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The 2020 Presidential Race

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2 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

Does Oakland County matter to Trump?

No because he's going to lose it anyways and has already proven he can win Michigan without it. He can still work the margins in Oakland County especially in the north. Michigan is going to come down to Macomb County.

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1 hour ago, Buddha said:

that's a good point, but i think these things tend to last a little longer than your normal news.

ferguson spawned the black lives matter movement and colin kapernick's protests and remained in the news cycle for months.  there will be more to this story: prosecutions, the cop's arrest, the political response in minnesota.  this will linger in the news cycle because of the actions to come.

I think the Kapernick story's legs were as much about the NFL though and the continuing issues around owner response. It was football news and so was reflected in the klieg lights of everything NFL. 

In 1967 the riots were big enough that we had a Presidential commission run hearings and write reports as part of the continuing focus. Unrest after police misconduct is so garden variety today that there is nothing more to say to keep any kind of conversation about it going (in fact you can find it all in the Kerner Commision report written 52 yrs ago). We are well past our Yoda realizations on this topic.. Either fix or do not fix, there is no (more) talk.

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3 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

No because he's going to lose it anyways and has already proven he can win Michigan without it. He can still work the margins in Oakland County especially in the north. Michigan is going to come down to Macomb County.

OK.

At the end of the day, we are having a discussion about what (if any) effect this will have on the suburbs. Apparently your experiences are the only ones that matter. Not really worth going any further on this.

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again, Trump has a record to defend.  It's not a good one.

He can tweet all he wants.   100k dead (and counting) - which is far and away the worst in the world by any meausure, as well as double digit unemployment.  And now he has another set of riots (in addition to C-ville) on his watch too, and he's on twitter encouraging more violence.   Oh and the largest mass shooting ever in this country on his watch.   And an attempt to steal millions of people's healthcare.   And a budget that takes 845b from Medicare.  And trillions in deficit spending.

Not to mention he's totally not likeable.   

And that's only what we know *now*, not what happens between now and then.   I'm struggling to see this mattering that much in that landscape.

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4 minutes ago, pfife said:

again, Trump has a record to defend.  It's not a good one.

He can tweet all he wants.   100k dead (and counting) - which is far and away the worst in the world by any meausure, as well as double digit unemployment.  And now he has another set of riots (in addition to C-ville) on his watch too, and he's on twitter encouraging more violence.   Oh and the largest mass shooting ever in this country on his watch.   And an attempt to steal millions of people's healthcare.   And a budget that takes 845b from Medicare.  And trillions in deficit spending.

Trump has already killed 70k through inaction and now he wants to start a race war.   Good strategy. 

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1 minute ago, mtutiger said:

OK.

At the end of the day, we are having a discussion about what (if any) effect this will have on the suburbs. Apparently your experiences are the only ones that matter. Not really worth going any further on this.

It's not my experiences, it's literally what happened. He won Michigan while losing Oakland County and winning Macomb County. We have seen a pattern that Trump does not care about anyone other than his base. He flipped cities like Sterling Heights and Clinton Township which handed him Michigan. Basically, Hillary won 696 south in 2016. Obama in 2012 won Hall Road south. Those voters in between 696 and Hall Road can be swayed. Yes, I do have experiences in a swing county that Trump is going to need. I live right on 696 between the black neighborhoods and the swing neighborhoods. Fear of Detroiters moving into the neighborhood is real. Using Minneapolis would be effective here.

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5 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

No because he's going to lose it anyways and has already proven he can win Michigan without it. He can still work the margins in Oakland County especially in the north. Michigan is going to come down to Macomb County.

This is true.  I'm in northern Macomb county now and the love for Trump is apparent driving down some of these back roads with sides of barns with hand-made Trump signs. 

The difference in 2016 was the voters that didn't want to publicly say they would vote for Trump, but once they got in the ballot box, they voted for him.  My hope in this area is that there are a lot of folks that publicly are saying they are for him, but when they get into the ballot box they secretly vote against him.

 

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9 minutes ago, pfife said:

again, Trump has a record to defend.  It's not a good one.

