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Tiger's GM Contract Extended

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1 hour ago, Keepleyland2 said:

I don't get this argument. I really don't

It basically boils down to I don't have enough trut to extend the guy; but I do to let him trade are only valuable pieces left and get prospects to help the rebuild. Seems contradictory. 

And again, GM contracts extensions are really meaningless. The highest paid GM makes about $3 million a year. If they are at the deadline next year and all the prospects stink, do you think the family worth $6 billion won't fire the GM over a few million?

but why extend him when you dont have to?  what's the point?  are they making progress? 

and do i think that an organization would not fire a guy in order to save a few million?  yes.  

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7 minutes ago, Keepleyland2 said:

I always like posts like this. You know the ones that list all our guys as high risk. And who everybody else is somehow more safe.

And says we should have hired X from some winning team, cause thats what the Brewers, Twins and Giants have done. Except, the giants suck and ignores also those teams that hired guys from winning groups that you know, suck.

Seems like someone had his mind made up on Chris and Avila before they even got started and eveyrthing is looked through that prism. 

Which of these new school GMs have fallen flat on their face? I'm looking at the list of MLB teams and while it is too early to tell either way for some teams (like Baltimore) I don't see a single obvious failure.  It seems like in recent years, it only goes bad when ownership goes against this grain, like the Mets in hiring an agent to run their team. Of course the Giants suck, they have not even really started their rebuild, but I'd be thrilled if we replaced Avila with Zaidi.

My point in pointing out the high risk nature of our top prospects - all of whom I'm excited about, particularly Mize/Manning - is that I still don't see a solid and safe core of prospects from which Avila can build a contender. 

What is a move that Avila made that felt unique/special/like he really got the better end of a deal/made a discovery? Outside of Martin for Castro.

The most optimistic view I can take is that prospect progress is rarely linear. Faedo looked toast last year, like a middle reliever at best and one year later looks like he could contribute to a major league rotation. Hopefully, next year (or even the 2nd half) that is the case for some of the handful of our best-yet-struggling prospects.

For this team to contend in 22, it will need Daz, Castro, Rogers, Paredes to be solid contributors and at least one of them to be a star. 

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1 minute ago, irvink said:

Which of these new school GMs have fallen flat on their face? =

Are we talking of the last year or the last ten years? Cause remember when everyone was hiring billly beane disciples and they all fell flat? 

If your talking about guys hired like the twins or brewers isn't it too early to say? maybe they have one nice season and four bad ones. They are only in year 2 or 3 of the job...much like avila. 

At this point on Avila we don't have enough data IMO. We don't. He made some bad singings early on, no doubt. But, overall? I don't know yet. 

And sure the prospect system had no where to go but up. But, someone still has to mix Mize and not Aiken. etc. etc. I don't get why people get punished for doing the right thing. In two years, our system has gone from #30 to about #10. That's not done with three first round picks alone. That seems to be some pretty good progress. While the numbers don't look great for the minor leaguers right now, how many are playing against talent years older? **** I think eveyone just drafted is two years older than Parades. 

He did a pretty good tear down over two years, he should get a chance to build it a bit. It's too early to say whether it will be succesful or not. The next 18 months will define Avila. You'll see some of the prospects arrive and you'll see if the guys can make a jump after being aggressively pushed in the minors. If the end of next year Mize is hurt, Cameron hit .220 and Green is still in instructional league, sure fire him. But, if Mize is the rookie of the year, Cameron hits .275 and Green makes an appearance in Lakeland and is ranked in the top #20, boy that looks good for the future. 

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1 minute ago, Charles Liston said:

Whether or not you like Al Avila, this extension is silly.  There is no need for it.

Again, why? what does it matter?

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26 minutes ago, irvink said:

Which of these new school GMs have fallen flat on their face? I'm looking at the list of MLB teams and while it is too early to tell either way for some teams (like Baltimore) I don't see a single obvious failure.  It seems like in recent years, it only goes bad when ownership goes against this grain, like the Mets in hiring an agent to run their team. Of course the Giants suck, they have not even really started their rebuild, but I'd be thrilled if we replaced Avila with Zaidi.

My point in pointing out the high risk nature of our top prospects - all of whom I'm excited about, particularly Mize/Manning - is that I still don't see a solid and safe core of prospects from which Avila can build a contender. 

What is a move that Avila made that felt unique/special/like he really got the better end of a deal/made a discovery? Outside of Martin for Castro..

I still think we’ll be pleased with Paredes, and hopefully Candelario, for Wilson and Al JR.

