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Deleterious

2019 Michigan Football

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48 minutes ago, Shelton said:

This is not a good take. 
 

John Cooper coached Ohio state for 12 years, and in his final two years was 6-6 and 8-4. And he lost to Michigan in 93, 95, 96, and 97 when ranked as a top 5 team, and only in 97 was Michigan ranked higher in those games. To the extent he was fired for not being able to beat Michigan, you have to take into account the number of times he lost to a Michigan team that was a clear tier below them. 
 

These losses to OSU under Harbaugh are lacking the same context. 

How much did the context matter when Cooper was fired by Ohio? Was their AD  looking at all those factors or was it his 2-10-1 overall record and general inability to beat Michigan that got him fired? 

It seems pretty simple to me, if Harbaugh can't beat Ohio, that should be a big part of the reason he is fired. If Ohio clearly has more talent than Harbaugh's team than that is the coaches problem. That means he's being out recruited and that he/the university aren't willing to turn over every stone like an Urban Meyer, Nick Saban, Kirby Smart and their universities would be willing to do. And in addition to firing Harbaugh, that mentality has to change as well.

Maybe PJ Fleck, Luke Fickell, Matt Ruhle, Matt Campbell, Chris Petersen, whoever won't be able to get it done against Ohio. Maybe, but we already know Harbaugh cannot.

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9 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

How much did the context matter when Cooper was fired by Ohio? Was their AD  looking at all those factors or was it his 2-10-1 overall record and general inability to beat Michigan that got him fired? 

It seems pretty simple to me, if Harbaugh can't beat Ohio, that should be a big part of the reason he is fired. If Ohio clearly has more talent than Harbaugh's team than that is the coaches problem. That means he's being out recruited and that he/the university aren't willing to turn over every stone like an Urban Meyer, Nick Saban, Kirby Smart and their universities would be willing to do. And in addition to firing Harbaugh, that mentality has to change as well.

Maybe PJ Fleck, Luke Fickell, Matt Ruhle, Matt Campbell, Chris Petersen, whoever won't be able to get it done against Ohio. Maybe, but we already know Harbaugh cannot.

As a Buckeye fan, from my memory It was the combination of not being able to beat Michigan, losing most bowl games, and the final 2 seasons being mediocre that led to Cooper's firing.  Had he won 10 games each of his final 2 seasons, I doubt he gets fired, but I sure am glad he did.

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Day brought in Fields, but that team is almost exclusively made up of Meyer recruits.  My guess is the people in AA don't think Day can continue the success of Urban Meyer.  

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3 minutes ago, Deleterious said:

Day brought in Fields, but that team is almost exclusively made up of Meyer recruits.  My guess is the people in AA don't think Day can continue the success of Urban Meyer.  

They may very well think that. But if/when Harbaugh craps the bed next year what will the excuse be? I'm not willing to give him another season to find that out. Even if it doesn't workout and they lose too, I'd rather give Fleck/Fickell/Ruhle a chance to prove they can or cannot beat Ohio.

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1 minute ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

They may very well think that. But if/when Harbaugh craps the bed next year what will the excuse be? I'm not willing to give him another season to find that out. Even if it doesn't workout and they lose too, I'd rather give Fleck/Fickell/Ruhle a chance to prove they can or cannot beat Ohio.

Again, just me thinking out loud.  But I imagine they fear firing Harbaugh and hiring Rich Rod.

Harbaugh has shown he can run a mid-tier program like Michigan.  He will win 1-2 conference titles every decade, maybe flirt with the playoffs once or twice if he sticks around 20 years.  The Stadium will be full, he wont embarrass the school, he will mostly run a clean program, and the cash will continue to flow.  

It is pretty hard to risk all of that and take a flyer on a new coach.  You run the risk of hiring the next Rich Rod and doing significant damage to your program.  In fact, the odds of that happening are probably higher than hitting a home run and hiring a guy that starts beating OSU and making regular playoff appearances.  

