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The 2020 Presidential Race

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Cotton has his eyes set on something bigger...(2024)

Plus Moscow needs him in the Senate 

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36 minutes ago, CMRivdog said:

Cotton has his eyes set on something bigger...(2024)

Plus Moscow needs him in the Senate 

i also sent an email to donald trump withdrawing myself from candidacy for the supreme court.  lol

cotton is just keeping his name in the news for his presidential run in 4 years.

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Of note, the divergence between Florida Hispanics and SW Hispanics is becoming pretty stark... Biden hitting his marks in TX, running behind in Florida

 

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I like Nate Cohn, but he's wrong here... Beto way overperformed the polls in Texas, including in comparison with his poll, not to mention the misses at the House level

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2 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

 

Can you imaging how hard these senators in competitive districts must be scrambling to get polling on this? 😲

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19 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

I like Nate Cohn, but he's wrong here... Beto way overperformed the polls in Texas, including in comparison with his poll, not to mention the misses at the House level

Beto ticking me off again spamming my text messages with his PxP PAC.   

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I’m 75% certain that whoever Trump picks will be confirmed.  The vote will take place after the election, even if Trump loses.  The lame duck senate will confirm.  All these “bubble” R senators, win or lose, will confirm.  What do they have to lose by confirming?  McConnell won’t have the vote before Election Day.  That puts too much pressure on them.  Have if after.  If they win, they don’t have to worry because they have 6 more years.  If they lose... that will be their middle finger to those who didn’t vote for them. 

McConnell’s worst play would be to vote prior to EC. He will wait until after. 
 

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13 minutes ago, Oblong said:

I’m 75% certain that whoever Trump picks will be confirmed.  The vote will take place after the election, even if Trump loses.  The lame duck senate will confirm.  All these “bubble” R senators, win or lose, will confirm.  What do they have to lose by confirming?  McConnell won’t have the vote before Election Day.  That puts too much pressure on them.  Have if after.  If they win, they don’t have to worry because they have 6 more years.  If they lose... that will be their middle finger to those who didn’t vote for them. 

McConnell’s worst play would be to vote prior to EC. He will wait until after. 
 

Agreed. Although some of it is, at least theoretically, out of Mitch's hands. He still has to keep the caucus together.

My guess is that he doesn't have the votes for pre-election, but probably will after (although he'll lose a possible vote during the lame duck if Mark Kelly wins the AZ seat)

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14 minutes ago, Oblong said:

I’m 75% certain that whoever Trump picks will be confirmed.  The vote will take place after the election, even if Trump loses.  The lame duck senate will confirm.  All these “bubble” R senators, win or lose, will confirm.  What do they have to lose by confirming?  McConnell won’t have the vote before Election Day.  That puts too much pressure on them.  Have if after.  If they win, they don’t have to worry because they have 6 more years.  If they lose... that will be their middle finger to those who didn’t vote for them. 

McConnell’s worst play would be to vote prior to EC. He will wait until after. 
 

There's also 2022. Someone like Murkowski is up for re-election in 2022. Kavanaugh still hangs over the head of Susan Collins so this won't just disappear right away. 

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Probably Biden's best poll of the weekend, considering Trafalger's methodology

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1 hour ago, Motown Bombers said:

There's also 2022. Someone like Murkowski is up for re-election in 2022. Kavanaugh still hangs over the head of Susan Collins so this won't just disappear right away. 

I’m not worried about her.  She seemed pretty adamant.  I’m thinking of just those up this year. I’m not sure who is up in 2022 that could be wavering.  Grassley seemed like a sure thing but he’s ancient.  Let’s see them say that when faced with a president Biden and D senate majority in 2021.   

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3 minutes ago, Oblong said:

I’m not worried about her.  She seemed pretty adamant.  I’m thinking of just those up this year. I’m not sure who is up in 2022 that could be wavering.  Grassley seemed like a sure thing but he’s ancient.  Let’s see them say that when faced with a president trump and D senate majority in 2021.   

I think you will get Romney, along with Collins and Murkowski. 

That fourth vote is the toughest... theoretically, if Kelly wins in AZ and is seated prior to a confirmation vote, it helps. But that assumes that the other three don't change their tune post-election, and that the Dems even win the Senate back anyway.

Collins, in particular, I don't trust to hold to her position if Biden wins

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Biden strategy on the court.....he needs to do enough to persuade independents as well as keep the base excited. 
 

Quote

Here’s the case Biden will make: The new justice could have a deciding vote on protections for pre-existing conditions. 

  • Biden said in Philly today: "There is so much at stake — the right to health care, clean air and water, and equal pay for equal work. The rights of voters, immigrants, women and workers." 
  • The Biden campaign will coordinate closely with House and Senate Democratic leaders on how to link the Supreme Court fight to Trump's coronavirus response. 
  • Like House Democratic challengers in suburban seats in 2018, Biden will constantly remind voters that Trump's stated goal has always been to replace the Affordable Care Act. 

Don't forget: An Affordable Care Act case will be heard by the Supreme Court a week after the election. A decision is expected in June 2021.

Between the lines: Biden advisers view the court vacancy as a rare last-minute chance to get a second look from independents.

  • The campaign will use the coming fight to appeal and motivate younger voters who want to protect Roe v. Wade. 
  • "If you want something to fire up young people who weren’t all that interested this year, this is it,” John Anzalone, a Biden pollster, told the New York Times. 

The other side: Republicans see the court vacancy as a new chance to hold the Senate by juicing GOP turnout in states like North Carolina, where Sen. Thom Tillis has been trailing in public and private polls, officials tell Axios' Alayna Treene. 

  • Trumpworld now believes a fired-up Republican base diminishes Democrats' hopes of flipping Texas and Georgia. 
  • But nothing appears easier for Cory Gardner in Colorado or Susan Collins in Maine.

Republicans view the SCOTUS fight as a battle of the bases: They think they can demoralize Democrats, and depress turnout, if they quickly fill RBG's seat.

https://www.axios.com/newsletters/axios-sneak-peek-d9dd9b96-47a1-450f-9822-d607cec9a60f.html?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiossneakpeek&stream=top

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