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2020 MLB Draft

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8 hours ago, RandyMarsh said:

Not really sure what type of impact this is gonna have positively or negatively for the Tigers but atleast as of now it looks like there is gonna be a draft this year. 

With just 5 rounds, the Tigers would not have gotten Tarik Skubal.

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Well... the flip side is, it has to make everyone else a Free Agent, or at least college seniors. How else would you treat college seniors who have just graduated?

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so the tigers, who would have the first pick in every round, get screwed.

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it would top off a perfect 2020 foe detroit sports that baseball shortens its draft and the tigers get ******, the pistons - who were dropping into the top 3 - end up 5th, the nhl holds a league wide lottery cause nobody made the playoffs and the wings get ****** out of lafreniere, and the lions are the lions.

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I believe the idea of Manfred's to reduce the draft and eliminate minor league teams is misguided and shortsighted. Kids all over the world work their butts off for a shot to play pro ball. Anything that reduces opportunities for them is antithetical to growing the game. It doesn't matter if they wash out in rookie ball, they were pros. The cost isn't that great and the pride and love for the game that reverberates out into communities from that opportunity is priceless.

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26 minutes ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

Devil's advocate argument.

I don't believe colleges can fill the developmental role for baseball like they do for football and basketball. Both the latter two sports struggle to develop talent that isn't quite ready for the bigs, and can baseball afford to give up ANY competitive advantage to other sports?

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1 hour ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

Football and basketball doesn't require extensive minor league systems or drafts lasting tens of rounds.

And the discussion wasn't filling major league rosters, it was growing the sport internationally, with the opportunity to turn pro being a driver.

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the flip side is that thousands of their family, friends and classmates and millions in the public become fans of thousands of college football and basketball players before those players ever play a pro game, while college *and* most minor league baseball players toil in comparative obscurity. In the case of football you can even argue that it was the college game that originally created the market (and the initial player pool) for the pro game. So maybe the problem for MLB is not the size of it's feeder system but more that the competitive stakes and public interest in theirs are both too low.

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also good FG article here touching on macro and micro issues

looks like MLB is using smaller draft to further justify MiLB contraction.

also:

An agent I spoke with yesterday thinks MLB will continue to operate in ways that funnel talent toward NCAA baseball. It’s a free source of player development and provides more reliable data to teams, which they can lean on as a means of evaluation, which, in turn, also allows them to shrink scouting departments to further cut costs.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/in-the-time-of-covid-19-sweeping-changes-are-made-to-the-amateur-draft/

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23 minutes ago, RatkoVarda said:

also good FG article here touching on macro and micro issues

looks like MLB is using smaller draft to further justify MiLB contraction.

also:

An agent I spoke with yesterday thinks MLB will continue to operate in ways that funnel talent toward NCAA baseball. It’s a free source of player development and provides more reliable data to teams, which they can lean on as a means of evaluation, which, in turn, also allows them to shrink scouting departments to further cut costs.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/in-the-time-of-covid-19-sweeping-changes-are-made-to-the-amateur-draft/

There is an irreducible problem trying to turn NCAA baseball into a better feeder system, which is that it shows no promise of ever being a significant revenue sport and will never have major attendance in most of the country since most students have left campus before most of the games are played, and add to that that for northern schools, almost no games are played on campus while students are there. No local core interest pretty much means no TV interest. No revenue means NCAA baseball still won't get the level of resource commitment to HS talent scouting and coaching quality you get in BB and FB.

The other long term result will probably a decrease in the number of home grown players in US baseball. The trend toward MLB becoming a league of Latin American ex-pats will continue.

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FWIW, I believe 5 rounds is the worst case scenario, if they have to scrap the season. If there is a reasonable minor league season, I hope there will be many more rounds.

