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The 2020 Presidential Race

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 The pandemic has permanently altered our voting process where many people will never go back to going to a poll.  We did our ballots yesterday and loved being able to sit down and research the down ballot races we never hear about

becauae of that...


It would be a good idea, but will never happen because of ratings, if the media and networks on Election Day would temper some of the projections and analysis.  Change the expectations so that we have “election week”.  Maybe they will be doing that already given the increase in mail and absentee voting.  
 

do states know how many ballots they got on Election Day?  That should be part of the reporting.  When a precinct or county or whatever reports their numbers do they first report poll votes then tabulate the mail ballots?  Report them all at once or just say “here’s X%”. Don’t refer to a poll vote and mail vote indifferent terms.  Before they were just treated like extra votes but not significant “yeah we will get to those”

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If you are a black teenager in SC, just don't be uppity and there won't be a problem.

You hear me, boy?

 

  • Sad 2

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18 minutes ago, Oblong said:

 The pandemic has permanently altered our voting process where many people will never go back to going to a poll.  We did our ballots yesterday and loved being able to sit down and research the down ballot races we never hear about

becauae of that...


It would be a good idea, but will never happen because of ratings, if the media and networks on Election Day would temper some of the projections and analysis.  Change the expectations so that we have “election week”.  Maybe they will be doing that already given the increase in mail and absentee voting.  

My understanding is that networks are doing this, fwiw

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47 minutes ago, RatkoVarda said:

If you are a black teenager in SC, just don't be uppity and there won't be a problem.

You hear me, boy?

 

What the living ****?

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25 minutes ago, tigerbomb13 said:

What the living ****?

Lindsey has fond memories of the days when Negro youth knew their place.

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7 minutes ago, RatkoVarda said:

Lindsey has fond memories of the days when Negro youth knew their place.

He doesn’t use newfangled language like that. “Colored” was good enough when he was a kid and it’s good enough now.

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1 hour ago, RatkoVarda said:

If you are a black teenager in SC, just don't be uppity and there won't be a problem.

You hear me, boy?

 

Devil’s Advocate asks, if that was the question, why didn’t they include it in the clip? And why did they cut off the reaction of the audience from the clip? Did people laugh? Did people gasp? How did the South Carolinians in the room respond to it? D.A. asks this because he’s always at least a little suspicious of closely edited clips.

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4 hours ago, chasfh said:

A question was asked about this a week or two ago, and the answer appears to be Ohio.

 

Actually, the article is saying something else:

Kyle Kondik... doesn’t think it matters, for the national contest, whether Mr Biden pulls off a victory there—a close race would be good enough for him. ... Mr Biden, in contrast, could triumph even if Ohio remains tantalisingly just out of reach.

 

I think the question asked previously was which state would one choose to decide whether to bet $1,000 on the election. I said Ohio (reason in a minute...); but I think the actual correct answer for that is PA (a state a few others had chosen). For purposes of betting, PA is the tipping point state or, the swing state tilting highest towards Biden. If he loses PA, he may very well (most likely?) lose NC, AZ, FL and OH. If he wins any ONE of those states, Trump loses. Therefore, if PA is definitely in Biden's hands, Trump definitely loses. That's the state I would choose to be a bellweather if I were placing a bet on Biden.

Alternatively, I had chosen Ohio as more of an indicator state and not a tipping point state. If betting, gotta go with the tipping point state. If looking at the relative strength of Biden's EC votes, I think Ohio is the indicator. If Biden takes OH, he has also taken PA, MI, WI, MN, and possible even Iowa. I think PA and AZ are leaning strongest towards Biden so... even though OH does not impact AZ in any way, I would still say if Biden wins OH he has also won AZ. Texas/ Georgia: too close to call. Florida: like trying to hold onto the tail of a Tiger and therefore I don't think the state can give a lot of indication of anything except the state is impossible to predict.