His trades have been better than his free agent signings—really, only Fiers and Martin were solid, but only one was parlayed into a decent prospect.

At the end of the day, his legacy will be defined by the drafts he oversees.

And it was foolish to extend him—fan backlash has been strong and just shows how out of touch the Ilitch family is.  This didn’t need to happen now.

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One thing Al has done really well is chosen some players with objectively great names, and I think that is often overlooked.

A market inefficiency, if you will.

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1 hour ago, Keepleyland2 said:

Again, why? what does it matter?

Because the results so far have been mixed.  And there was no need to do it because he was under contract.

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1 hour ago, Keepleyland2 said:

Are we talking of the last year or the last ten years? Cause remember when everyone was hiring billly beane disciples and they all fell flat? 

If your talking about guys hired like the twins or brewers isn't it too early to say? maybe they have one nice season and four bad ones. They are only in year 2 or 3 of the job...much like avila. 

At this point on Avila we don't have enough data IMO. We don't. He made some bad singings early on, no doubt. But, overall? I don't know yet. 

And sure the prospect system had no where to go but up. But, someone still has to mix Mize and not Aiken. etc. etc. I don't get why people get punished for doing the right thing. In two years, our system has gone from #30 to about #10. That's not done with three first round picks alone. That seems to be some pretty good progress. While the numbers don't look great for the minor leaguers right now, how many are playing against talent years older? **** I think eveyone just drafted is two years older than Parades. 

He did a pretty good tear down over two years, he should get a chance to build it a bit. It's too early to say whether it will be succesful or not. The next 18 months will define Avila. You'll see some of the prospects arrive and you'll see if the guys can make a jump after being aggressively pushed in the minors. If the end of next year Mize is hurt, Cameron hit .220 and Green is still in instructional league, sure fire him. But, if Mize is the rookie of the year, Cameron hits .275 and Green makes an appearance in Lakeland and is ranked in the top #20, boy that looks good for the future. 

This system was total, I mean total garbage when DD left. The worst in baseball. It takes time to build depth, which is, to me, what Avila has done. Who knows when or maybe if it will pay off. The jury is still out on Al. Next year will be huge. 

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13 minutes ago, Tim Mitchell said:

This system was total, I mean total garbage when DD left. The worst in baseball. It takes time to build depth, which is, to me, what Avila has done. Who knows when or maybe if it will pay off. The jury is still out on Al. Next year will be huge. 

I agree with all of this, but still have not seen enough from Al to be convinced he’s on the right path.  And if he isn’t, it will likely set the franchise back another 3-4 years, on top of this rebuild.

I’m too old for this ****.

 

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I do agree that the system was trash when he took over and he was in a bad spot.  Ideally we could've traded guys like Kinsler, Verlander and JD after the 2016 season but Ilitch wanted to go for it.    Not sure how much more he would've gotten if anything for Kinsler and JD but he certainly would've gotten more for JV since he was coming off a 2nd place CY young voting.   Also if the Cubs really did offer the same package for Fulmer as they did for Quintana he likely would've done it if they they weren't going for it cause at the time of that trade the Tigers weren't in sell mode yet.   

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20 minutes ago, Tim Mitchell said:

This system was total, I mean total garbage when DD left. The worst in baseball. It takes time to build depth, which is, to me, what Avila has done. Who knows when or maybe if it will pay off. The jury is still out on Al. Next year will be huge. 

I don't disagree with this, but he was left with JD, JV, Wilson/Avila, Upton, Kinsler, Castellanos, Fulmer, Greene to deal, which I believe, is a lot more than Luhnow had when he came to Houston.

Houston found other/innovative ways to bring in talent beyond the first round picks, bc actually, their track record (and track record for first round picks in general) was not stellar. Correa a win. Appel a total bust. Aiken would have been a bust, but ending up being huge for them (allowed them to take Bregman + Daz the following year, not to mention Kyle Tucker). 

That's why picking at the top of the draft is not a means to an end. While all 3 of Manning-Mize-Greene look like good picks, there's a pretty good chance (just by the odds of baseball) that one of them is a total bust. 

On positive end, if say 3 of Castro, Daz, Rogers and Paredes are solid regulars - which doesn't seem totally unreasonable, that's at least a decent start. Hopefully, they can land a good hitter for Boyd and another solid player for Greene and we end up with a good college bat in next year's draft, which sounds like the real strength of that class.

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Mize can't really be considered a good pick since perhaps 30 out of 30 teams would have taken him at the top of that year's draft. Not picking him would have been dereliction of duty to just about any team.