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the other structural problem that I don't see any obvious answer to is that the MLB couldn't live with a a more successful domestic development system even if they could create it. NCAA FB and BB have high revenue potential because they do not have to consistently compete for the same TV viewer at the same time as their pro games because neither the pros nor the NCAA play everyday. In basketball the pros get underway before the NCAA and March madness conveniently ends before the NBA playoffs. Obviously in FB pros and colleges don't run into each other at all because there are so few games. Any baseball feeder system that generated the revenue to be lavish in its development spending needs TV revenue, but they could only get it going up against the MLB itself every night for viewers, so it isn't going to ever happen. I think unless they are willing to offshore the effort completely to Latin American leagues, MLB will never have a 1st rate domestic feeder system unless they are willing to pay for it themselves, and apparently they are not.

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On 3/19/2020 at 12:01 PM, Deleterious said:

Free stuff.

 

Do the rest of us get our memberships extended for 90 days? Or are we paying for the freeloaders?

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9 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Do the rest of us get our memberships extended for 90 days? Or are we paying for the freeloaders?

They just billed be me the other day so I think we're still getting charged.

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1 minute ago, Gehringer_2 said:

the other structural problem that I don't see any obvious answer to is that the MLB couldn't live with a a more successful domestic development system even if they could create it. NCAA FB and BB have high revenue potential because they do not have to consistently compete for the same TV viewer at the same time as their pro games because neither the pros nor the NCAA play everyday. In basketball the pros get underway before the NCAA and March madness conveniently ends before the NBA playoffs. Obviously in FB pros and colleges don't run into each other at all because there are so few games. Any baseball feeder system that generated the revenue to be lavish in its development spending needs TV revenue, but they could only get it going up against the MLB itself for viewers, so it isn't going to ever happen.

I think MLB sees the current minor league system as inefficient and they are looking to cut expenses.

seems like a valid argument can be made that technology, physical training, coaching, nutrition and facilities resources are better spent concentrated on fewer players who actually have a reasonable shot at the Majors.

having the NCAA assist MLB (basically for free) in filtering out the duds makes business sense

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9 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Do the rest of us get our memberships extended for 90 days? Or are we paying for the freeloaders?

It's more of a promotion for new subscribers, they commence billing you at the end of 90 days.

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1 minute ago, RatkoVarda said:

I think MLB sees the current minor league system as inefficient and they are looking to cut expenses.

seems like a valid argument can be made that technology, physical training, coaching, nutrition and facilities resources are better spent concentrated on fewer players who actually have a reasonable shot at the Majors.

having the NCAA assist MLB (basically for free) in filtering out the duds makes business sense

And I think this is misguided and shortsighted.

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4 minutes ago, RatkoVarda said:

I think MLB sees the current minor league system as inefficient and they are looking to cut expenses.

seems like a valid argument can be made that technology, physical training, coaching, nutrition and facilities resources are better spent concentrated on fewer players who actually have a reasonable shot at the Majors.

having the NCAA assist MLB (basically for free) in filtering out the duds makes business sense

It may be true that an MLB team doesn't need 10 MILB affiliates, but it's also true that they are delusional if they think the NCAA can ever be for baseball near to what it is for FB or BB.

It is also true, as Williams said, that hitting in the major leagues is the hardest thing to do in all of sport. Maybe you need to put a lot of people into the mill at the bottom end to insure any emerge at the the other. Or I guess the question is: are baseball players born or made. If it's the former, no matter how much effort you lavish on a smaller number of players, the quality of play in the majors will still fall.

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So, the Tigers still get 6 picks in the first 5 rounds.  There appears to be no incentive for players in those rounds not to sign, since the 2021 system will be the same as 2020.  Slot money will be the same as 2019 both years, just deferred.

This is true whether the owners decide to do a 5 round or a 10 round draft.

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26 minutes ago, apabruce said:

There appears to be no incentive for players in those rounds not to sign, since the 2021 system will be the same as 2020.

The Fangraphs article points out that with the deferral of bonus money, high school players have less incentive to sign out of high school, since their signing bonus in 2023 when they are juniors will be similar in either case.

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Using 2019 slot values, pick 1=8,415,300

38=1,952,300
63=1,076,300
74=844,200
102=571,400
132=426,600

This is taking just the slot value from the 2019 draft.  There were more teams picking in 2019, due to the vagaries of compensation picks and Houston's forfeitures.  I"m not sure how the math works for that.

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