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The 2020 Presidential Race

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I can't believe Trump released this footage on his own recognizance. 

Biden oughtta hammer him on pre-existing conditions / Ocare tonight

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Tonight will be the beginning of the end for Biden. Biden's bar is set so high and Trump's bar is set so low that Trump will be hailed as the winner of the debate and the race will be deemed to have changed. It doesn't matter if any of that is "true" or not - that is how it will be spun by the media.

  • Confused 1

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Biden winning  10% of Kansas Rs, Bollier 11%.... Neither will win though, guessing the undecideds aren't gonna break near enough in their direction.

Part of why I'm bullish on NE-2 (going back to the conversation in the Electoral Contest thread).... Trump has a big college educated suburban problem, even in traditionally R states.

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7 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

I can't believe Trump released this footage on his own recognizance. 

Biden oughtta hammer him on pre-existing conditions / Ocare tonight

Trump has been, is, and will continue to be persuaded that there are enough White Grievance voters for him to win any election if he can just get every last one of them to turn out. It has always been his single strategy and those have been the only voters his has ever been interested in reaching. So to Trump anything connected to Obama is still ore to mine. And sure, in a country were only 50% of the people normally vote, you can theorize those voters are out there. But any kind of American convention political wisdom tells you that it is not possible to do that without energizing the even larger number of other voters who also don't vote. That is all this election is about - turnout. The Dem's have the numbers, all they have to do to get their country back is show up. If they let Trump win by driving a higher turnout of a smaller percentage of the total electorate, I guess they(we) deserve it.

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if that is how Doofus reacted when a white woman asked him hard questions, tonight should be off the hook

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35 minutes ago, mtutiger said:
Biden winning  10% of Kansas Rs, Bollier 11%.... Neither will win though, guessing the undecideds aren't gonna break near enough in their direction.

Part of why I'm bullish on NE-2 (going back to the conversation in the Electoral Contest thread).... Trump has a big college educated suburban problem, even in traditionally R states.

Quote

“I don’t know anything about Joe Biden, and everything I know about Trump, I dislike, so you can say I’m voting for Biden because I can’t stand Donald Trump,” said Richard Loveall, 77, a retired computer programmer who cast his ballot for Mr. Trump four years ago because he didn’t like the Democratic nominee, Hillary Clinton.

His views of the president today are searing. “He has no integrity,” Mr. Loveall said. “He cheats all the time. He never does anything he said he’s going to do. He’s not a man who honors his word.”

 

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6 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

Is it the audio quality or does his voice sound different like he may, you know, have a respiratory virus? 

I thought the same thing. He sounds raspy for sure. 

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23 minutes ago, tigerbomb13 said:

What a *****

seriously what a baby

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For someone who inherited wealth, failed at numerous businesses and yet still maintains a wealthy lifestyle, and lost a presidential election but still became president, sure does whine a lot. 

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Poll largely unchanged from September, although one interesting thing is that it's another survey with Biden pulling even with Trump on the economy (47-48)

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1 hour ago, Motown Bombers said:

Is this all part of the 3 dimensional chess he's playing on all of us political rubes and novices?

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11 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

Poll largely unchanged from September, although one interesting thing is that it's another survey with Biden pulling even with Trump on the economy (47-48)

I have no idea how Republicans poll so well on the economy. The worst economic disasters since the Great Depression have happened under Republican leadership. 

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economist study showing 56% of rejected mail in ballots are from minority voters.

in states where there are close elections, small margins such as these may help republicans tip the elections in their favor given democrats' reliance on minority votes.

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12 minutes ago, Buddha said:

economist study showing 56% of rejected mail in ballots are from minority voters.

in states where there are close elections, small margins such as these may help republicans tip the elections in their favor given democrats' reliance on minority votes.

that's one of my biggest fears... could be important in states like PA

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27 minutes ago, Buddha said:

economist study showing 56% of rejected mail in ballots are from minority voters.

One thing I wonder about with the statistic about rejected ballot is just how many of them there will actually be, and whether the rates of rejection are canceled out by any gains made by making the ballot more accessible to more people

For instance, using the Elect Project website, using Michigan, out of 1.9 mil returned mail ballots, 1,329 have been been rejected (which rounds to 0.1% of ballots); for the counties like Oakland and Wayne (with a lot of voters by mail), 215 (out of 289k) and 262 (out of 312k) have been rejected. (https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/MI.html)

AFAIK, the other state has some is North Carolina (with about 5k out of 690k votes; 0.8% rejection rate), which is a little more significant, and probably reflective of the demographics there.

Some of it may just come down to public education too, and how well states explain the rules to their citizens.... maybe Michigan has done a better job than some other states?

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6 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

One thing I wonder about with the statistic about rejected ballot is just how many of them there will actually be, and whether the rates of rejection are canceled out by any gains made by making the ballot more accessible to more people

For instance, using the Elect Project website, using Michigan, out of 1.9 mil returned mail ballots, 1,329 have been been rejected (which rounds to 0.1% of ballots); for the counties like Oakland and Wayne (with a lot of voters by mail), 215 (out of 289k) and 262 (out of 312k) have been rejected. (https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/MI.html)

AFAIK, the other state has some is North Carolina (with about 5k out of 690k votes; 0.8% rejection rate), which is a little more significant, and probably reflective of the demographics there.

Some of it may just come down to public education too, and how well states explain the rules to their citizens.... maybe Michigan has done a better job than some other states?

Jocelyn Benson has been on the TV a lot instructing people how to submit ballots. I believe Michigan also contacts voters if there are issues with the ballot to fix them. 

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