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The 2020 Presidential Race

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33 minutes ago, The Ronz said:

It definitely isn't random. It could be that people who support Trump are enthused to talk about Trump while those who don't support him don't discuss that fact openly.

I don't know.

I'm just afraid that everyone is in for a very rude awakening come election day.

 

I just don't see it myself from my own anecdotal view.  There were a lot of 'silent' Trump voters 4 years ago.  My Rush Limbaugh loving parents didn't put a Trump sign up 4 years ago, they always had the republican nominee signs up for as long as I can remember, but couldn't publicly do it last time.  That said, without reluctance, they voted for Trump.  My dad, before he passed, was getting more and more critical of Trump.  My mom went the other way and has a Trump sign up now though.  She's an unabashed Trump supporter.  That's what I see now, Trump supporters now are no longer silent, they want to be heard, they scream it from the roof tops.  They feel empowered.

I voted for my first democrat for POTUS this year (dropped off absentee ballot the other day), my brother will be going in on election day and voting for his first democrat, my other brother is on the fence and thinking of simply not casting a vote for any POTUS, if he does that, that'll be his first time he hasn't voted for a republican.  I have some aunts and uncles that follow my immediate family, either full Trump or voting for a party they don't agree with on most issues.  My MIL, she re-posts every (likely Russian) propaganda posts about Biden or Covid.  To the average person, they'd assume she's voting for Trump.  Yet when you question her about it, 'IDK, I just saw it, in case it's true I figured I should share it' and then you find out she doesn't plan on voting for Trump.  

I thought Hillary was going to win last time, but I wasn't surprised when Trump won.  It is a crazy year, I am trying not to get to excited with the high voter turnout numbers that are expected as many folks are just trying to avoid the lines the day of.  But I will be surprised if Trump wins this time, and if the turnout is what many are expecting, I'd be surprised if Trump even gets near 200 electoral votes.

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33 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

These shy Trump voters not even tell pollsters their voting for Biden, but they give Biden gobs of cash.

 

Looking at this map in terms of number of donors, not dollars, and Biden leads in southern Macomb County up to about Sterling Heights. Pretty much what I expected. What jumped out to me is that zip codes around Traverse City Biden has a 2 to 1 and in some cases 3 to 1 advantage over Trump. This advantage extends all the way up to Petoskey and Biden even has an advantage in Alpena. Trump doesn't have the big leads in individual donors that you would expect in Northern Michigan and he doesn't appear to be in good shape in the UP either. 

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This NYT donor zip code thing looks cool. 

Lots of Biden money in Traverse City, Pentwater/Ludington,  and some in the UP.    The variety in Florida is concerning.   I think based on this, that Biden winds handily but Florida isn't the immediate bellweather we want.

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7 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

Looking at this map in terms of number of donors, not dollars, and Biden leads in southern Macomb County up to about Sterling Heights. Pretty much what I expected. What jumped out to me is that zip codes around Traverse City Biden has a 2 to 1 and in some cases 3 to 1 advantage over Trump. This advantage extends all the way up to Petoskey and Biden even has an advantage in Alpena. Trump doesn't have the big leads in individual donors that you would expect in Northern Michigan and he doesn't appear to be in good shape in the UP either. 

I owe you a coke.

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The donor map shows that there are a lot of rural Biden donors who are literally the shy Biden voters.

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I expected the Thumb to be bright red and it isn't. Sure Trump has the advantage, which was expected, but Biden appears to be keeping those margins close.

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4 minutes ago, ROMAD1 said:

This NYT donor zip code thing looks cool. 

Lots of Biden money in Traverse City, Pentwater/Ludington,  and some in the UP.    The variety in Florida is concerning.   I think based on this, that Biden winds handily but Florida isn't the immediate bellweather we want.

Traverse City doesn't surprise me too much. They have been working on building up their downtown into something of a little Royal Oak to attract younger year round residents. With more and more people working remotely, even prior to COVID, I think Traverse City has a higher college educated population than the rest of Northern Michigan. It also attracts retirees which are starting to favor Biden vs inland rural areas are more poorer and less downstate transplants. 

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29 minutes ago, ROMAD1 said:

 

 

22 minutes ago, ROMAD1 said:

This NYT donor zip code thing looks cool. 

Lots of Biden money in Traverse City, Pentwater/Ludington,  and some in the UP.    The variety in Florida is concerning.   I think based on this, that Biden winds handily but Florida isn't the immediate bellweather we want.

This ties right into 84Lives' New Yorker article. The parties are inverting in terms of the affluent becoming more Democratic and the non AA poor becoming more Republican. 

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Individual Donors don't necessarily equate to votes, but the amount of blue in Collin County (north of Dallas) on the individual donor map is craaaazy.

My zip code is about a 50/50 split, which seems right

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3 hours ago, Motown Bombers said:

 

nice job voting for jill stein you morons.  remember when she collected all that money for a recount in wisconsin?  idiots.

i remember getting into an argument on this site with "ron burgandy" (rip) when he said the supreme court shouldnt matter when voting for president.  welp.  no.  it matters a lot.

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2 hours ago, mtutiger said:

Individual Donors don't necessarily equate to votes, but the amount of blue in Collin County (north of Dallas) on the individual donor map is craaaazy.

My zip code is about a 50/50 split, which seems right

It's true that donors don't necessarily equal votes, but there probably is a correlation.  Donors are probably more likely to vote (because now they have a "stake" in the outcome), and thus donors can be viewed as a function of enthusiasm for a candidate, which transfers into voting.

In other words, if people aren't excited enough about Trump to bother donating to his campaign, they might also not be motivated enough to actually make the effort to vote for him.

Of course, there are caveats, mainly the idea that you'd have to account for the ability of people to be able to afford to donate to a candidate, and how the people who can't are distributed on the political spectrum.

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1.  Where is Bill Barr?

2.  What is afflicting Mitch?

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Even though MI appears to be safe on polling Biden's still coming here Saturday.... anything to read into that?  

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8 hours ago, mtutiger said:

Individual Donors don't necessarily equate to votes, but the amount of blue in Collin County (north of Dallas) on the individual donor map is craaaazy.

My zip code is about a 50/50 split, which seems right

I would put more stock in individual donors than this theory of shy Trump voters. The individual donor map also pretty much confirms what I already thought. I wish there was a 2016 map for comparison. 

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1 minute ago, Oblong said:

Even though MI appears to be safe on polling Biden's still coming here Saturday.... anything to read into that?  

I've been kind of concerned how much time both campaigns have spent in Michigan recently. 

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13 minutes ago, Oblong said:

Even though MI appears to be safe on polling Biden's still coming here Saturday.... anything to read into that?  

Down ballot support. 

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19 minutes ago, Oblong said:

Even though MI appears to be safe on polling Biden's still coming here Saturday.... anything to read into that?  

He's doing blue wall maintenance. 

Probably a good idea after 2016

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