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The 2020 Presidential Race

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Hacks on Tap believe that OH is slipping from Trump and urged investment by Biden and allied groups.   Internals revealed to Murphy indicate that Trump's losing the suburbs there too.  Now, the Appalachian parts of OH will be a lock for Orange man,  but no reason why Shaker Heights will be.

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Just now, Motown Bombers said:

One close poll in Florida means he's losing Michigan and Wisconsin that have had him with a sizeable lead. Whether Biden or Trump wins Florida, I will be at least Michigan and Wisconsin vote to the left of Florida. 

if trump wins florida, pennsylvania, and arizona, he wont need michigan or wisconsin to win.

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5 minutes ago, ROMAD1 said:

Hacks on Tap believe that OH is slipping from Trump and urged investment by Biden and allied groups.   Internals revealed to Murphy indicate that Trump's losing the suburbs there too.  Now, the Appalachian parts of OH will be a lock for Orange man,  but no reason why Shaker Heights will be.

I am hearing a much different story from my Dad's ear to the ground in Dayton suburbs.

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So here's Ron Brownstein, who's about as even keeled as they come, bringing up the improbability of Biden winning Maricopa by 13% while losing the state.

Just chill out.... put it in the average, and move on.

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Meanwhile, Monmouth shows a way too close for comfort race in Georgia for Trump.... 

I suspect we'll get a lot less bytes spent on this one.

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48 minutes ago, Buddha said:

i think im a lot more nervous about trump winning than most of you guys.  😟

People hate it when I bring it up, but HIllary was in the 80s less than a couple of weeks before November 8.

Yeah, I know, 2016 polling was primitive. It doesn't mean 2020 polling is airtight. There may still be things we don't know about 2020 polling in the same way that there were things we didn't know about 2016 polling.

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6 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

Meanwhile, Monmouth shows a way too close for comfort race in Georgia for Trump.... 

I suspect we'll get a lot less bytes spent on this one.

sure, because no one expects biden to win in georgia.  that poll just confirms what everyone already thinks.

biden has been polling ahead in floroda and arizona for a while now, so any poll showing him now losing those states is news.

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Just now, tiger337 said:

Why was 2016 polling primitive?  

Less pollsters weighting results for educational attainment. Most now do.

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29 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

I'm more concerned with Trump manipulating and/or stealing the election than him winning outright. 

I'm still not convinced he and his handlers didn't do this in 2016.

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15 minutes ago, Buddha said:

if trump wins florida, pennsylvania, and arizona, he wont need michigan or wisconsin to win.

hmmm

I thought he needed all of those to win.   Did he not need one of those in 2016?

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3 minutes ago, Buddha said:

sure, because no one expects biden to win in georgia.  that poll just confirms what everyone already thinks.

biden has been polling ahead in floroda and arizona for a while now, so any poll showing him now losing those states in news.

A poll that shows Biden within the MoE doesn't really confirm that Biden can't win Georgia. FWIW.

In any event, since you were discussing earlier how Florida would affect the results of other states, can you describe the world in which Biden is down 1 or down 2 with likely voters in a high turnout model in Georgia while losing Florida by 4?

Put it in the average and move on. Whether it's the ABC poll of Florida or the Monmouth poll of Georgia.

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28 minutes ago, Buddha said:

plenty of old white people.

This. There are lots of people like my 71 year old dad out there whose sole motivation in voting for Trump is their hatred of black people, Hispanics, Arabs, Muslims, Southeast Asians, Jews, etc. I used to ignorantly believe that people like my dad we such a minority of people that while they were out there, they in no way represented the true fabric of this country. Trump getting elected and still maintaining north of 40% approval ratings has proven me wrong. Racism, bigotry, xenophobia, and religion are some of the most powerful motivators you can have to turn a voter out for you because they are such deeply held beliefs that you can't pry people from.

My dad read the Bell Curve cover to cover and from that day forward he's rooted his racism in "empirical and scientific data". My dad has also never missed an election when it comes to voting. That's one reason why I worry about Arizona, Florida, Pennsylvania, and the midwest.

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3 minutes ago, ROMAD1 said:

 

the breaking news here is that Trump paid a vendor

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Just now, pfife said:

the breaking news here is that Trump paid a vendor

You type quicker.

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5 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

This. There are lots of people like my 71 year old dad out there whose sole motivation in voting for Trump is their hatred of black people, Hispanics, Arabs, Muslims, Southeast Asians, Jews, etc. I used to ignorantly believe that people like my dad we such a minority of people that while they were out there, they in no way represented the true fabric of this country. Trump getting elected and still maintaining north of 40% approval ratings has proven me wrong.

And yet poll after poll shows Biden doing better with old people than Hillary did. 

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9 minutes ago, pfife said:

hmmm

I thought he needed all of those to win.   Did he not need one of those in 2016?

 

Screenshot_20200923-102144_Chrome.jpg

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9 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

This. There are lots of people like my 71 year old dad out there whose sole motivation in voting for Trump is their hatred of black people, Hispanics, Arabs, Muslims, Southeast Asians, Jews, etc. I used to ignorantly believe that people like my dad we such a minority of people that while they were out there, they in no way represented the true fabric of this country. Trump getting elected and still maintaining north of 40% approval ratings has proven me wrong. Racism, bigotry, xenophobia, and religion are some of the most powerful motivators you can have to turn a voter out for you because they are such deeply held beliefs that you can't pry people from.

My dad read the Bell Curve cover to cover and from that day forward he's rooted his racism in "empirical and scientific data". My dad has also never missed an election when it comes to voting. That's why I worry about Arizona, Florida, Pennsylvania, and the midwest.

your dad read a 500 page book on genetics cover to cover?  that book contains very little information on race and genetics, its just what was hyped up in order to sell books.

so your dad thinks asians are the smartest race in the world because they score highest on iq tests?  that jews are smarter than "white people" because they continually score higher on iq tests?

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5 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

And yet poll after poll shows Biden doing better with old people than Hillary did. 

All I can say is that if people are going to fly off the handle every time there's an individual poll comes out that looks good for Trump, it's going to be a long 41 or so days.

This isn't to say he cannot win.... but polls should be aggregated for a reason.

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22 minutes ago, Buddha said:

your dad read a 500 page book on genetics cover to cover?  that book contains very little information on race and genetics, its just what was hyped up in order to sell books.

so your dad thinks asians are the smartest race in the world because they score highest on iq tests?  that jews are smarter than "white people" because they continually score higher on iq tests?

If you sat down and talked with my dad and had a lengthy conversation on race and intellegence he would no doubt at some point cite some junk "science or data" from Herrnstein or Murray. Yes, my dad thinks Asians are incredibly intellectual and often smarter as a whole. And while the average Trump supporter may have never read a thing by Richard Herrnstein or Charles Murray, they hold similar views as my dad. My dad just dresses up his racism to sound more sophisticated and would feel ashamed if you knew he was a racist. He wouldn't wear a red hat, but would cheer him on silently from his living room couch.

The broader point though is race, ethnicity/nationality, and religion are highly motivating factors for people to go out and vote. With Trump on the ballot the average racist boomer or Silent Gen person between 58-80 is going to come out in droves for this guy. The hope is the rest of those generations, who aren't like my father, can be peeled off for Biden and sink the SS Trump.

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