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The 2020 Presidential Race

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18 minutes ago, Oblong said:

I checked her account and she’s been active but mostly Econ stuff.  

interesting coincidence that this story breaks the week she leaves the WH. Is she one of the  sources?

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meanwhile - Rasmussen doubles down on their 'skew'. Another set of polls double digits to the red side of anyone else. When this election is over they are either going to have people beating down their doors with business, or they will be locking them up after having emptied out the offices and sold the furniture.

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8 hours ago, Gehringer_2 said:

meanwhile - Rasmussen doubles down on their 'skew'. Another set of polls double digits to the red side of anyone else. When this election is over they are either going to have people beating down their doors with business, or they will be locking them up after having emptied out the offices and sold the furniture.

they will always have a business model for propaganda

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So 538 put up a rather lengthy podcast about their election modelling and I wanted to summarize some interesting (to me) points:

a. Pennsylvania is their expected tipping point state in the 2020 election.  Biden is up 4.5% there versus 7.4% nationally.

b. As such, Biden's true lead in the electoral college is much closer to 4.5% than 7.4%.  This is part of the reason why Biden only has a 70% chance to win per their model.  Historically a 7.4% lead nationally represents a larger lead in the projected tipping point state.

c. That difference (roughly 3%) is essentially the Republican advantage in the electoral college, though they made a point of pointing out a lot of that 'Republican advantage' is primarily due to dark blue (e.g. CA, NY, NJ) and mid / dark red states (e.g. TX, UT) becoming more blue over the past 15 years, as opposed to anything Republicans actively set out to do.  This elevates D performance in popular election, without impacting electoral college results because running up the score in CA/NY/NJ and making TX/UT a little closer without flipping it nets you nothing in the EC.

d. The EC advantage the Republicans hold can be illustrated by the model's predicted odds for a Biden win if he holds the following national (popular vote) advantage:

0-1% lead in the national poll translates to just a 6% chance for Biden to win the presidency

1-2% ... 22% chance Biden wins

2-3% ... 46% chance Biden wins (Hillary finished 2.2% in 2016 as a FYI)

3-4% ... 74% chance Biden wins

4-5% ... 89% chance Biden wins

5-6% ... 98% chance Biden wins

e. Nate indicated that if Biden had a 7.4% lead in national polling, as he does today, going into November 3, he would guess the model would have him at 95% chance to win or something.  That is because there is the possibility all polls are off by 2 - 2.5%, and that the true lead he holds is something closer to 5% - 5.5% rather than 7.4%.  Of course, the polling error could just as easily be the other way and Biden actually have a 9.5 - 10% lead -> no way he loses -> almost certainly a landslide.

f. Nate thinks debate performances and an/or an October surprise are the most likely events that could significantly impact the election.  Little evidence the party conventions or rioting/protesting have impacted the election results significantly so far.

g. Given the risk the polls could change over the next two months paired with the risk the polls are systemically off, Silver thinks a 7.4% advantage today is roughly equivalent to Biden's odds if he nets a low 3% advantage in the popular vote.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/videos/trump-has-an-electoral-college-advantage-again-this-cycle/

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Other Nate picks up on the Trump Campaign going dark in AZ.

I'm thinking its possible that Trump is going all in on PA/FL and banking on flipping one more in the Midwest 

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So with the all in on PA/FL strategery if you go by 2016 results and only flip, WI, AZ, and MI.... you get

269-269

 

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2 minutes ago, Oblong said:

So with the all in on PA/FL strategery if you go by 2016 results and only flip, WI, AZ, and MI.... you get

269-269

 

Just my theory, but if they are pulling back in Arizona, this is what they are playing for: 

Screenshot_20200905-144449_Chrome.jpg

I'm not saying it's smart or that they will be able to pull it off... but this might be the thought process

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Trump campaign event in Texas.  Not funny!  (Well, kinda funny.  I laughed.  Then felt bad about it.  Then learned nobody was hurt, so forgave myself.)

https://www.wfaa.com/article/news/local/texas/lake-travis-trump-boat-parade/269-ffc4056e-59d1-4ac6-8f98-285a82b4e62f?fbclid=IwAR08KSl6mDneUN_m4Yy-rgJ55r_n9Zj3CSLcrByqLD9AHpjkZIfKuxHpxI8

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3 minutes ago, Melody said:

Trump campaign event in Texas.  Not funny!  (Well, kinda funny.  I laughed.  Then felt bad about it.  Then learned nobody was hurt, so forgave myself.)

https://www.wfaa.com/article/news/local/texas/lake-travis-trump-boat-parade/269-ffc4056e-59d1-4ac6-8f98-285a82b4e62f?fbclid=IwAR08KSl6mDneUN_m4Yy-rgJ55r_n9Zj3CSLcrByqLD9AHpjkZIfKuxHpxI8

Yeah, just saw and shared that.... it's just too on the nose to help laughing at, but glad no one appears hurt

  • Haha 1

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16 hours ago, Gehringer_2 said:

interesting coincidence that this story breaks the week she leaves the WH. Is she one of the  sources?

Maybe she and george played an epic game of monopoly and the loser had to “flip”?

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50 minutes ago, Oblong said:

Maybe she and george played an epic game of monopoly and the loser had to “flip”?

I think she might be a source.

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1 hour ago, Melody said:

Trump campaign event in Texas.  Not funny!  (Well, kinda funny.  I laughed.  Then felt bad about it.  Then learned nobody was hurt, so forgave myself.)

https://www.wfaa.com/article/news/local/texas/lake-travis-trump-boat-parade/269-ffc4056e-59d1-4ac6-8f98-285a82b4e62f?fbclid=IwAR08KSl6mDneUN_m4Yy-rgJ55r_n9Zj3CSLcrByqLD9AHpjkZIfKuxHpxI8

I thought of it as a metaphor for the campaign 

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19 minutes ago, ROMAD1 said:

We are expecting him to talk at some point.

My guess is if Trump loses and decides to not accept the results and tries to overstay his time slot in the White House, it might not be too difficult to arrange for a military escort off of the premises.

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11 minutes ago, Casimir said:

My guess is if Trump loses and decides to not accept the results and tries to overstay his time slot in the White House, it might not be too difficult to arrange for a military escort off of the premises.

That's a given.  The Joint Chiefs already drew straws to see which one of them gets to drag Trump out and throw him onto the lawn.

  • Haha 1

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29 minutes ago, ROMAD1 said:

BTW, Nikki Haley can go sink a boat

FTFY

  • Haha 1

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