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Deleterious

2019 Michigan Football

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Which part?

Winning only 1 of the big games isn’t improbable.  That could even be argued as likely based on recent history.

Losing once on the road at PSU or Whisky isn’t likely but certainly not out of the question. 

The random upset is a long shot with that schedule but Army, or Maryland or Iowa could have a day.  That’s why it’s a random upset.  

Meaningless bowl games are always a crap shoot. 

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Its the overall combination of things.

Even if you think the following are the likelihoods of each of the things happening, and they are independent of one another, the likelihood all happen is each of the odds multiplied together:

a. Lose 2 of 3 at home.  If it is likely, it is maybe 60% chance?  Personally I think this is 50%/50% at worst, but conceding the point.

b. Spit on the road. 35% chance?

c. Random loss. 10% chance?

d. Bowl loss. Normally I'd go 50/50, but call it 60% loss likelihood to be pessimistic.

0.60 X 0.35 X 0.10 X 0.60 = 1.25% chance.

Even tripling the odds they lose a random game to 30%, you still are at under 4% chance.

 

If they do lose 5, I think they drop all 3 of the big home games and split with Wiscy/PSU, and then drop the meaningless bowl game.

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Heck, if you think each of points a - d have a 60% shot of happening, the odds of all four happening together is 0.6^4 => 13%.

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Just now, Shelton said:

Is 4% improbable?

1 in 25 odds?  Yes, I think that qualifies as improbable.

If a 1 in 25 shot horse won the Kentucky Derby, I suspect at least one major publication would characterize it as improbable.

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Just now, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

1 in 25 odds?  Yes, I think that qualifies as improbable.

If a 1 in 25 shot horse won the Kentucky Derby, I suspect at least one major publication would characterize it as improbable.

Thanks, Biggs. I figured it had to be less than 3% to be called improbable, so this has been helpful.

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Again, that requires the 4 events to be independent of each other, which they likely aren't.

Meaning, if they lose 2 out of 3 to the big schools, it means they are more likely to split with UW/PSU or drop a random game or lose the bowl game because it means they are more likely to be worse than what they appear to be now.

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Just now, Shelton said:

Thanks, Biggs. I figured it had to be less than 3% to be called improbable, so this has been helpful.

What answer do you want me to give?

Honest question.  I'd suggest anything under 5% is improbable.

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1 minute ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

What answer do you want me to give?

Honest question.  I'd suggest anything under 5% is improbable.

Lol. I would suggest anything less than 50% is improbable. 

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Cmon, nobody told me there would be math involved in this thread. 

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I'm hoping Dylan McCaffery steps up and takes the QB job. I think it would end up a disaster if Michigan went with the whole dueling QB's between McCaffery and Shea Patterson. Harbaugh needs to pick a guy and stick with him. I'm hoping that player is McCaffery because I liked what I saw in his extremely limited playing time last season and I think Patterson is what he is with limited room for growth under Harbaugh's offense.

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michigan has a senior qb and an experienced, talented offensive line.  they should score a lot of points and win most of their games.

i mean, its not like they have tim drevno terribly coaching their oline anymore.  who would even hire that guy after so many failures?  who i ask you, who?

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You got that one all mixed up.  Who in their right mind hires Tim Drevno as an OC?  He’s a career OL coach and has proven to be a damn good one.   He never should’ve been splitting duties and given OC title even if someone else may or may not have called plays.  That was a giant Harbaugh fail.

 

 

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6 hours ago, Hongbit said:

You got that one all mixed up.  Who in their right mind hires Tim Drevno as an OC?  He’s a career OL coach and has proven to be a damn good one.   He never should’ve been splitting duties and given OC title even if someone else may or may not have called plays.  That was a giant Harbaugh fail.

 

 

he was not a good oline coach at michigan.

dont worry, eventually u$c will wake up and hire urban meyer.

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2 hours ago, Buddha said:

he was not a good oline coach at michigan.

dont worry, eventually u$c will wake up and hire urban meyer.

I'm sure the weather in SoCal will be a miraculous cure for the headaches.

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Phil Steele has us winning the Big 10 and another guy on ESPN+ thinks we're going undefeated in the regular season.  I'll have what they're having!

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On 8/8/2019 at 8:39 AM, Gehringer_2 said:

I'm sure the weather in SoCal will be a miraculous cure for the headaches.

and u$c can save money by having him teach ethics! he's got experience now.

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I have no idea what this team will do this year.   They have an OC and (allegedly) Harbaugh is not calling the offense at all.   It could be a lot like last year,  a good regular season destroyed with a loss to OSU.      No way to tell until their first real opponent.  

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I think the offense will be elite- especially the passing offense. Reports out of camp seem bearish on the defense. Or, at least, in terms of slowing down offenses like OSU. I'm sure they'll do well against most teams on the schedule.

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I’m not going to believe anything I hear about UM until they play meaningful games. The media always overhypes what UM is capable of. 

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21 hours ago, Hongbit said:

This is pretty cool.  

 

speaking of Mason, he's moved to DT. When was the last time you saw a FB converted to D-Line? Should be interesting to see if he makes any impact.

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I've given up making predictions. I'm hopeful, with Gattis calling the plays, UM will give defenses more to think about. I'm a little worried about the RB position, though. The fact that Mason has moved to DL makes me wonder if that has to do with the depth we lost on D, or the fact that Gattis will not be using a FB as much.  Maybe a little of both. Replacing 4 starters on D will not be easy, but Don Brown seems to be able to motivate the new guys & get them ready.  

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Michigan comes in at number 7 on preseason AP poll.  They are one of seven Big 10 teams to make the rankings.

If the rankings were to hold up and Michigan were to make the Big 10 Championship game they very well may end up playing 9 ranked teams this season if you include that game and the bowl game.  That would be crazy. 

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