He can tweet all he wants.   100k dead (and counting) - which is far and away the worst in the world by any meausure, as well as double digit unemployment.  And now he has another set of riots (in addition to C-ville) on his watch too, and he's on twitter encouraging more violence.   Oh and the largest mass shooting ever in this country on his watch.   And an attempt to steal millions of people's healthcare.   And a budget that takes 845b from Medicare.  And trillions in deficit spending.

Not to mention he's totally not likeable.   

And that's only what we know *now*, not what happens between now and then.   I'm struggling to see this mattering that much in that landscape.

He's either resigned that he's losing and choosing to burn the place down as he goes, or he's not unhinged, but even more frightening, this is his strategy.  

I'm with you though, I don't see how a smoke screen is going to shield him from the economy.

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6 minutes ago, ewsieg said:

This is true.  I'm in northern Macomb county now and the love for Trump is apparent driving down some of these back roads with sides of barns with hand-made Trump signs. 

The difference in 2016 was the voters that didn't want to publicly say they would vote for Trump, but once they got in the ballot box, they voted for him.  My hope in this area is that there are a lot of folks that publicly are saying they are for him, but when they get into the ballot box they secretly vote against him.

 

Those areas are probably a lost cause. Democrats have 696 south locked down. That swath between 696 and Hall Road is critical. Democrats need to win back Sterling Heights and Clinton Township. Trump will use fear to keep them in the fold.

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7 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

Those areas are probably a lost cause. Democrats have 696 south locked down. That swath between 696 and Hall Road is critical. Democrats need to win back Sterling Heights and Clinton Township. Trump will use fear to keep them in the fold.

not the only scenario. There are two sides the equation - you can win MI 'south of 696' on turnout - the Dems have to cover all the bases.

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This is the kind of stuff that I think is helping fuel the flames as well.  Fox News reported on it, reported what the Police said about it, reported what CNN said about it, and reported that the Governor issued an apology "calling it unacceptable".

Nothing was factually wrong in their reporting. You can argue that you feel it should have received more attention, but in the reporting that was done, it was proper.  

 

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I think the Biden strategy since the pandemic has worked to perfection (the one black comment notwithstanding).  Keep him mostly out of the spotlight, have him make a few perfunctory appearances and let Trump do all the talking.  Those daily corona virus press conferences have been gold to the Democrats and the Never Trumpers.  It's been reflected in the poll numbers.  

They keep trying to throw **** at Biden, Hunter and the Ukraine, Tara Reade, and none of it seems to be sticking.  I literally know of no one who really loves Biden all that much, it's a Trump Hate vote. Would love to see Elizabeth Warren as VP,  but Kamala Harris is a strong choice as well.

The only way Trump is winning is through massive voter suppression/Russian interference like the last election.

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2 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

not the only scenario. There are two sides the equation - you can win MI 'south of 696' on turnout - the Dems have to cover all the bases.

That is true. The three cities in Macomb County with the lowest voter turnout were Eastpointe, Mt Clemens and Warren, all cities Hillary won. With the exception of Mt Clemens, all south of 696. Still, Sterling Heights and Clinton Township should be winnable. I don't want to get into a strategy of trying to get higher voter turnout in inner city Detroit as the only path to victory. 

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28 minutes ago, pfife said:

Trump: "I'm the law & order president"

Facts:

 

He has convinced people that this makes him a victim, not a criminal.

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2 minutes ago, ewsieg said:

 

This is the kind of stuff that I think is helping fuel the flames as well.  Fox News reported on it, reported what the Police said about it, reported what CNN said about it, and reported that the Governor issued an apology "calling it unacceptable".

Nothing was factually wrong in their reporting. You can argue that you feel it should have received more attention, but in the reporting that was done, it was proper.  

 

The point of the story is that the POC CNN reporter was arrested while he was completely cooperating and while it was blatantly obvious he was a reporter.  The police lied about what happened.  A white CNN reporter encountered something very similar, was treated politely and wasn't arrested.  This at a protest where people are protesting the murder of an innocent black man by a white police officer.  There aren't two sides to this story.  

