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The 2020 Presidential Race

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6 minutes ago, The Ronz said:

Woodward's book and Trump's own statements will not mean anything.

Ronz just said the quiet part out loud.

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I’d be more than okay with not holding debates. Honestly, who is on the fence about who they’re voting for?  

Only the networks want them. 

Can them.

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I guess we'll find out if he really can shoot anybody on 5th ave. He's literally admitting to killing thousands of people.

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Just now, smr-nj said:

I’d be more than okay with not holding debates. Honestly, who is on the fence about who they’re voting for?  

Only the networks want them. 

Can them.

The debates are going to be pointless. Trump will literally just say anything. He'll tell his followers the sky is orange and they'll believe him. 

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I'm about 98% sure The Ronz is correct on this.... but COVID is the number one issue in this country right now for voters, and its a recording of him, not anonymous sources (ie. The Atlantic story).

It's gonna be the biggest test since Ukraine in terms of how solid his numbers are. He'll probably pass it, but still worth keeping an eye on. And the bigger issue is that it's likely to harden those who are currently against him....

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I just saw a video that Frank Luntz did for BBC.  He's lost a lot of weight and kind of has an Ed Helms look to him.

I think he had a coronary or stroke or something minor but alerting and decided to stop having the extra impedimentia.

 

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14 minutes ago, ROMAD1 said:

My thesis, which I have been pushing for a long time, is that this cake is baked.

I agree with this 100%. There could no rational person who looks at this human garbage and says, gee, I have not made my mind up about voting for Trump yet.

Which is why "undecideds" scare me; they know who they are voting for, and most of them are voting for the racist idiot.

 

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1 hour ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

I guess I don't know what 'shy' Trump voter means.

 

Do I think a disproportionate number of Trump voters won't participate in a poll?

   - Sure, a decent percentage of voters simply do not wish to participate in a poll, and it is possible this preference to not participate skews towards Trump voters -> skewing the polls to under represent him.  I could buy that premise.

I don't know as that I would term that phenomenon (presuming it exists) as a shy voter, though.

 

Do I think there are individuals that agree to participate in a poll, buy lie about who they will vote for out of embarrassment?

     - I suppose it is possible, but very strongly suspect this a small number of individuals.  I doubt there are a significant number of people both willing to participate in a poll but too embarrassed to admit who they would vote for in a poll.

and with more polling being done online, the differential would rapidly become obvious, unless to you posit there are people too shy to tell cloud server they like Trump, which would really be a stretch. I mean after all, wouldn't they be too shy to tell the voting machine as well?

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If Trump does beat Biden, what will the political takeaway ultimately be and what will have been the reason for it happening? Biden was too liberal and moved too far to the left? Biden was perceived as soft on crime and the riots and unrest in big metro areas scared people into voting for Trump? Biden was a bad campaigner? People who say "but my 401k is doing great under Trump?" Coronavirus is a hoax and made to be a bigger deal than we were told? Trump "tells it like it is" and people respect that about him? There are more closet racist and sexist people out there in America than we ever thought existed? Some combination of all of the above?

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The only way Trump wins is if there's a serious suppression of votes or mistakes made in balloting.... if everyone who wants to vote actually votes and gets their votes counted accurately there's no way Trump wins.

 

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Because it's of interest on Wisconsin:

Little change in views on the protests post-Kenosha

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In all honesty, there will be people I know, or others only in passing, that I will never be able to look at the same way.  

And I don’t see my head or my heart ever being the same. It depresses me like you wouldn’t believe.

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25 minutes ago, smr-nj said:

In all honesty, there will be people I know, or others only in passing, that I will never be able to look at the same way.  

And I don’t see my head or my heart ever being the same. It depresses me like you wouldn’t believe.

I agree. I had a friend for over 15 years who was always a little crazy with his conspiracy theories. Sure enough, he's a firm believer in the Q-Anon. The strange thing is I always gave him a hard time about all his beliefs (the earth is flat, are you nuts?) and he was always good natured about it. I questioned his beliefs this time and he got very defensive. This was after he sent me an invitation to join their beliefs. No thanks.

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6 minutes ago, Sports_Freak said:

I agree. I had a friend for over 15 years who was always a little crazy with his conspiracy theories. Sure enough, he's a firm believer in the Q-Anon. The strange thing is I always gave him a hard time about all his beliefs (the earth is flat, are you nuts?) and he was always good natured about it. I questioned his beliefs this time and he got very defensive. This was after he sent me an invitation to join their beliefs. No thanks.

A brother of mine went from Art Bell, Alex Jones conspiranoiac to no-longer-Trump after he stopped smoking legal MJ for health reasons.

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1 hour ago, mtutiger said:

 

That's a very telling gap.  Which donor wants to pay for his sexual peccadilloes and hangers on wives and girlfriends?   Which donor wants to pay for a guy who is about to lose the military and veteran vote?

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Biden just now in warren identified that military COVID19 deaths are similar to military deaths in Afghanistan and Iraq (@~ 6k).  That's an interesting formulation.

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