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The 2020 Presidential Race

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1 hour ago, ROMAD1 said:

more on veterans fleeing Trump

 

This was a really weird poll... Biden leading by 5, but losing by 10+ with both college and non college whites? I'm not sure how this is possible

I also found it off that Biden was leading by 6 in the battleground states but only 5 nationally... that would imply a smaller EC advantage than is currently assumed or modeled. But it's just one poll and I'm not sure which states are considered in that metric.

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Seeing political ad after political ad watching the Lions game. Almost like the politicians who bitched about athletes keeping politics out of sport can't keep politics out of sport.

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1 hour ago, mtutiger said:

Small sample size, but it's increasingly looking like Biden's struggles with Hispanics, to the extent they are happening, seem to weigh heavier in Florida than in states like Texas and Arizona

In most simplistic terms, Cuban Americans vote differently than Mexican Americans.

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12 minutes ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

Don't look for intellectual honesty in political arguments.  You generally don't find it.

Probably should have been an "/s" at the back end of my post. Because the lack of it is just shocking to me. /s

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40 minutes ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

In most simplistic terms, Cuban Americans vote differently than Mexican Americans.

Very true.

I also wonder if there are undecideds within that cohort that are coming home... the last few polls out of Texas (and this CBS one from AZ) are not as soft for Biden as some of the pre-convention polls were with Hispanics.

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11 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

Very true.

I also wonder if there are undecideds within that cohort that are coming home... the last few polls out of Texas (and this CBS one from AZ) are not as soft for Biden as some of the pre-convention polls were with Hispanics.

like that he didn't appear too scary and actually seems like a better human?

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1 hour ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

In most simplistic terms, Cuban Americans vote differently than Mexican Americans.

 

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Mexican Americans like education, so they go to night school and take Spanish and get a B.

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Solid piece by Astead here...

The emphasis on Minnesota by the Trump campaign is probably less driven by data and more the need to open up alternative paths to 270 in the event that an Arizona and/or North Carolina flips.

And prior to the three high quality Minnesota polls this week, the media seemed to be more than willing to accept their assessment of the competitiveness of the state at face value.

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15 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

Solid piece by Astead here...

The emphasis on Minnesota by the Trump campaign is probably less driven by data and more the need to open up alternative paths to 270 in the event that an Arizona and/or North Carolina flips.

And prior to the three high quality Minnesota polls this week, the media seemed to be more than willing to accept their assessment of the competitiveness of the state at face value.

I think it's more Minnesota was a state Hillary won and Trump felt he could have won it in 2016.

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46 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

I think it's more Minnesota was a state Hillary won and Trump felt he could have won it in 2016.

That's part of it too

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Regarding lawn signs... I spent like a half an hour looking for info on getting one for Biden and Harris.  It’s not easy. I can buy from their store for $25 for which I’d be happy to do but from reading comments people ordered almost a month ago and they still didn’t arrive   

local city based org says they don’t have them.  Order from the official site. My street alone has 6 trump signs. 

still no success   

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1 minute ago, Oblong said:

Regarding lawn signs... I spent like a half an hour looking for info on getting one for Biden and Harris.  It’s not easy. I can buy from their store for $25 for which I’d be happy to do but from reading comments people ordered almost a month ago and they still didn’t arrive   

local city based org says they don’t have them.  Order from the official site. My street alone has 6 trump signs. 

still no success   

I was reading somewhere that they have a pretty significant backlog of orders that they are working through...

More of them are starting to pop up in my suburban area, but still more Trump stuff on balance. Less Trump than 2016 tho

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15 minutes ago, Oblong said:

Regarding lawn signs... I spent like a half an hour looking for info on getting one for Biden and Harris.  It’s not easy. I can buy from their store for $25 for which I’d be happy to do but from reading comments people ordered almost a month ago and they still didn’t arrive   

local city based org says they don’t have them.  Order from the official site. My street alone has 6 trump signs. 

still no success   

We can't have one because my wife is a senior federal employee.  Meanwhile, the WH was used for multiple political events this cycle.

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I'm seeing so much free advice for Biden on twitter today.  He's not going to make every play in the playbook possible.  

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Random thought... the media has spent *weeks* talking about Minnesota and the chances of Trump flipping the state.

Meanwhile, Georgia and Texas are literally within the MOE depending on what model you look at. Yet no long diner pieces about those races 🤷‍♂️

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Because if those states are flipped then Biden clears 350 and there is no election drama, nothing to cover other than Trump's hissy fits.

The media wants to portray this as a close race to keep people interested.

There are 7 weeks left, and it can become close.

But it isn't particularly close now, so what else are they going to write about?

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