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21 minutes ago, Kacie said:

I think the Biden strategy since the pandemic has worked to perfection (the one black comment notwithstanding).  Keep him mostly out of the spotlight, have him make a few perfunctory appearances and let Trump do all the talking.  Those daily corona virus press conferences have been gold to the Democrats and the Never Trumpers.  It's been reflected in the poll numbers.  

They keep trying to throw **** at Biden, Hunter and the Ukraine, Tara Reade, and none of it seems to be sticking.  I literally know of no one who really loves Biden all that much, it's a Trump Hate vote. Would love to see Elizabeth Warren as VP,  but Kamala Harris is a strong choice as well.

The only way Trump is winning is through massive voter suppression/Russian interference like the last election.

I don't necessarily like Bidens policies, but I really like Biden as a dude bro

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10 minutes ago, Kacie said:

I think the Biden strategy since the pandemic has worked to perfection (the one black comment notwithstanding).  Keep him mostly out of the spotlight, have him make a few perfunctory appearances and let Trump do all the talking.  Those daily corona virus press conferences have been gold to the Democrats and the Never Trumpers.  It's been reflected in the poll numbers.  

They keep trying to throw **** at Biden, Hunter and the Ukraine, Tara Reade, and none of it seems to be sticking.  I literally know of no one who really loves Biden all that much, it's a Trump Hate vote. Would love to see Elizabeth Warren as VP,  but Kamala Harris is a strong choice as well.

The only way Trump is winning is through massive voter suppression/Russian interference like the last election.

I think keeping Biden out of the spotlight has been perfect as well.  It forced attention on Covid and the response.  Which there are good things the federal gov't has done, but Trump in pure Trump fashion, forced the spotlight on himself and that allowed for issues to be tied to him.  His 'not my fault' game I think only strengthened that.

Biden is going to have to deal with Hunter again before this is over and rightfully so but it's not like anything new will be there. I'm not worried about Russian interference.  ****, due to Trump we might not have Twitter or Facebook for the Russians to use by the election!

I disagree on the nobody loves Biden comment.  I think the left loved how he filled his role under Obama.  Furthermore his occasional anger that comes out helps him with exactly that group MotownBombers is talking about.  White, middle of the road politically guy, that is pissed off at the perceived inability of government to do anything right and said @#$# it with Trump.  It gives them the ability to have another option that still speaks to their anger.

One other thing that could be huge.  The right wing media is having a field day trying to make Biden look like a bumbling old idiot.  They are lowering the bar on Biden as a result.  If he comes out towards the end, rather it be debates or just back on the stump doing speeches and he's at least coherent, all that backfires.  If he's the same politician we've known him to be, he looks amazing.

 

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6 minutes ago, ewsieg said:

One other thing that could be huge.  The right wing media is having a field day trying to make Biden look like a bumbling old idiot.  They are lowering the bar on Biden as a result.  If he comes out towards the end, rather it be debates or just back on the stump doing speeches and he's at least coherent, all that backfires.  If he's the same politician we've known him to be, he looks amazing.

And there's precedent for it backfiring in that so much of the hardcore online Bernie folks pushed this line prior to the final debate between Biden and Sanders... Biden not only won that debate on the merits, but he ended up really exceeding the floor level expectations that had been set.

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2 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

Interested to hear what he has to say....

yes

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There's nothing Fox News loves more than a bunch of black people causing trouble-somewhere else of course... their viewers in the heartland are in heaven right now.  They don't know how to use the netflix so they've been stuck with content for awhile.

 

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If Biden says anything other than basically, I'm horrified by the George Floyd situation,  the cops should be brought to justice, we need systemic change,I understand the anger of the black community, but abhor the violence,  just throw in the towel now.  It's basic stuff.  Trump is speaking after him at 2 (ish).  He will likely focus on the rioters, how terrible the Dem mayor and Governor are, gloss over the killing of George Floyd and will try unsuccessfully to offer condolences to the family.  

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