One last indicator state: Texas. If Biden wins Texas, that's an indication of a complete and total EC landslide. A wipeout.

 

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3 minutes ago, 84 Lives!!! said:

Actually, the article is saying something else:

Kyle Kondik... doesn’t think it matters, for the national contest, whether Mr Biden pulls off a victory there—a close race would be good enough for him. ... Mr Biden, in contrast, could triumph even if Ohio remains tantalisingly just out of reach.

 

I think the question asked previously was which state would one choose to decide whether to bet $1,000 on the election. I said Ohio (reason in a minute...); but I think the actual correct answer for that is PA (a state a few others had chosen). For purposes of betting, PA is the tipping point state or, the swing state tilting highest towards Biden. If he loses PA, he may very well (most likely?) lose NC, AZ, FL and OH. If he wins any ONE of those states, Trump loses. Therefore, if PA is definitely in Biden's hands, Trump definitely loses. That's the state I would choose to be a bellweather if I were placing a bet on Biden.

Alternatively, I had chosen Ohio as more of an indicator state and not a tipping point state. If betting, gotta go with the tipping point state. If looking at the relative strength of Biden's EC votes, I think Ohio is the indicator. If Biden takes OH, he has also taken PA, MI, WI, MN, and possible even Iowa. I think PA and AZ are leaning strongest towards Biden so... even though OH does not impact AZ in any way, I would still say if Biden wins OH he has also won AZ. Texas/ Georgia: too close to call. Florida: like trying to hold onto the tail of a Tiger and therefore I don't think the state can give a lot of indication of anything except the state is impossible to predict.

One last indicator state: Texas. If Biden wins Texas, that's an indication of a complete and total EC landslide. A wipeout.

 

My question wasn’t based  necessarily on the winner of that state or it being a tipping point.  It was if you had to bet $1000 on the election  what is the one state whose result you like to see to help you decide, meaning county totals, turnout, etc.  a close Biden loss in OH would tell you a lot about other states like PA and WI. A triumphant Trump win could also tell you a lot.  If Biden wins OH then I assume he’s won FL and maybe N.C. too along with the PA, MI and OH so it’s moot. 

 

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57 minutes ago, Oblong said:

My question wasn’t based  necessarily on the winner of that state or it being a tipping point.  It was if you had to bet $1000 on the election  what is the one state whose result you like to see to help you decide, meaning county totals, turnout, etc.  a close Biden loss in OH would tell you a lot about other states like PA and WI. A triumphant Trump win could also tell you a lot.  If Biden wins OH then I assume he’s won FL and maybe N.C. too along with the PA, MI and OH so it’s moot. 

If I'm betting $1,000 though...

I want the tipping point. The tipping point tells me that Biden either wins, or loses, the election. That's the reason for the bet, right?

PA comes closest to that definition. If Biden wins PA... Trump loses. If Biden loses PA, he ("likely?", "most likely"?) loses the election.

That's the state that tells me most who to place the $1,000 on.

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2 hours ago, chasfh said:

Devil’s Advocate asks, if that was the question, why didn’t they include it in the clip? And why did they cut off the reaction of the audience from the clip? Did people laugh? Did people gasp? How did the South Carolinians in the room respond to it? D.A. asks this because he’s always at least a little suspicious of closely edited clips.

Yeah, I would like to know the context as well.  It sounds like a conservative joke.  

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11 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

 

I agree he'd be a good leader for the Taliban.  How can we make it happen?

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good sign.  The shy Biden voters are becoming un-shy

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3 hours ago, chasfh said:

Devil’s Advocate asks, if that was the question, why didn’t they include it in the clip? And why did they cut off the reaction of the audience from the clip? Did people laugh? Did people gasp? How did the South Carolinians in the room respond to it? D.A. asks this because he’s always at least a little suspicious of closely edited clips.

Here's an article which fleshes it out a little more.

https://www.newsweek.com/lindsey-graham-south-carolina-young-black-jaime-harrison-1538026

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