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chasfh

The 2020 Presidential Race

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12 minutes ago, chasfh said:

If it were ever funny or cute, it's not anymore.

How do you handle that in debates?   "Donald, why do you think you are above the law?" 

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The debates will seal any doubt..... people are tired of it.

 

Election day... Biden will have slim to safe leads in all the states he needs.... and after all the votes are counted that will expand and maybe turn other states like FL or NC.

Trump will fizzle out.

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2 minutes ago, Oblong said:

The debates will seal any doubt..... people are tired of it.

 

Election day... Biden will have slim to safe leads in all the states he needs.... and after all the votes are counted that will expand and maybe turn other states like FL or NC.

Trump will fizzle out.

I think a lot of people are tired of fat white guys shouting and looking menacing.  Too much like Mississippi Burning for the 21st Century.

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18 minutes ago, ROMAD1 said:

How do you handle that in debates?   "Donald, why do you think you are above the law?" 

Too general. Biden needs to get a lot more specific than that.

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8 minutes ago, Oblong said:

The debates will seal any doubt..... people are tired of it.

 

Election day... Biden will have slim to safe leads in all the states he needs.... and after all the votes are counted that will expand and maybe turn other states like FL or NC.

Trump will fizzle out.

Florida counts their mail ins as they come. Florida may be the first state that gets called. If Biden wins Florida, it's all but over. 

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19 minutes ago, Oblong said:

The debates will seal any doubt..... people are tired of it.

 

Election day... Biden will have slim to safe leads in all the states he needs.... and after all the votes are counted that will expand and maybe turn other states like FL or NC.

Trump will fizzle out.

I don’t think the debates will move the needle much either way. Just for grins I’d love to see Biden do one of his great tough guy routines when Trump tries interject or comment. Just shut Donnie down quickly and then walk away,

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I'm not sure they will move the needle either but they are remaining opportunities for the tide to change so I'm dreading them.   I don't think debates are Biden's strong suit, and I also agree very strongly with something G2 said a while back, which is that they aren't at all reflective of anything that would measure quality as a president/potential president.   At this point they're just media spectacles.  

They're not my favorite things to see on the field when I'm trying to run out the clock.

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I was hoping Trump would cancel the debates. Then that would be on Trump. I believe he would have cancelled if Harris was debating because she would destroy him. Biden is not a good debater and Trump will literally say every lie imaginable. 

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40 minutes ago, ROMAD1 said:

How do you handle that in debates?   "Donald, why do you think you are above the law?" 

You can't handle it.  Trump will just make some stupid remark and make a goofy face.  We can just hope that people have tired of his act.  

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10 minutes ago, pfife said:

I'm not sure they will move the needle either but they are remaining opportunities for the tide to change so I'm dreading them.   I don't think debates are Biden's strong suit, and I also agree very strongly with something G2 said a while back, which is that they aren't at all reflective of anything that would measure quality as a president/potential president.   At this point they're just media spectacles.  

They're not my favorite things to see on the field when I'm trying to run out the clock.

I agree for the most part. They are a hurdle and at least a chance to shake up the race (although it remains to see what else will).

But a couple of things to keep in mind: the Trump Camp Pain has done a tremendous job of setting floor-level expectations with Biden that, I suspect, Biden will far exceed. Especially given that, from my understanding, the Biden campaign is preparing pretty seriously for them.

The other thing - David Axelrod, Mike Murphy and David Plouffe brought this up on their podcast recently - incumbents usually stumble pretty bad in the first debate because they have spent the last 3+ years not hearing the words "no" or "we can't do that" very much... I suspect that Trump, who by his own admission isn't preparing for the debates, will not be immune.

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I don't suspect the debates to move any needles because they don't have to be moved all that much.... the thumb is already on the scale for Biden.  I can't think of anything Biden could do, other than having a severe mental lapse, that would hurt him.  

I did some research on the 2016 election... more of a refresher, and I forgot how close it was at the time.  I had this thing in my head where she was up 5-7 points and it was in the bag.  She was unlikable and Trumps **** worked against that beause people were tired of the Clintons too.  Now they're tired of Trumps bull**** and Biden will come across as normal and non threatening. That's what people want and need now.