Manning might end up being a better pick because we had options at that slot, and he might end up being more dominant (i.e., better whiff rate) with perhaps less injury concern (of which there was some about Mize going in).

It will be interesting to see how Greene ends up (if I live long enough), since he's yet another thick, lumbering hit-first future first baseman, of which the Tigers must see some short of shortage looming in the future.

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I have no problem with extending Avila. While there isn't any tangible proof his decisions are going to result in a championship there certainly is not any actionable reasons for a dismissal. Small sample size for a complete rebuild. 

As for the timing it seems having DD and Boston in town may have pushed C. Ilitch into action. I think bad blood remains from DD's departure and in some small way extending Al is a"we're just fine without you" statement. Whether valid or not it does remove some angst for Avila and maybe allow him to not make a poor decision under pressure for worry of job security. And maybe Chris trusts Al.

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socal, are you in the earthquake zone? Stuff is bad.

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6 hours ago, Buddha said:

again, why NOW? 

 

5 hours ago, Casimir said:

Great question.

The timing of the announcement coming on the Friday of a long holiday weekend, when most people are off doing summery things and not paying attention to the news, is indeed odd. 

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10 minutes ago, 1776 said:

socal, are you in the earthquake zone? Stuff is bad.

I am on the coast Between Newport and Laguna so not bad here luckily. Are you in The zone ?

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30 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Mize can't really be considered a good pick since perhaps 30 out of 30 teams would have taken him at the top of that year's draft. Not picking him would have been dereliction of duty to just about any team.

Manning might end up being a better pick because we had options at that slot, and he might end up being more dominant (i.e., better whiff rate) with perhaps less injury concern (of which there was some about Mize going in).

It will be interesting to see how Greene ends up (if I live long enough), since he's yet another thick, lumbering hit-first future first baseman, of which the Tigers must see some short of shortage looming in the future.

Greene doesn’t profile that way at all, unless my sarcasm meter is broken.

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Just now, socaltiger said:

I am on the coast Between Newport and Laguna so not bad here luckily. Are you in The zone ?

We’re visiting in the bay area. Read there were tremors in Sacramento. Glad all is well for you. 

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5 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

Greene doesn’t profile that way at all, unless my sarcasm meter is broken.

What way have you seen that he profiles?

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8 minutes ago, chasfh said:

What way have you seen that he profiles?

Physically, he looks like he shouldn’t have to move to 1B.  He’s currently playing CF, but might need to move to LF, but seems like he should have enough athleticism to stay somewhere in the OF.

B20844D5-A6EF-4C34-B60F-FD8E9C8950A2.jpeg

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He may look to you like he shouldn't have to move to first, and he may seem to you like he should have enough athleticism to stay somewhere in the outfield, and your picture might suggest to you on sight that he has the body to stick out there, but these articles both suggest his future might lie at first.

https://2080baseball.com/draft-spotlight/riley-greene/

https://www.blessyouboys.com/2019/4/25/18306434/mlb-draft-2019-profile-riley-greene-scouting-report-detroit-tigers

To your point, other write-ups I've seen pegged him as a future LF with limited range and a meh arm, without any mention at first.

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he'll have to pry the first base job from rey rivera's cold, dead hands!

(you see that chas?  that's sarcasm)  :)

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12 minutes ago, chasfh said:

He may look to you like he shouldn't have to move to first, and he may seem to you like he should have enough athleticism to stay somewhere in the outfield, and your picture might suggest to you on sight that he has the body to stick out there, but these articles both suggest his future might lie at first.

https://2080baseball.com/draft-spotlight/riley-greene/

https://www.blessyouboys.com/2019/4/25/18306434/mlb-draft-2019-profile-riley-greene-scouting-report-detroit-tigers

To your point, other write-ups I've seen pegged him as a future LF with limited range and a meh arm, without any mention at first.

Yeah, I’m not smart enough to project what he’ll look like, or more importantly, where he’ll have to play, but he certainly doesn’t look like a Mark Texeira-type that you associate with 1B.

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Anyone find it odd that despite throwing a press conference to announce the extension, that has been zero word about the terms? We knew immediately that upon replacing DD, AA had been granted a 5 year deal. 

Now, vague "multi-year extension."

I'm hopeful that it is just for 2 years. That's long enough to remove Avila's lame duck status while he's out there trying to make trades and hires for the next year or two but not so long that Ilitch would worry about the money if he feels the need to fire him in a year.  

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