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The 2020 Presidential Race

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1 minute ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

Yeah, a red senator in tight race in a blue or purple state, I can see the potential benefit of taking such stance, but there is the risk it pisses off Trumpy voters that were going to vote for her.

 

I could see moderate senators up for election in 2022 from purple states. Susan Collins has had a bullseye on her back ever since her Kavanaugh debacle. 

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2 minutes ago, Motor City Sonics said:

Thats not who she needs to win over to win re-election.  She needs moderates and independents.   

I hear that, but if the base abandons her the point is moot.

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2 minutes ago, Buddha said:

Collins is in trouble for supporting Trump - but not supporting him enough, not for backing Kavanuagh.

Her words justifying her support of Trump - that he's somehow "learned his lesson" ring hollow and fake to anyone who has been paying attention.

Maine is also a weird state.  You have 1/2 the state as liberal Massachusetts transplants and the other half as complete Trump loving bumpkins.  Collins is caught in the middle because the liberals hate her as a Trump *** kisser and the conservatives hate her as not kissing his *** enough.

She has no chance.  She's done.

She needed to pick a lane and stay in it.

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2 minutes ago, Buddha said:

Collins is in trouble for supporting Trump - but not supporting him enough, not for backing Kavanuagh.

The latest Maine polls (one this morning) Had her well below water on Kavanaugh... fwiw

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Susan Collins has been in the senate since 1996. Is her base really Trumpers? Maine has voted for Democrats on the same ticket as Collins. She's already losing so she needs to bring some Democrats to her side and taking part in ramming through a supreme court justice is not going to do it. 

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Regardless, it is not clear to me that taking a principled stand her necessarily helps her election odds.

I could definitely see it happening, though.

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1 minute ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

That is how I see it as well.

This opportunity is a wet dream, especially given long-term demographic shifts in the country do not favor republicans.

True, but I think the demographic argument in favor of Democrats is overplayed.  Hispanics and Asians will move right because they will either enter the middle class with conservative values (Hispanics) or enter the upper class as rich (Asian) and be natural breeding grounds for Republican politics.

It all remains to be seen if they can thread the needle on immigration.  That's the issue that divides them and keeps them from making any more ground with minorities.

If the Democrats keep moving left, it makes it easier for them.  Hispanics and Asians are more patriotic than your average white liberal Democrat.  And the Democratic left keeps doubling down on "America is a racist country that sucks."  I don't think that gains you Hispanic and Asian votes.  And it is always easier for Republicans to rally people behind the "let's get mad at lazy black people" meme.  If you don't think that works with Asians and Hispanics, then I think you should get out and meet more Asians and Hispanics.  But as long as the Republicans are all about the "keep all the brown people out of here" rhetoric, they put themselves in a bad position.

I think people might be surprised at how much of the hispanic vote goes for Trump this year.

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I suspect a vast majority of Republican voters want a conservative justice put through now.

It stands to reason most R senators would benefit on the approval side of their base if they facilitated that.

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1 minute ago, Buddha said:

True, but I think the demographic argument in favor of Democrats is overplayed.  Hispanics and Asians will move right because they will either enter the middle class with conservative values (Hispanics) or enter the upper class as rich (Asian) and be natural breeding grounds for Republican politics.

It all remains to be seen if they can thread the needle on immigration.  That's the issue that divides them and keeps them from making any more ground with minorities.

If the Democrats keep moving left, it makes it easier for them.  Hispanics and Asians are more patriotic than your average white liberal Democrat.  And the Democratic left keeps doubling down on "America is a racist country that sucks."  I don't think that gains you Hispanic and Asian votes.  And it is always easier for Republicans to rally people behind the "let's get mad at lazy black people" meme.  If you don't think that works with Asians and Hispanics, then I think you should get out and meet more Asians and Hispanics.  But as long as the Republicans are all about the "keep all the brown people out of here" rhetoric, they put themselves in a bad position.

I think people might be surprised at how much of the hispanic vote goes for Trump this year.

Flip side: are Republicans really going to thread the needle on immigration with those ham fists?

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1 minute ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

2020 is far different time than 1996, though, MB.

That's what I mean. Republicans in 1996 are probably even moderate Democrats today so I don't think her playing to Trumpers in a state that a Democrat is going to win the presidential election is good strategy. 

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4 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

Susan Collins has been in the senate since 1996. Is her base really Trumpers? Maine has voted for Democrats on the same ticket as Collins. She's already losing so she needs to bring some Democrats to her side and taking part in ramming through a supreme court justice is not going to do it. 

She's caught between a rock and a hard place. Even though she's from Northern Maine, her mandate comes from the moderates and indies in Southern Maine... and unfortunately for her, they are a lot less persuadable this year. And Kavanaugh is a factor in that

This isn't gonna help her, which then begs the question of, if she feels she's dead man walking, she just goes along with McConnell on this anyway 

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4 minutes ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

She needed to pick a lane and stay in it.

That's her problem.  She had this image as a moderate Republican, but the nature of her constituency changed from moderate Republican to Trump Republican.  Her image as a moderate Republican isn't what the Republican party of Maine - or most any state - wants any more.  They want a Trump Republican, not a moderate.  

She has no chance.

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Just now, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

Flip side: are Republicans really going to thread the needle on immigration with those ham fists?

No.  Which is why they will lose this year.

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2 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

She's caught between a rock and a hard place. Even though she's from Northern Maine, her mandate comes from the moderates and indies in Southern Maine... and unfortunately for her, they are a lot less persuadable this year.

This isn't gonna help her, which then begs the question of, if she feels she's dead man walking, she just goes along with McConnell on this anyway 

Or, if she is dead woman walking, she goes out on her own terms and sticks it in the craw of the party, especially if she thinks Trump / Trumpism killed her political career.

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1 minute ago, Buddha said:

That's her problem.  She had this image as a moderate Republican, but the nature of her constituency changed from moderate Republican to Trump Republican.  Her image as a moderate Republican isn't what the Republican party of Maine - or most any state - wants any more.  They want a Trump Republican, not a moderate.  

She has no chance.

Perhaps she should have just switched parties. She probably could have won as a moderate Democrat. 

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1 minute ago, mtutiger said:

She's caught between a rock and a hard place. Even though she's from Northern Maine, her mandate comes from the moderates and indies in Southern Maine... and unfortunately for her, they are a lot less persuadable this year.

This isn't gonna help her, which then begs the question of, if she feels she's dead man walking, she just goes along with McConnell on this anyway 

She knows she is going to lose.  She is a Republican party operative.

She is not going to abandon the party, that's her ticket to lucrative lobbying and other money making enterprises in the future.  If you think she wouldn't vote for a Republican justice, you're insane.

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Just now, Motown Bombers said:

Perhaps she should have just switched parties. She probably could have won as a moderate Democrat. 

No way she would have won.  The Democrats are going the other way and becoming more and more liberal.  

She's just done.  There is little place for Susan Collins and her "moderate" Republican politics now.

After a while old politicians just need to retire.  

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2 minutes ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

Well, that and their Corona response...

We'll see.  I think that might hurt Trump but won't kill them down ballot.

We shall see.

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Just now, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

She still has like a 50/50 shot.  She is hardly buried.

I think she's toast.

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Just now, Buddha said:

We'll see.  I think that might hurt Trump but won't kill them down ballot.

We shall see.

If it drives voter turnout, it very likely has negative down ballot implications for Republicans.

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Just now, Buddha said:

I think she's toast.

Polling suggests otherwise.

That written, she is probably the best R candidate to lose her seat.

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