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One additional thing about Biden and his strengths or otherwise at debates:

Arguably his best debate during the primaries was his last one, which he pretty handily won over Sanders.... it may be possible that he just does better when he's one-on-one versus being on stage with eight other people.

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So Trump is going off air in Ohio and Iowa and Nevada.... but on air in Maine? 

 

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22 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

One additional thing about Biden and his strengths or otherwise at debates:

Arguably his best debate during the primaries was his last one, which he pretty handily won over Sanders.... it may be possible that he just does better when he's one-on-one versus being on stage with eight other people.

I have a feeling Bernie Sanders knew Biden was going to be the nominee and didn't want to beat him too badly. I don't think highly of Sanders debate skills either. 

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13 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

I have a feeling Bernie Sanders knew Biden was going to be the nominee and didn't want to beat him too badly. I don't think highly of Sanders debate skills either. 

I remember him going after Biden pretty hard... harder than what was expected anyway 

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My thing about Biden in the debates is that it seems possible for a Rick Perry-like moment could really reinforce things Trump says and I'd say Biden has better than average change of having a Rick Perry-like moment.  Also Trump will be trying to make it happen.

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1 minute ago, pfife said:

My thing about Biden in the debates is that it seems possible for a Rick Perry-like moment could really reinforce things Trump says and I'd say Biden has better than average change of having a Rick Perry-like moment.

I hope he hits Trump hard in his face.  

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1 minute ago, pfife said:

My thing about Biden in the debates is that it seems possible for a Rick Perry-like moment could really reinforce things Trump says and I'd say Biden has better than average change of having a Rick Perry-like moment.

By that same token... the expectations bar has been set really low. Lower than it should be, frankly.

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Just now, ROMAD1 said:

I hope he hits Trump hard in his face.  

so do I.   It seems like it should be pretty easy to do given Trump's record.   Honestly, if Biden read Trump's budget, and read an objective look at Trump's record, he'd win.

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4 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

I remember him going after Biden pretty hard... harder than what was expected anyway 

With Bernie it was a policy debate and Bernie Sanders isn't a liar who will say anything necessary to win. Trump will not even try to be close to the truth and will surely bring up Hunter Biden and go low road. 

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Just now, mtutiger said:

By that same token... the expectations bar has been set really low. Lower than it should be, frankly.

I agree, I think they've done that too but I just see a not-too-low-of-chance that it could result badly.

I also don't place much value in a potential outcome being a stronger biden lead which is the upshot of what you're talking about.   Maybe I'm begin too prevent-defense about it but I only see these as scoring opportunities for Trump (no pun intended but I will take credit for them).

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9 minutes ago, pfife said:

I also don't place much value in a potential outcome being a stronger biden lead which is the upshot of what you're talking about.   Maybe I'm begin too prevent-defense about it but I only see these as scoring opportunities for Trump (no pun intended but I will take credit for them).

It's definitely the last remaining opportunity for the trajectory of the race to change... and it's good to be worried about it.

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1 hour ago, Motown Bombers said:

I have a feeling Bernie Sanders knew Biden was going to be the nominee and didn't want to beat him too badly. I don't think highly of Sanders debate skills either. 

though political candidates debates are not won and lost by debating skill. It's a much more defuse set of overall personality projections than any of the logic presented. 

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49 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

With Bernie it was a policy debate and Bernie Sanders isn't a liar who will say anything necessary to win. Trump will not even try to be close to the truth and will surely bring up Hunter Biden and go low road. 

Sleepy Joe? Donald Trump is like a 3rd grader who has to make fun of other people to make himself feel better. And it works with his base. They must not be very bright.

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38 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

It's definitely the last remaining opportunity for the trajectory of the race to change... and it's good to be worried about it.

I don't agree. The Trump strategy is to find a way to not allow the mail in voting. He keeps screaming like Adolf that there's way too much cheating possible with mail in voting. With zero proof or evidence. And again, his base just eats up his 20,000+ lies as truth.

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