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chasfh

The 2020 Presidential Race

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#DugoutDonald would be great to get trending. 

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I think we are overthinking this election anyway. This is where I would put it now:

In 2008 the GOP had just blown up the economy plus everyone had turned on the neo-cons. Most of blue voters were voting against that, plus Obama fired-up the AA vote for the once in history event. -so Big negative and positive voting energy for the Blues, Reds in disarray between economics and Palin choice. In 2012 the MAGAs hated that we had a Black president, but they didn't love the capitalist raider all that much ether so no particular energy. Obama did not/could not run all that progressive an Admin - esp around urban policy because apart from losing Congress in 2010, he was always afraid of being being cast as the "President of  Black America" - and they made the mistake of phasing in  ACA so slowly that all that was out there by 2012 was bad press, so a big drop off in Dem enthusiasm. Net result not much enthusiasm on either side, close election.. In 2016 the MAGA still hated Obama and the Dems but now Trump spoke their language in a way McCain and Romney never got close to. Meanwhile the Dems put up the candidate with the highest negatives in the entire democratic party. Big negative voting energy for the Reds, Some negative voting by Blues who saw the Trump future but mostly ennui for the Blues. Reds win with better negative energy.

2020? Negative energy for the Blues is sky high, even higher than 2008. The Reds still also hate the blues but Biden much less than Hillary or Obama and Trump's incompetence and failures have driven off that 5-8% of low intensity swing voters that gave him the election. The Reds will not be able to top 2016, which they will have to do to beat Biden. It will take a huge unforeseen turn of events to get Trump re-elected.

Under most scenarios highest negative energy side wins the election.

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41 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

It will take a huge unforeseen turn of events to get Trump re-elected.

You're absolutely right, but the scary part is so many thought Trump was unforeseen in 2016 and he still got elected.

And what unforseen turn of events are you thinking off.  Covid, murder hornets, Riots across the nation....any of those count?

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3 hours ago, Buddha said:

just as an aside, i worked on a case with some of the lawyers involved in the flint water case.  you may be surprised to know that the media narrative is mostly incorrect.

shocking, i know.

I spent a number of years in water treatment technology. Anyone, really anyone, who had ever been responsible for any kind of water system could have told you that exactly what happened is what was going to happen when they lowered the pH of the output water. Total rookie engineer kind of screw-up. Many municipal systems don't have to worry about low pH water because they use lime to soften it first. That drives the pH up (~9) to where whatever lead is in the system just stays put where it is and presents no potential exposure problem.

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2 hours ago, Buddha said:

just as an aside, i worked on a case with some of the lawyers involved in the flint water case.  you may be surprised to know that the media narrative is mostly incorrect.

shocking, i know.

Not sure how much you're comfortable sharing, but I find LeDuff as one of the most honest guys when it relates to Flint.  If you follow him, how far off am I based on your co-horts?

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1 hour ago, ewsieg said:

You're absolutely right, but the scary part is so many thought Trump was unforeseen in 2016 and he still got elected.

And what unforseen turn of events are you thinking off.  Covid, murder hornets, Riots across the nation....any of those count?

the thing with Trump however, is that most unforeseen events will just make him looks worse. He needs to hope for something unforeseen that can somehow make him look better. Since as Romad notes  -  there is no better Trump, that is hard to envision. It really means he's pretty much dependent on Biden self-destructing in some really serious way that could drive his negatives up into the range where Hillary Clinton's were. Something a lot bigger than slips of the tongue for instance

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2 hours ago, ewsieg said:

Not sure how much you're comfortable sharing, but I find LeDuff as one of the most honest guys when it relates to Flint.  If you follow him, how far off am I based on your co-horts?

charlie leduff?  

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19 killed this weekend in chicago.  thats a lot, even for us.

looting everywhere.  at least the reports that they let the animals out of the lincoln park zoo was wrong.  they looted a lot of stores in some of the trendier neighborhoods in town.  fortunately i cant afford to live there!

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2 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

 

Maybe these undeniable numbers will get Trump to change his tune and try to message better outside of MAGA. 
 

Who am I kidding.   He will never change.   Expect more people to get fired on his campaign staff.  

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7 minutes ago, Hongbit said:

Maybe these undeniable numbers will get Trump to change his tune and try to message better outside of MAGA. 
 

Who am I kidding.   He will never change.   Expect more people to get fired on his campaign staff.  

He'll just double down and try to suppress the vote.

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The police are playing too many violent video games.

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Armstrong Williams is on C-Span, and the moderator asked him how he thought COVID-19 & the riots would help Trump's reelection, and he went WAY out of his way to NOT say that these things were helping Trump.   Strange behavior.

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4 hours ago, Buddha said:

charlie leduff?  

Correct.

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1 hour ago, Hongbit said:

Maybe these undeniable numbers will get Trump to change his tune and try to message better outside of MAGA. 
 

Who am I kidding.   He will never change.   Expect more people to get fired on his campaign staff.  

The bet he knows is to double down. He'll get worse.

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Just now, Gehringer_2 said:

The bet he knows is to double down. He'll get worse.

He also doesn't realize that the public perception of him as a scared bully is becoming set in stone. 

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11 hours ago, Motown Bombers said:

Trump's idiocy will be what saves us.

 

The nation is burning harder than it has at any point in the past half century, and the President of the United States has nothing to say about it.

Let the implication of that sink in for a minute.

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It's because Trump's entire method is to frame every issue into a binary choice.  Him vs. Someone else.  Hillary, Comey, Sessions, Nancy, Mueller, Bezos, Schiff, China, WHO.... with the protests there is no single other entity, except this vague concept of Antifa which doesn't really represent anything except an ideal and most people participating in the protests have no idea what it is....

 

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1 minute ago, chasfh said:

The nation is burning harder than it has at any point in the past half century, and the President of the United States has nothing to say about it.

Let the implication of that sink in for a minute.

When the nation is in crisis, it's better to say nothing at all than to address the country in a tan suit.

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