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Tigers Organization Hitting Approach

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On 9/15/2019 at 4:16 PM, LooseGoose said:

Could be true.   We'll see next year.  Will he take a step forward like Reyes or have we seen what he is?

Reyes took a step forward?  *Checks baseball-reference.  

Well, I'll be damned.  I've been away from baseball too long.

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On 9/18/2019 at 12:39 PM, bobrob2004 said:

Reyes took a step forward?  *Checks baseball-reference.  

Well, I'll be damned.  I've been away from baseball too long.

"Step forward" might be a little generous for Reyes given that his .377 BABIP is eighth highest of anyone with 250+ plate trips plus, well, he's come to the plate only 255 times, which is less than half a season for a starter. Dial his BABIP back to league average of .298, and his slash line would look more like .234/.269/.336.

Not to mention—OK, fine, to mention—that he can't take a walk and can't hit any homers in the craziest home run environment ever. What he's got in spades is speed, and his kind of speed is dime a dozen at the professional level.

I know Reyes is only 24, but I'm betting on regression for him next year.

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His xBA is only .272 and his xWoba is 40 points less than his actual so I'm betting on a regression too.

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the counter point on Reyes is that his line drive rate is over 25%, his K rate is under 20%, his soft contact is under 15% and his hard hit rate is 40%. His BaBIP is certainly unsustainable, but OTOH his success this season is not all BaBIP luck either. The other significant point with Victor is that a lot of guys start out hot in the majors and still have good average numbers after 250 PA but if you look at their trend, they are already starting to fall off as pitchers begin to exploit their weaknesses. Maybe the most hopeful sign with Reyes is that he still trending up even as the season is ending - having added 25 pt to his OPS so far this Sept.

So while I wouldn't argue that he still has to keep improving to hold down an MLB starting job and has things he has to work on (like walking more), I would also say that if he can maintain a rate of improvement half of what he did last last year to this, he certainly has as good a shot to play regularly  in the majors as any other OF in the system beside Greene - though granted that may not saying all that much!

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