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9/8 Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals

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I struggle to come up with a situation where I take 4th and 1.

Maybe just enough time for two plays and a first down isn't particularly valuable to the opposition, so they won't waste a play to get a yard?

I think it would require a pretty specific set of circumstances.

Side note, could a team be 4th and 1 from their own 5?

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If I knew there was even a chance of them going for it I would take the penalty.  I don't remember the exact situation of the play in question but I'm assuming if it was in the 2nd half Arizona was getting near desperation mode so they would almost have surely went for it.   

If it was the first drive of the game and the team was backed up I would probably decline since in those situations teams almost always punt on 4th down regardless of the distance but in this situation I'd definitely take the penalty.  

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Another way to think about it is how likely is it the team is going to get either more than 13 yards on that 3rd down or the Lions commit a penalty that grants a first down?  Anything 13 yards or less on 3rd down puts you at a net neutral or better position than 4th and 1.

And the penalty thing is tough because the Lions could also commit a penalty on 4th and 1 as well.

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Regardless, my overall point is I don't think it was anything approaching bad coaching to accept a penalty to force a 3rd and 14 rather than reject it for a 4th and 1. 

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Anytime a team is in their own territory mainly from their own 40 and back, you'd have to take the 4th and 1 unless it's a last minute situation where yardage is more important than downs. Most teams will just punt on the 4th and 1 from their own territory, don't take the chance of moving it back to a 3rd down. On the other side of the 50, you'd be best served to take the 3rd and 14.

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Of course now it doesn’t go all virus on me.  I could not access the game thread during the game without being redirected to that stupid “you won a gift card website.”   I call collusion.  

As for the game   Patrica sucks.   Prevent after dominating all game cost the lions   The ridiculous timeout and just general lack of awareness from the coaching staff.   And why the **** is KJ not getting more action?   

Lions have good players this year, but Patricia is worse than Caldwell.   

 

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Could be worse I guess.  Ron Rivera could be our head coach.  4th and inches with the game on the line and he goes with a direct snap to the RB who has been held in check all game.  There sire is a lot of stupidity in the NFL.

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1 hour ago, sagnam said:

Could be worse I guess.  Ron Rivera could be our head coach.  4th and inches with the game on the line and he goes with a direct snap to the RB who has been held in check all game.  There sire is a lot of stupidity in the NFL.

I thought that was all on McCaffery.  It was an easy touchdown had he cut it inside.  Not sure what he was thinking trying to beat the guy to the corner.

 

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6 hours ago, Hongbit said:

I thought that was all on McCaffery.  It was an easy touchdown had he cut it inside.  Not sure what he was thinking trying to beat the guy to the corner.

 

I don’t know.  I keep watching that clip and I can’t see an opportunity unless he committed immediately to running up the middle, which wasn’t the design. The big hole in the middle of the line isn’t blocked open but instead opened up when the DL peels off to chase the play fake after McCaffery is well past.  Once he’s stretched out Hargreaves is unblocked and Barrett is trailing him taking away the cutback.

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Cam Newtown was pretty awful that game. Just think, about 4 years ago most people would have taken Luck and Newton over Stafford.

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On 9/11/2019 at 7:34 PM, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

 

Side note, could a team be 4th and 1 from their own 5?

Normally I'd say no... but when it comes to the Lions and obscure NFL rules... I wouldn't put it past them to get themselves into a situation like that.

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1 hour ago, Motown Bombers said:

Cam Newtown was pretty awful that game. Just think, about 4 years ago most people would have taken Luck and Newton over Stafford.

I think Newton has been horribly overrated outside of the one outlier MVP type season (although how can we forget him shredding the Lions to pieces last year even though the Lions won) but I think he's playing injured. He just seems way off.

Luck has always been superior to Stafford, don't think that's a controversial opinion.

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22 minutes ago, NYLion said:

I think Newton has been horribly overrated outside of the one outlier MVP type season (although how can we forget him shredding the Lions to pieces last year even though the Lions won) but I think he's playing injured. He just seems way off.

Luck has always been superior to Stafford, don't think that's a controversial opinion.

No but Luck is out of the league and Stafford is still going strong. Grass isn't always greener. I'm not sure Luck is that much superior. They both have similar QB ratings and Stafford has at least been able to actually play. Newton for most his career has been a sub 60% passer. The more he becomes a pocket passer, the more his inaccuracy will hurt him.

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The Chargers are missing half their team either due to injury or in the case of Gordon, a hold out. If they can't beat a Chargers team with no Russell Okung, Hunter Henry, Derwin James and Melvin Gordon plus Phillip Rivers with a limp arm, then this team is in a whole lot of trouble. They should be able to win this game, but if they don't, people will be jumping from the ship left and right and the season will be effectively over in-terms of making the playoffs.

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Interesting stat. Matthew Stafford had the 3rd lowest expected completion percentage in week 1. He outperformed his expected completion percentage by 2.1%. Having that low of an expected completion percentage could be a result of all the pressure. It also factors in things like WR separation. The QB with the lowest expected completion percentage? Kyler Murray. He underperformed by only 0.1%. The Lions defense played well despite giving up the lead. The secondary also graded well by PFF and Tracy Walker graded as the highest Lions defensive player. He continued his play from last year. Nobody is talking about Walker after that game but he might just be a good one. 

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nobody is talking about the lions defense because they got torched by a rookie qb in his first game throwing to 65 year old larry fitzgerald and a bunch of nobodies.  that horrible 4th quarter is what is left in everyone's mind and not the pretty good defense they played for the first three.

decker being injured or incompetent was a huge detriment against 40 year old terrell suggs, what's it going to be against the chargers?

the receivers couldnt get separation last year either.  it makes stafford have to be super humanly good.  fortunately he is capable of that.

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“Through the first three quarters, the rookie quarterback completed only 9-of-25 passes for 70 yards and an interception. After that, he was 20-of-29 for 238 yards and two touchdowns.”

 

Lions got torched in the 4th quarter and OT.

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1 hour ago, sagnam said:

“Through the first three quarters, the rookie quarterback completed only 9-of-25 passes for 70 yards and an interception. After that, he was 20-of-29 for 238 yards and two touchdowns.”

 

Lions got torched in the 4th quarter and OT.

thats what i meant.  which im sure mb knew but decided to be all "mb" about it anyway.  :)

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Just now, Buddha said:

thats what i meant.  which im sure mb knew but decided to be all "mb" about it anyway.  :)

I knew that's what you meant, but it doesn't matter to be if you have one hot streak in one quarter. Overall, Murray was average at best. 

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