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7 minutes ago, Deleterious said:

Day brought in Fields, but that team is almost exclusively made up of Meyer recruits.  My guess is the people in AA don't think Day can continue the success of Urban Meyer.  

They also have the 4th ranked 2020 recruiting class including 2 top 10 recruits and 8 top 100 recruits.   If they end up with the 2nd QB they are targeting and/or Emmit Smith's son they potentially will move up another spot.  It's also very early, but they are off to a strong start in 2021 (currently ranked #2 nationally) including the #2 overall recruit, 5 top 100 commits (the 6th commit is in the 120's).

 

I don't think recruiting is going to fall off too much with Day

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1 hour ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

It also is a fair question / observation that universities may have other considerations than win/loss record, independent of how the fan base may feel about that.

It is a little different than say a professional sports franchise.

Right. And I think the regents may well be satisfied if a coach runs a clean program, wins 10 games a year, keeps interest level (and attendance) up well into November, is ranked somewhere between #5 and #20 throughout the season, and every other year or so gives the perception of being a playoff contender until the final game of the regular season. That supports the University of Michigan brand sufficiently and complements the school's strength in academics and other sports. 10-3 may not have been enough for the regents if from Rich Rod, due to perceived greasiness. But if Hoke was going 10-3 and didn't send back in a concussed player, he might still be here. 

EDIT: I agree with Deleterious, who posted while I was typing this post.

 

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12 minutes ago, Deleterious said:

Again, just me thinking out loud.  But I imagine they fear firing Harbaugh and hiring Rich Rod.

Harbaugh has shown he can run a mid-tier program like Michigan.  He will win 1-2 conference titles every decade, maybe flirt with the playoffs once or twice if he sticks around 20 years.  The Stadium will be full, he wont embarrass the school, he will mostly run a clean program, and the cash will continue to flow.  

It is pretty hard to risk all of that and take a flyer on a new coach.  You run the risk of hiring the next Rich Rod and doing significant damage to your program.  In fact, the odds of that happening are probably higher than hitting a home run and hiring a guy that starts beating OSU and making regular playoff appearances.  

I certainly understand that hesitation, having gone outside the box with Rich Rod and watching it fail miserably. That said, PJ Fleck went 10-2 at Minnesota and unlike Rich Rod, runs a pretty conventional offense that works in the Big Ten. I don't know that Fleck comes to Michigan and beats Ohio State, but I would be incredibly surprised if he came here and flopped ala Rich Rod.

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Fleck has exactly one season at the level.  I don't think it is a given he can repeat his success.

Or, alternately, I would not be incredibly surprised if he flops moving forward.

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How often do coaches switch jobs in the same conference?

Rich Rod had a more proven track record than Fleck.  RR had three years in row at West Virginia where they finished in the top ten.

Honestly, if I'm Fleck I wouldn't touch the Michigan job.  If the Michigan job is available that means they just fired a Michigan legend, a guy that was loved for his time playing here, and oh yeah, won 75% of his games.  That means he would have to beat OSU 6 times out of 10 just to keep his job.  And Fleck doesn't have any love banked from the days he was slinging it to Kolesar to beat OSU.  He has to win immediately.  I would just stay at Minnesota.  

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2 hours ago, Shelton said:

This is not a good take. 
 

John Cooper coached Ohio state for 12 years, and in his final two years was 6-6 and 8-4. And he lost to Michigan in 93, 95, 96, and 97 when ranked as a top 5 team, and only in 97 was Michigan ranked higher in those games. To the extent he was fired for not being able to beat Michigan, you have to take into account the number of times he lost to a Michigan team that was a clear tier below them. 
 

These losses to OSU under Harbaugh are lacking the same context. 

I was at the 1995 game, when Ohio State came in undefeated and featured that year's Heisman Trophy winner Eddie George, and Tim Biakabutuka ran for 313 yards of Michigan's total of 381 rushing yards.  And Michigan won 31-23 and knocked the Buckeyes out of the Rose Bowl and National Championship contention.  

