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The 2020 Presidential Race

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6 hours ago, screwball said:

It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.”

Happily, it's now been a while since I took their nickels. 

The resource extraction business is a necessary evil,  but the very nature of the activity (where all gains are in a sense "ill-gotten") breeds/attracts bad citizenship.

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At some point, people are going to have to start taking this seriously.

I still think he wins, but I think a lot of the GOP folks seem way too dismissive of the pattern that the polling data keeps producing here.

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26 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

I still think he wins, but I think a lot of the GOP folks seem way too dismissive of the pattern that the polling data keeps producing here.

People on both sides don't trust polls after 2016, and I'd guess that Trumpers are the more distrustful of the bunch, choosing to believe whatever their bubble tells them.

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This is Stan's boy . . .

Quote

"40 Wall Street actually was the second-tallest building in downtown Manhattan, and it was actually, before the World Trade Center, was the tallest — and then, when they built the World Trade Center, it became known as the second tallest. And now it’s the tallest," 

 

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50 minutes ago, ROMAD1 said:

 

Or bend over backwards for Saudi Arabia.  

 

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Bolton is total garbage, but if it wasn't for him Trump would have the Taliban at Camp David right now on 9/11.  As MTU said earlier today...just another thing that Obama would had been destroyed for if he had done it.

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1 hour ago, Euphdude said:

People on both sides don't trust polls after 2016, and I'd guess that Trumpers are the more distrustful of the bunch, choosing to believe whatever their bubble tells them.

Strangely, the polls were fairly accurate in 2016.  They were misinterpreted deliberately or otherwise.  

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3 minutes ago, tiger337 said:

Strangely, the polls were fairly accurate in 2016.  They were misinterpreted deliberately or otherwise.  

They were more accurate with popular vote projections as opposed to Electoral College projections.

I expect to see pollsters to overcompensate to a degree in 2020.  There were unaccounted Trump voters in 2016 that are now well documented and will be accounted for in 2020 polling.

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The debate between the wings of the Dem Party in a nutshell.

A lot of it just comes down to where the median voter is.

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9 hours ago, Euphdude said:

They were more accurate with popular vote projections as opposed to Electoral College projections.

I expect to see pollsters to overcompensate to a degree in 2020.  There were unaccounted Trump voters in 2016 that are now well documented and will be accounted for in 2020 polling.

But all the key states that Trump narrowly won were predicted to be pretty close in the polls.  The media built this up as if the polls gave Trump no chance to win, but that's not true.  There was about a 20% - 25% chance of his winning based on the polls and those are not bad odds.   

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Mean voters sadly don't pay attention to policy and don't understand the nuts and bolts of government. If they did, Joe Biden's support would crater overnight. Average voters like to make "gut reaction" and emotional types of choices.

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I was reading the new state polling on Real Clear Politics today, which I find to be a better indicator than national polling at this point,  and New Hampshire is all over the map. One poll has Bernie in the lead, one with Biden, and another with Warren. I still hold to my belief that if Biden opens up with back-to-back loses in Iowa and New Hampshire he is in trouble long-term over the course of the primary.

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3 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

Mean voters sadly don't pay attention to policy and don't understand the nuts and bolts of government. If they did, Joe Biden's support would crater overnight. Average voters like to make "gut reaction" and emotional types of choices.

Ahh, yes... the voters who don't support my candidate are just stupid and don't understand things.

That's a solid pitch...

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12 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

Ahh, yes... the voters who don't support my candidate are just stupid and don't understand things.

That's a solid pitch...

Do you think the average Democratic primary voter, much less the average general election voter, knows that Biden wanted to make it harder for average folks who got into credit card debt to file bankruptcy? If they did know that, do you think they would support that legislation? How about taring down the barrier between financial institutions and traditional lending banks as Biden supported when he voted to replace Glass-Steegall with Gramm-Leach-Bliley? You get my point, so I am not going to rehash Biden's entire lousy voting record.

The average voter understands none of this. It isn't about saying they're stupid, it's just about pointing out a reality that exists. If the average voter dug into voting records, read policy white papers and briefs, logged onto think tank websites regularly, read scholarly research, etc. I highly doubt they would be for much of what Biden stood for up until he decided to run for President in 2019. Hence a cratering of his support if they did. If they did I believe they would likely see the "Working Class Joe" narrative for the BS that it is and see him as "Corporate Joe" instead.

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I'm not sure how else to interpret a comment about how all the things voters dont understand other than calling the voters stupid. Maybe try making the case without arrogantly talking about how you're right and they dont know anything... it's far more persuasive.

At the end of the day, most voters are out there trying to make a paycheck and trying to make ends meet. And they largely are not on board with Warren and Sanders on the biggest policy questions.

Nothing personal, just pointing out a reality that exists.

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But are they not on board with policies like Medicare For All because they took the time to compare it to Medicare For America, Medicare For More, etc. or are they not on board because they saw a right wing hatch ad on Fox News or on a Facebook banner? 

We're sitting here debating on a message board, it is not as if I am out on someone's porch trying to convince them to vote Dem. So I'm not tailoring my message to how someone, me or otherwise, would talk to an average voter.

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5 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

But are they not on board with policies like Medicare For All because they took the time to compare it to Medicare For America, Medicare For More, etc. or are they not on board because they saw a right wing hatch ad on Fox News or on a Facebook banner? 

I'm not on board with M4A. And I dont watch Fox News or get on FB much. FWIW.

The reality is that even well informed people sometimes can come to conclusions that one may not agree with. That's just life...

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On what is likely one of the biggest issues of the 2020 election cycle, M4A, people do support it so as long as they can keep their doctor. So they are with Sanders/Warren, if their doctor doesn't change.

 

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4 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

On what is likely one of the biggest issues of the 2020 election cycle, M4A, people do support it so as long as they can keep their doctor. So they are with Sanders/Warren, if their doctor doesn't change.

 

Perhaps a big reason why M4A isnt supported more broadly is because there is zero guarantee that people will actually be able to keep their doctor when that train leaves the station.

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9 hours ago, mtutiger said:

Perhaps a big reason why M4A isnt supported more broadly is because there is zero guarantee that people will actually be able to keep their doctor when that train leaves the station.

yup - and there is no way around it. It's exactly the same issue Obama hit with ACA. There may be absolutely nothing in a new system that mandates any particular doctor leave any particular patient, but you can rest assured that if reimbursement systems change, there will be massive realignments by physicians and established group practices both wrt where and who they practice to, which is will dislocate millions of people from their existing providers. There is no way to avoid that save to put everyl MDs into the military medical core where his work can be mandated - it's just not going to happen. The intelligent position is a public option with a gradual phases that incentivizes both doctors and patients to transition together an orderly way into the public reimbursement system.  You probably need to give it 10 yrs and then still expect maybe 30% of the population to remain with an insurer, and that shouldn't make anyone lose any sleep.

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Polls don't mean squat.  All part of the dog and pony show.  This was a guest post on one of the financial blogs I read daily.  Michael Hudson is considered by many as one of America's leading economists.  His resume is easily found, and he sure doesn't lean to the right.  He is spot on with this analysis.

Michael Hudson: Why We Need to Abolish the Democratic National Committee, Even if That Means Breaking Up the Democratic Party

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