat. Keep him off the grass. Play Goodrum at 2nd and Castro at SS, Jones in center and Reyes in LF, maybe Demerite as 4th outfielder, Candelerio at 3B because he can take a walk and has had success at the MLB level. Then sign someone for RF with power like Puig whose still youngish. Maybe sign an Absubral Cabbera type who can take a walk and play the infield, get a veteran catcher to help the pitchers. 

Don't just play the same cast. isn't that the definition of insanity ? Doing the same thing over and over and hoping for a different result ?

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1 hour ago, chasfh said:

I don’t think Al has said anything about de-emphasizing old school scouting in favor of data science.  As much as he has talked about investing in analytics, he has to my reading pledged more allegiance to the role of scouting and while other organizations have dialed back on scouts, the Tigers have literally doubled down on them. Avila is also on record framing analytics as a tool to enhance eye scouting, which makes sense because of his own scouting background.  To that end, I can’t think of a single move they’ve made where anyone can say or has said, the analytics was a big factor in the move. Thus, I’m still skeptical of the organization’s commitment to it. 
 

If other organizations have dialed back on scouting in favor of analytics what does that look like and how does it work?  Do they find a prospective player and run a statistical analysis and survey body mechanics looking for strong and weak points and how to accelerate development? Instead of just eyeballing him?  

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1 hour ago, chasfh said:

Let’s see how much they do with the big club this winter. I don’t expect them to throw big money at Rendon or Cole or anything like that, but let’s see if they can do better than scrap heap guys. 

Specific to this point, you commented in your earlier post that there isn't a lot that can be done with the club next year (absent buying every FA, but that isn't practical or pragmatic or realizable even), and I agree.

Basically hope they get a little luckier and find a couple of Mike Fiers' rather than Josh Harrisons, but I don't know how much a GM or his/her staff can accurately predict such a thing.

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9 minutes ago, socaltiger said:

I think this is exactly what Avila and Illitch will do. Which is concerning. Why does an experienced GM need ANOTHER year of looking at the same players, providing the same results, to decide who can play ? Does it really take that long? 

But what is the alternative?

They can't practically turn over much of the roster.

They can't trade because they don't have pieces that are desirable to other clubs,

they can't promote from within as a practical matter because the prospects will very likely produce even less than the poops they are playing now and likely will hurt their development, and

they won't sign pricy free agents because it isn't worth overpaying to get them to get to 60 or 65 wins.

 

They are painted into a corner.  We can lament that and lay out the reasons why that is, but the fact they will be in a corner when catchers and pitchers report in February has next to zero to do with what they do this offseason.

In other words, the 'concerning' element is what has already happened, as opposed to what is, or, more accurately, isn't done in the next four months.

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1 minute ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

But what is the alternative?

They can't practically turn over much of the roster.

They can't trade because they don't have pieces that are desirable to other clubs,

they can't promote from within as a practical matter because the prospects will very likely produce even less and they aren't ready,

they won't sign pricy free agents because it isn't worth overpaying to get to 60 wins.

 

They are painted into a corner.  We can lament that and lay out the reasons why that is, but the fact they will be in a corner when catchers and pitchers report has next to zero to do with what they do this offseason.

In other words, the 'concerning' element is what has already happened, as opposed to what is, or, more accurately, isn't done in the next four months.

They can make hard decisions on the current cast of players and fill the other spots with medium priced free agents or trades to both develop the young players that have "potential" while putting a respectable product on the field. They can make sure competent fielders are at each position so the pitchers can develop without the added burden of carrying the defense on their backs. They have options. They don't have to overpay  or accept being terrible. It's a sport they could try to compete. 

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52 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

Stewart is already out of options?  He's only played one year in the majors, and was sent down on an injury rehab.  I guess I don't know the rules on how that works.

I would play Demeritte in RF over Reyes.  Demeritte profiles to be a higher OPS player, given his OBP and power potential.  Reyes is an empty .300 hitter.

I am pretty sure Stewart is out of options.  I think he was out heading into 2019.

Of Demeritte and Reyes, Reyes is the one actually getting on base.  Reyes has an OPS+ of 100 while Demeritte is at 65.  So I'd go with the guy getting on base right now in Detroit and let the other guy work on things in Toledo to start out.  Both can play every day under that scenario.  Maybe Demeritte has a better future than Reyes, but he struggled quite a bit.  To Demeritte's credit, he did have a better BB/PA and SO/PA than Reyes in Detroit.

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Those good folks in Hong Kong wouldn’t put up with this sh!t.

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If given the choice between Demeritte or Reyes, I'd guess Demeritte has a better offensive season next season than Reyes.

You use Reyes if you value his d and baserunning.

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1 minute ago, 1776 said:

Those good folks in Hong Kong wouldn’t put up with this sh!t.

They will be **** next year whether we put up with it or not.  They have no good moves to make.

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3 minutes ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

They will be **** next year whether we put up with it or not.  They have no good moves to make.

Alternately, if you want to broom out Avila (something I think is very defensible / reasonable), you should want to broom him and his office out now, rather than when he runs out his crappy line-up on opening day, because there really isn't anything of substance he (or anyone else, for that matter) can do this offseason to make the 2020/21 Tigers roster significantly better.

Not unless some other GM loses his collective mind and gifts the Tigers some sweetheart trade.

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15 minutes ago, Casimir said:

I'd still entertain the thought of having Stewart try out 1B.

I don't know why they don't do this either.  It would also eliminate concern that he does not have a good arm.  I wonder if he refuses or if there is something we don't know (like he has terrible footwork) that is preventing it

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27 minutes ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

They will be **** next year whether we put up with it or not.  They have no good moves to make.

Totally agree. They’re in over their heads in my opinion. Unless there are real changes in the FO there won’t be anything to get excited about anytime soon. 

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I just woke up from an afternoon nap and was disoriented enough to check my phone to see when the game was on tonight. What a nightmare. 

The idea of having to live through another season like last year is hellish to contemplate. I’m starting to think that next season is going to be like 2019 without the surprising start. I think it’s completely possible they could be worse if they stand pat without existing players getting any better.  

They’re not even attempting to compete.  And I don’t care if they have limited options. They still need to try and from what I can see they’re not going to try. 

 

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any corrections they try and make in player development won't really be helpful for 3-4 years. And they are going to be terrible next year no matter what and no amount of spending is going to fix it. They are just so much farther away than 'trying to spend in 2021' and getting a new architect might save them from going into the dark ages again.

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3 hours ago, IdahoBert said:

Exactly. Avila is hoping to teach the old dogs new tricks but he’s hardly the one to implement something like this because he’s an old dog too.  I just get the sense that this organization is knit together through familiarity and personality for the most part rather than acumen and that getting them to jump through new hoops is pretty much impossible. This team is ripe for a Stalinist purge. It’s not a very pleasant process. 

OTOH - a late life convert often becomes the most ardent disciple

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