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The 2020 Presidential Race

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1 hour ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

I'd buy that for a dollar

Funniest scene:  early on, in the bathroom, the young hotshot exec makes an unflattering remark about Dick Jones.  Then the camera pans the room and stops at a pair of shoes visible behind the door of one of the stalls, and you just know who it is.

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Of course it’s a lie. 

But who in that group he’s addressing is going to fact check it?

No one. It becomes truth because he says so. Therefore, it works.

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I just never get this idea of having to be enthused to vote. It seems like a civil duty to me and I vote every election regardless of how enthusiastic I am of either candidate. 

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Axe and Murphy kept hammering on favorabilities on their pod, so it appears by that metric, the Convention may have been helpful

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15 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

I just never get this idea of having to be enthused to vote. It seems like a civil duty to me and I vote every election regardless of how enthusiastic I am of either candidate. 

I blame helicopter parenting. 

And I only say that half jokingly. If you raise a person to understand that someone else is always going to be there to fix things for them, what kind of motivation to be the one to take care of things themselves does that create? 

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13 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

 

Axe and Murphy kept hammering on favorabilities on their pod, so it appears by that metric, the Convention may have been helpful

the other theory is that 'bounces' are by nature ephemeral anyway and so are of limited value in predicting final outcomes. 

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5 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

the other theory is that 'bounces' are by nature ephemeral anyway and so are of limited value in predicting final outcomes. 

'Bounces' are usually discussed within the context of horserace numbers versus favorables, but point taken.

Part of the importance, tho, is to buttress against what's to come next week.

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17 hours ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

I also suspect that there is an assumed [in time], which, when added, reads:

"This is our moment [in time] to make hope and history rhyme."

This makes sense to me.  Not sure if it's supposed to.

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1 hour ago, Gehringer_2 said:

I blame helicopter parenting. 

And I only say that half jokingly. If you raise a person to understand that someone else is always going to be there to fix things for them, what kind of motivation to be the one to take care of things themselves does that create? 

As long as I have been alive there has been a positive correlation to a person's age (up to 70 or something) and their likelihood to vote.  So I tend to doubt it is due to helicopter parenting.

 

I suspect it has a lot more to do with younger people tend to be more idealistic.  Or perhaps more accurately older people have been knocked down by life enough times to better appreciate there are no perfect answers in life and there is no benefit to letting perfect being the enemy of good.

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5 hours ago, mtutiger said:

This is a flat out lie....

 

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49 minutes ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

As long as I have been alive there has been a positive correlation to a person's age (up to 70 or something) and their likelihood to vote.  So I tend to doubt it is due to helicopter parenting.

IDK, I think idealism can cut both ways. I guess one would have to break it down to:

 idealism = +enthusiasm

vs

idealistic dashed hope = +detachment.

Also to consider it more seriously I guess the shift in parenting probably probably started  even before the boomer generation was over.  It would be interesting to look back to the pre WWII data to see if there really is any shift or not.

EDIT: a quick look at a WIKI survey that goes back to '66 indicates for Congressional elections that even then the rate was low - 30%,  but it has dropped steadily 50% since then to 20%. So that's mixed bag I guess. I would have liked to see the 1972 Presidential broken out, the draft had young people charged up in a way that hasn't happened since.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Youth_vote_in_the_United_States#/media/File:Voting_Trends_by_Race_and_Age.jpg

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1 hour ago, Gehringer_2 said:

I blame helicopter parenting. 

And I only say that half jokingly. If you raise a person to understand that someone else is always going to be there to fix things for them, what kind of motivation to be the one to take care of things themselves does that create? 

Participating in elections could also mean that you think someone (the government) is going to fix things for you.  

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1 minute ago, tiger337 said:

Participating in elections could also mean that you think someone (the government) is going to fix things for you.  

Or more depressingly, people in a democracy no longer see the democracy as the extension of their *own* agency.

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51 minutes ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

I suspect it has a lot more to do with younger people tend to be more idealistic

I suppose the biggest single changes in the experience of youth since WWII are divorce and progressively smaller family size; fewer siblings and a larger proportion of 1st (and last) children. I have no clue how those might tie to voting behavior but I would guess they are the largest changes in socialization factors in recent history so probably are driving something somehow.

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2 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

I suppose the biggest single changes in the experience of youth since WWII are divorce and progressively smaller family size; fewer siblings and a larger proportion of 1st (and last) children. I have no clue how those might tie to voting behavior but I would guess they are the largest changes in socialization factors in recent history so probably are driving something somehow.

not rock and roll and the hula hoop?

:—)

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18 minutes ago, ROMAD1 said:

not rock and roll and the hula hoop?

:—)

Ma, Elvis' hips just stopped me cold from going to the polls!

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2 hours ago, mtutiger said:

'Bounces' are usually discussed within the context of horserace numbers versus favorables, but point taken.

Part of the importance, tho, is to buttress against what's to come next week.

IIRC, wasn't the 2016 GOP convention  kind of a bust both ratings and bounce wise?  Wonder if a convention with Trump in full control can be any 'better'

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9 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

IIRC, wasn't the 2016 GOP convention  kind of a bust both ratings and bounce wise?  Wonder if a convention with Trump in full control can be any 'better'

Trump got a bounce, can't remember how big tho.

I don't know that you'll see much of one this year for either side. Not only because of the nature of the event, but also that there are so few undecideds compared with previous elections. Morning Consult shows this in their comparison w/ 2016, with something like 10% more undecideds than this cycle

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Just now, mtutiger said:

but also that there are so few undecideds compared with previous elections 

Yup - that seem to be the lens through which everything has to be filtered this time around.

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The world was so much different pre-WW2 to now I don't know how much difference in voting patterns I would attribute to parenting.

****, a much larger percentage of possible first time voters then were married and parents themselves.

These first time voters were raised by women who themselves were raised when women didn't have a right to vote.  A decent percentage had parents who were forced to work as children and didn't have much formal education.

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57 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

Yup - that seem to be the lens through which everything has to be filtered this time around.

If I had to guess, that's a big reason why pundits are looking at that favorability number - Biden may be almost maxed out on support at this point, next step is to give people who are currently supportive a reason to vote for him and not just against Trump. Perhaps to reinforce the support he currently holds nationally.

To be clear, they did spend a lot of time on Trump... frankly, it's hard not to. But they did a pretty good job filling out Biden's biography, especially before the public gets to see the caricature that Trump will paint of him next week

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