Jump to content

Sign in to follow this  
christinagi

Verlander v Greinke trade value

Recommended Posts

Is it just me, or did Arizona get a better haul for Greinke than we did for Verlander? On the surface it appears the Diamondbacks got more and better prospects for Greinke even though Greinke is 2 years older than JV was at the time of the trade and Houston in picking about $4M more a season for Greinke than they did for JV. If I was JV, I'd be insulted. Did AA get fleeced?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, christinagi said:

Did AA get fleeced?

Does a Bull Sh it?

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Arizona didn't get close to the haul we got, maybe in hindsight but not at the time of the trade.  Perez was a top 30 prospect in all of baseball, Cameron was a top 75 prospect who had/has more potential than anything AZ got and Rogers was hailed as the best defensive catcher in the minors and a Fringe top 100 guy.

Az got a DH,  a guy who just blew out his elbow and a pitcher with a 5+ era in the minors.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

AA is not what I would call a shrewd dealer.  He's somewhere between Randy Smith and Dombrowski, and he's probably leaning more towards Smith.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
41 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said:

Arizona didn't get close to the haul we got, maybe in hindsight but not at the time of the trade.  Perez was a top 30 prospect in all of baseball, Cameron was a top 75 prospect who had/has more potential than anything AZ got and Rogers was hailed as the best defensive catcher in the minors and a Fringe top 100 guy.

Az got a DH,  a guy who just blew out his elbow and a pitcher with a 5+ era in the minors.

This. Anyone that things Arizona got close is not paying attention. Beer is the top rated guy in the whole deal and he is #100 if he makes anyone's top list.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Overall, I think AA has done reasonably -> pretty well in trades.

Closer to DD than Smith at least.

DD generated more trade value than any GM over the last 20 years, and I don't think it is close, though I haven't looked recently.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I pretty much hate all the players that AA got in return in all of the trades.

But you can only get what you can get.  I'm not sure if the other teams were willing to trade any minor leaguers of value to the Tigers.

The JD trade...I think that is his low point for sure.  

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't know whether DD was just lucky or if he just knew what prospects to trade and what ones to hold onto cause for the most part the prospects he traded away never amounted to much which makes his deals look brilliant when it's all said and done.

With that said even if he did get lucky I admire the fact that he wasn't/isn't afraid to trade prospects, I think too many GMs especially nowadays are too afraid to trade prospects because they don't want to face the repercussions if those prospects turn out to be stars, I don't think DD is afraid of that.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, christinagi said:

If I was JV, I'd be insulted. 

Why should JV be insulted? He should be happy his team will have a better chance to go deeper in the playoffs. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Between making hundreds of millions of dollars, being married to Kate Upton, and winning the World Series... I don't think Verlander gives a ****. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, Walewander said:

Between making hundreds of millions of dollars, being married to Kate Upton, and winning the World Series... I don't think Verlander gives a ****. 

Not only that...but he's a team player. He cares about the team first. Of course, all of the things you mentioned may matter too.   : )

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, RandyMarsh said:

Arizona didn't get close to the haul we got, maybe in hindsight but not at the time of the trade.  Perez was a top 30 prospect in all of baseball, Cameron was a top 75 prospect who had/has more potential than anything AZ got and Rogers was hailed as the best defensive catcher in the minors and a Fringe top 100 guy.

Az got a DH,  a guy who just blew out his elbow and a pitcher with a 5+ era in the minors.

I don't remember Perez being a top 30 prospect. He was in the top 100 but not top 30. Cameron and Rogers were not in the top 100.

But yeah, we got more than AZ.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Neither have been top 100 since. Just sayin'.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The trading landscape has totally changed just in the last 3 years. GM's GRIP their "prospects" . Almost all of them. The Dodgers have 6 consecutive division tiles, a stacked team, big budget and have lost the last 2 World Series to teams that added at the deadline and still refused to trade their top four "prospects".

So how is Avilia going to hit a home run in that environment ?

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I agree. The JV and Nick trades completed with seconds to go. It's not like Al turned down better offers.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, chasfh said:

Neither have been top 100 since. Just sayin'.