This just two years after Ohio State had come into Ann Arbor undefeated (but with a tie) and lost to Michigan 28-0.  But the 1995 game was the more fun of the two, because OSU was in the hunt for the National Championship and especially because we got to watch Biakabatuka run wild.

Those were the days.  Sigh.  

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21 minutes ago, six-hopper said:

I was at the 1995 game, when Ohio State came in undefeated and featured that year's Heisman Trophy winner Eddie George, and Tim Biakabutuka ran for 313 yards of Michigan's total of 381 rushing yards.  And Michigan won 31-23 and knocked the Buckeyes out of the Rose Bowl and National Championship contention.  

This just two years after Ohio State had come into Ann Arbor undefeated (but with a tie) and lost to Michigan 28-0.  But the 1995 game was the more fun of the two, because OSU was in the hunt for the National Championship and especially because we got to watch Biakabatuka run wild.

Those were the days.  Sigh.  

Those were the days - from the other perspective.  I remember the Biakabutuka game quite well.

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23 minutes ago, six-hopper said:

I was at the 1995 game, when Ohio State came in undefeated and featured that year's Heisman Trophy winner Eddie George, and Tim Biakabutuka ran for 313 yards of Michigan's total of 381 rushing yards.  And Michigan won 31-23 and knocked the Buckeyes out of the Rose Bowl and National Championship contention.  

This just two years after Ohio State had come into Ann Arbor undefeated (but with a tie) and lost to Michigan 28-0.  But the 1995 game was the more fun of the two, because OSU was in the hunt for the National Championship and especially because we got to watch Biakabatuka run wild.

Those were the days.  Sigh.  

Don't feel too bad though, my son is a freshman at ND, so we got to experience the Michigan game from that perspective this year.  

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1 hour ago, Deleterious said:

How often do coaches switch jobs in the same conference?

Rich Rod had a more proven track record than Fleck.  RR had three years in row at West Virginia where they finished in the top ten.

Honestly, if I'm Fleck I wouldn't touch the Michigan job.  If the Michigan job is available that means they just fired a Michigan legend, a guy that was loved for his time playing here, and oh yeah, won 75% of his games.  That means he would have to beat OSU 6 times out of 10 just to keep his job.  And Fleck doesn't have any love banked from the days he was slinging it to Kolesar to beat OSU.  He has to win immediately.  I would just stay at Minnesota.  

If Harbaugh were fired and one of Fleck, Fickell or Ruhle were brought in I don't think Michigan fans would (or should) expect they have to beat Ohio 6 out of 10 times just to keep their job. They should, after 5 years here, be able to have 1-2 wins versus Ohio and get to a Big Ten Conference Championship with a shot at the playoffs. 

On the subject matter of Fleck specifically, and maybe I'm just being arrogant saying this, but isn't the Michigan job just a flat out better job than Minnesota? Sure, the expectations are markedly higher and job security probably isn't as great. But the recruits you can bring in, the facilities you have access to, the prestige of the program is all far greater than at Minnesota. Who knows what is on Fleck's mind or what makes him tick. Maybe by signing an extension he is satisfied being at Minnesota and has no higher aspirations or thinks he can turn them into a national contender. Maybe he does have higher aspirations and wants to be at a nationally recognized football school.

Were I Warde Manuel though, I would be making a list (or had a list ready made going into this game) of coaches I would want to contact to replace Mr. 0-5. Fleck along with Fickell and Ruhle would be on my list.

As far as Head Coaches switching jobs in-conference, I can't honestly recall a notable person doing that recently. You have seen guys like Jimbo Fisher and Brett Beliema jump from one big program to another. You've also seen several coordinators from the same conference go to a rival school: Kirby Smart from Bama to GA, Jeremy Pruitt from Bama to TN, etc.

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expectations for footbball are different at OSU vs UM -it just is what it is. As Biggs noted, if Harbaugh runs a clean program, wins 10 games and keeps the seats full (e.g doesn't PO fans  in his wake as Brandon did for instance) he will be here as long as he wants to be. Now it is possible that if he doesn't eventually win at higher level, revenue might fall off, in which case he would face more pressure, but that is not happening now.

