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chasfh

The 2020 Presidential Race

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2 hours ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

Which are you talking about?

Didn't directly contemplate either when I posted, but I guess I was referring to unaided recall. I think the big lead all the way up through Monday is something most people wouldn't recall, but when reminded about it, they'd say, oh yeah, I guess it did happen like that, didn't it?

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People not happy the DOJ is working as Trump's lawyer given that he wasted all his other money.

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1 hour ago, mtutiger said:

Yeah there were a lot of polls that dropped this AM. 

Marist Florida notwistanding, polling has been decent lately for Joe.

I wonder how much the losers/suckers story had to do with that? I think Biden needs to find a way to keep that one in front of the electorate for the next eight weeks.

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40 minutes ago, Oblong said:

I guess I would rationalize it by saying those are different people.  There's the guy across from me with that replaced his US Flag with a Trump flag, has his truck decorated, and a yard sign.

Then there's someone like my MIL who will vote for him yet when the discussions come up she says things like "I don't like him either but...."  She won't put a yard sign up because nearly everyone she's friends with cant' stand the guy and won't vote for him.  

Right. The so-called "shy Trump" voter is not the same guy putting up yard signs and attending rallies.

There might be a third type who is saying, I don't like how Trump comes across, maybe it is time for a change ... but when they get into the booth at the moment of truth, they just can't pull the trigger for a lib radical like Joe, so they go with the devil they know.

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13 minutes ago, chasfh said:

I wonder how much the losers/suckers story had to do with that? I think Biden needs to find a way to keep that one in front of the electorate for the next eight weeks.

His white hot rage seems pretty organic

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23 minutes ago, ROMAD1 said:

People not happy the DOJ is working as Trump's lawyer given that he wasted all his other money.

Shouldn't it be an outrage that our tax dollars are being used to defend Donald Trump against criminal accusations of actions that took place while he was a private citizen? Why are we not hearing more of this angle?

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6 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Shouldn't it be an outrage that our tax dollars are being used to defend Donald Trump against criminal accusations of actions that took place while he was a private citizen? Why are we not hearing more of this angle?

Rule 47: Only conservatives can be concerned about fiscal irresponsibility.

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35 minutes ago, chasfh said:

There might be a third type who is saying, I don't like how Trump comes across, maybe it is time for a change ... but when they get into the booth at the moment of truth, they just can't pull the trigger for a lib radical like Joe, so they go with the devil they know.

Alternatively, maybe there are voters who think it's time for a change and will subsequently vote for one.

At the end of the day, speculation about Shy Trump voters is just that: speculation. It's not based on much of anything.... yet gets passed off as a given.

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I guess I don't know what 'shy' Trump voter means.

 

Do I think a disproportionate number of Trump voters won't participate in a poll?

   - A decent percentage of voters simply do not wish to participate in a poll, and it is possible this preference to not participate skews towards Trump voters -> skewing the polls to under represent him.  I could buy that premise.

I don't know as that I would term that phenomenon (presuming it exists) as a shy voter, though.

 

Do I think there are individuals that agree to participate in a poll, buy lie about who they will vote for out of embarrassment?

     - I suppose it is possible, but very strongly suspect this a small number of individuals.  I doubt there are a significant number of people both willing to participate in a poll but too embarrassed to admit who they would vote for in a poll.

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1 hour ago, Oblong said:

Then there's someone like my MIL who will vote for him yet when the discussions come up she says things like "I don't like him either but...."  She won't put a yard sign up because nearly everyone she's friends with cant' stand the guy and won't vote for him.  

Assuming your MIL lives in the suburbs (ie. less Trump friendly area), isn't the same dynamic something that could play out in, say, Northern Michigan, where Trump is more popular?

I can tell you right now that, even living in a suburb which is historically Republican but trending toward the Ds, I'm not going to advertise my views all that much because it's not worth the trouble.

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Why do we assume there are shy Trump voters and no shy Biden voters? What about those people who voted for McCain and Romney but are now voting for Biden? 

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Hacks on Tap today is jubilant.  They are discussing the pratfalls of the Trump campaign with Stephanie Cutter. 

Murphy emphasized how the Atlantic "losers, suckers" thing puts Trump on defense again for a news cycle.

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7 minutes ago, CMRivdog said:

 

 

A couple of thoughts: 

  • Campaigns must see the writing on the wall for New Hampshire
  • Really narrow focus for Trump ad purchases.... defensive buys in GA and NC, really targeting the Upper Midwest hard
  • Where's Pennsylvania? Surprised he's off air there.

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7 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

Wow.

This is bad. If knowingly having the lives of hundreds of thousands of lives lost due to your malfeasance won’t sink a campaign, nothing will. 

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Look, I don't know that this changes anything just because of how polarized we are.....

But why the **** did he think it was a good idea to go on record with Bob Woodward like this? It's the definition of insanity.

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6 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

Look, I don't know that this changes anything just because of how polarized we are.....

But why the **** did he think it was a good idea to go on record with Bob Woodward like this? It's the definition of insanity.

I can’t believe this is where we are. He can just say this in record, knowing there will be no consequences. I doubt this will move the needle at all, and that is completely insane. 

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JVL today

Quote

1. The Debates Won't Matter, Either

Yesterday we talked about the remarkable stability in the race that has existed since the first theoretical matchup polling began.

My thesis, which I have been pushing for a long time, is that this cake is baked.

Not just baked: It's baked, the icing is on it, its been put in a box, the box stuck in a freezer, and the frozen cake is now on truck making its way to your local supermarket.

What I'm talking about here isn't the result of the election. As I said yesterday, we live in a paradox where the election result is uncertain because we don't know how voting mechanics are going to be altered by the pandemic.

What I'm talking about is basic public opinion. People know Trump. They know Biden. They know which candidate they prefer. And they're highly unlikely to change their minds.

Three weeks from now we're all going to pretend that the outcome of the race hinges on the debates. That they're the defining moment of the campaign, the event which will pull all of the fence-sitters down to one side or the other.

I am skeptical that this will be the case.

For one thing: Historically, debates don't matter. They can sometimes move the needle for a few days, but afterward the race usually reverts to its steady state.

This is true even of the most one-sided debate victories. For example: In 2012, Mitt Romney cleaned Barack Obama's clock in the first debate. Didn't matter. In 2016, Hillary Clinton's first debate exposed Trump as being wholly unequal to the job of president. This isn't just my opinion. It was regarded at the time—even among his media defenders—as a knockout blow. The polls barely moved.

(The only real movement late in 2016 came after Jim Comey came out and torpedoed Clinton, which snapped the rubberband just enough to let Trump luck into his Electoral College victory.)

So let me predict what is going to happen at the debates: The usual suspects and their Russian allies will claim that Trump DESTROYED Biden and exposed Biden as being in need of eldercare. Most humans will have a more nuanced view, saying either that Trump won, or Biden won.

And the polls will not move, either way.

Think of it this way: If 200,000 dead Americans does not change your view of who to vote for in this election, then why would a two-hour television debate change it?

 

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