That's not the point folks are making. At the time of the trades Detroit got more value than Arizona. Even with top prospects there are no certainties. Injuries happen. Struggles against major league competition. No way of knowing how the Arizona haul pans out.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 hours ago, christinagi said:

Is it just me, or did Arizona get a better haul for Greinke than we did for Verlander? On the surface it appears the Diamondbacks got more and better prospects for Greinke even though Greinke is 2 years older than JV was at the time of the trade and Houston in picking about $4M more a season for Greinke than they did for JV. If I was JV, I'd be insulted. Did AA get fleeced?

Obviously time will tell, I've read articles praising the Greinke haul and I've seen articles panning the prospects - implying they've peaked or have low ceilings.  We'll know in 5 years which teams did better.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, leflore said:

That's not the point folks are making. At the time of the trades Detroit got more value than Arizona. Even with top prospects there are no certainties. Injuries happen. Struggles against major league competition. No way of knowing how the Arizona haul pans out.

Did we?

In April 2017 Fangraphs had:

  • Perez at #3 in the Astros system, 50 future value
  • Cameron at #10, 45 FV
  • Rogers at #20, 40 FV.

In March 2019, Fangraphs had 

  • Martin at#3 in the Astros system, 50 future value
  • Bukauskas at #4, 50 FV
  • Beer at #18, 40 FV;
  • Rojas unranked.

So on talent, Fangraphs believes Astros got more value, at least at the top end, and at least coming into each season. If you count the salary going over with the star (which I care way less about then the money people working in the game), then it's more of an even trade

I know we like to put a lot of stock in the gospel of prospect rankings, myself as much as anyone, but we all also know at the end they are an imperfect measure of eventual value. Sure, things happen like injuries, performance changes and whatnot, but rankings also tend to have varying degrees of subjectivity, and you can tell that just from RatkoVarda's post: Baseball America has Perez moving up from #54 to #35 going into 2018, and MLB has Perez dropping from #39 to #78 at the same time. So who knows what to believe when we see something like that. I tend to put more stock in what Fangraphs puts out there since I believe they use a greater mix of analytics versus eyeball (although I'm pretty sure eyeball is still a part of it for them).

One thing I think we can agree on: it's going to take another five or ten years or so when the dust settles to know how either team ends up doing on these trades.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Not fair to compare their pre season rankings when the prospects have gone backwards.

Bouskakas has struggled all year and Martin didn't exactly light it up when he got called up then he blew out his elbow.  Beer has been fine but he is still bat only and those guys only provide so much value. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said:

Not fair to compare their pre season rankings when the prospects have gone backwards.

Bouskakas has struggled all year and Martin didn't exactly light it up when he got called up then he blew out his elbow.  Beer has been fine but he is still bat only and those guys only provide so much value. 

I tried to find midsession rankings but couldn't. Preseason was the best I could find. 

My point is that a lot of the return analysis is subjective anyway, so the contention that our return clearly beat Arizona’s is based on an imperfect measure. Only five to ten years passing will reveal who if either did better. Already the first two years after the Verlander trade is showing that the prospects we got are performing in the reverse order of what we thought we were getting, at least so far. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, chasfh said:

Only five to ten years passing will reveal who if either did better. 

I would not put any value upon any player past his age 27 season ..because they all should reach and clearly display their maximum potential by then.  Moreover, ..highly doubt even half the players involved in the JV and the ZG trades will still be with their 'traded-to' teams after 2024 (5 years from now.)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 hours ago, Sports_Freak said:

Why should JV be insulted? He should be happy his team will have a better chance to go deeper in the playoffs. 

If the consideration paid for an older, more expensive Greinke was greater than that paid for JV, the subtext is that Houston values Greinke more than JV. The JV I'm aware of would notice and be rankled. Maybe not publicly, but he is so competitive I think it must have crossed his mind.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, christinagi said:

If the consideration paid for an older, more expensive Greinke was greater than that paid for JV, the subtext is that Houston values Greinke more than JV. The JV I'm aware of would notice and be rankled.

what?  I seriously doubt that.  Please provide any evidence where that is suggested.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...