And lets be clear eyed about the history. In the Bo-Woody heyday, the B10 did not compete with the top southern and south-western school because they fancied they held themselves to a higher standard. What has changed is that in the nationwide shuffle of programs and conferences, OSU has been able to leverage itself  (aided not in the least by Ohio's much stronger HS football system) into the top tier of schools where no B10 teams ever really competed in the past. The change is not in how the program is being run in A^2, it's primarily at Columbus.

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0-6, 0-7, 0-8, 0-9, 0-10, 0-11, 0-12, 0-13, 0-14, 0-15? Just how pathetic does it have to get then before a change has to be made down at Schembechler Hall?

If Ohio can leverage itself during the changing of the guard in college football and become more of a nationwide powerhouse, there is no reason to think Michigan could not. It's just that we apparently refuse to adopt a new mindset. As fans, we should be demanding more of the school we love and make beating Ohio and winning National Championships our goal, not going 9-3.

And if this is what we do accept, then we best update the old Schembechler quote to "Those who stay will be 9-3."

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28 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

(aided not in the least by Ohio's much stronger HS football system) The change is not in how the program is being run in A^2, it's primarily at Columbus.

Actually 1 major change has been that Michigan very rarely recruits Ohio any more.  Part of that may be OSU doing a better job of keeping kids in state, but in the past some of Michigan's best players came from Ohio.  It just isn't happening anymore.

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35 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

0-6, 0-7, 0-8, 0-9, 0-10, 0-11, 0-12, 0-13, 0-14, 0-15? Just how pathetic does it have to get then before a change has to be made down at Schembechler Hall?

He stops generating revenue, he'll be gone.

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7 minutes ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

He stops generating revenue, he'll be gone.

When Harbaugh was brought in did anyone, AD, boosters, fans, media, think the narrative was just to be better and put more money in the pockets of the university? No, the expectation was to beat Ohio, win the Big Ten, and compete for CFB playoff appearances. All of a sudden, it feels like the narrative has shifted to "well, we're making a lot of money with this guy, so no worries."

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I can't speak for what the University's expectations were, but even if they were higher then, they reserve the right to adjust them at any time.

Just as fans have the right to not follow the program.

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From Bill Connolly at espn today:

Average SP+ rating, 2014-present:

1. Alabama (32.5)
2. Ohio State (28.5)
3. Clemson (27.5)
4. Oklahoma (25.0)
5. LSU (24.3)
6. Georgia (22.8)
7. Michigan (21.4)
8. Auburn (20.0)
9. Penn State (19.7)
10. Notre Dame (19.4)
11. Washington (19.3)
12. Wisconsin (19.0)
13. Florida (17.2)
14. USC (16.4)
15. Utah (15.0)

Your rival defines your perspective. Michigan's hire of Jim Harbaugh has been an unquestionable success. A former Bo Schembechler quarterback in Ann Arbor, Harbaugh has gone 47-17 in five seasons; in the previous seven years, Michigan had gone 46-42. If Harbaugh goes 0-12 in each of the next two seasons -- call me crazy, but I'm guessing he won't -- he'll still have the better seven-year record. He has three top-15 finishes (with a chance at a fourth), and that's two more than Rich Rodriguez (2008-10) and Brady Hoke (2011-14) have combined.

——————————

It unquestionably sucks that Michigan has lost the last five games to OSU. 
 

Prior to this year, LSU had lost eight in a row to Alabama. Georgia has lost its last five to Alabama (0-4 since 2012).

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3 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

Forget what will or won't happen down in A2 from the administration. Do you as a fan want Harbaugh gone?

As an alumnus of the school and a supporter of the program, I want Jim Harbaugh to remain as the head football coach. 

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20 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

Forget what will or won't happen down in A2 from the administration. Do you as a fan want Harbaugh gone?

I would have fired him Saturday night.

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