Jump to content

chasfh

The 2020 Presidential Race

Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, Motown Bombers said:

Tulsi is the most attractive candidate and she is the last candidate I would vote for.

Concur.   She's probably the only one of the D's I'd call athletic too. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

People should never vote for candidates based in attractiveness, but attractiveness will no doubt play a role especially for women candidates.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

They say Tom Dewey lost because enough women didn't want to vote for a man with a mustache.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I refuse to vote for anyone who weighs more than William Howard Taft

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Oblong said:

They say Tom Dewey lost because enough women didn't want to vote for a man with a mustache.

He needed to offer free mustache rides.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, screwball said:

I donated to Tulsi, and happy to have done so.

Gun to my head and forced to vote D she would get my vote.  Which is ironic since she probably wants to take that gun away so you couldn't put it to my head.  Well, she just lost a vote.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, screwball said:

I donated to Tulsi, and happy to have done so.

Figures. Donate to the one the Russians support. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, Deleterious said:

Gun to my head and forced to vote D she would get my vote.  Which is ironic since she probably wants to take that gun away so you couldn't put it to my head.  Well, she just lost a vote.

I don't agree with all her positions, but the most sane of the bunch.  We could do much worse, and no doubt will.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, Motown Bombers said:

Figures. Donate to the one the Russians support. 

I don't have stage 4 Russiaphobia.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, screwball said:

I don't have stage 4 Russiaphobia.

Distrusting the Russian Government =/= Dislike of Russians

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 hours ago, screwball said:

I don't have stage 4 Russiaphobia.

You should. The Russian government hacked an American presidential candidate's emails for the sole purpose of trying to influence an election. They are now supporting Tulsi who you now support. Someone who rants about how terrible everyone in the American government is, now supports the favorite candidate of the Russian government.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Motown Bombers said:

You should. The Russian government hacked an American presidential candidate's emails for the sole purpose of trying to influence an election. They are now supporting Tulsi who you now support. Someone who rants about how terrible everyone in the American government is, now supports the favorite candidate of the Russian government.

The cyber security specialist who threatened Frederic’s Whitfield over her mandatory vaccination plan is the height of irony.  Anti-vaccines crowd meets the bullhorn of Russian social media amplification.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 7/17/2019 at 9:01 AM, Motown Bombers said:

Tulsi is the most attractive candidate and she is the last candidate I would vote for.

I think both are attractive enough to intimidate Trump and that could be a plus.    

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, Motown Bombers said:

You should. The Russian government hacked an American presidential candidate's emails for the sole purpose of trying to influence an election. They are now supporting Tulsi who you now support. Someone who rants about how terrible everyone in the American government is, now supports the favorite candidate of the Russian government.

Image result for russia, russia russia

I remember when the entire board laughed at mitt romney for suggesting russia was a problem.....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 hours ago, ROMAD1 said:

The cyber security specialist who threatened Frederic’s Whitfield over her mandatory vaccination plan is the height of irony.  Anti-vaccines crowd meets the bullhorn of Russian social media amplification.  

sort of off topic for this particular thread but wanted to provide the link after reading it on my phone yesterday.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Some interesting analysis

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/how-trump-could-lose-5-million-votes-still-win-2020-n1031601

Simply put... the demographic trends for democrats are not as rosy as we might think because their voters are moving predominantly to states like CA and TX where votes matter the least.  That leaves states like MI, OH, and PA with aging demographics that favor Trump.  

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Oblong said:

Some interesting analysis

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/how-trump-could-lose-5-million-votes-still-win-2020-n1031601

Simply put... the demographic trends for democrats are not as rosy as we might think because their voters are moving predominantly to states like CA and TX where votes matter the least.  That leaves states like MI, OH, and PA with aging demographics that favor Trump.  

 

At the same time, that means states like Texas are starting to turn bluer. States like Arizona, that has a growing Hispanic population, are in play now. Lets not forget Florida. I don't see Trump taking all three of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Democrats can replace one of those states with Arizona or two of the three with Texas or Florida. That isn't even considering states like North Carolina and Georgia that are getting younger and more diverse.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

But until Texas actually flips blue it’s irrelevant.  Florida went red even in the blue wave of 2018.  The people from the red Midwest states are retiring to the gulf region.  And their Hispanics are not as blue.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Something occurred to me after seeing Frank Luntz tweet something to the effect of the Dems would need to run the table in the three states in order to win, otherwise Trump wins.

What occured is that something like Trump taking Wisconsin, losing the other two (MI/PA), and the Dems pulling it out by taking one of AZ/NC is a pretty underrated possibility. Like, not being considered enough by the pundits.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Oblong said:

But until Texas actually flips blue it’s irrelevant.  Florida went red even in the blue wave of 2018.  The people from the red Midwest states are retiring to the gulf region.  And their Hispanics are not as blue.  

If we are talking about the midterms, than it was a bloodbath for Republicans in Michigan. Even the two term incumbent Scott Walker lost Wisconsin. Obama carried Florida twice and Hillary lost by only 1%. You have an increase in Puerto Ricans and the Parkland generation being of age. A very winnable state. 

Texas is never going to flip if you never try. Democrats at least need to test the waters there in 2020 and start to build a base. Texas has very similar demographics as California. There's no reason why a Democrat can't take it. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, mtutiger said:

Something occurred to me after seeing Frank Luntz tweet something to the effect of the Dems would need to run the table in the three states in order to win, otherwise Trump wins.

What occured is that something like Trump taking Wisconsin, losing the other two (MI/PA), and the Dems pulling it out by taking one of AZ/NC is a pretty underrated possibility. Like, not being considered enough by the pundits.

I feel there is opportunity out west. Conservatism out west is different than the southern evangelical conservatism. Hillary didn't win many toss up states. The ones she did win outside of Kaine's Virginia, Nevada and Colorado, are western states. What about a state like Montana? Obama only lost it by 2% in 2008. The state has elected a Democratic governor and senator. Can someone like Biden be competitive there? Is it worth the resources for 3 electoral votes? 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

I feel there is opportunity out west. Conservatism out west is different than the southern evangelical conservatism. Hillary didn't win many toss up states. The ones she did win outside of Kaine's Virginia, Nevada and Colorado, are western states. What about a state like Montana? Obama only lost it by 2% in 2008. The state has elected a Democratic governor and senator. Can someone like Biden be competitive there? Is it worth the resources for 3 electoral votes? 

 

According to friends, Bozeman Montana is a billionaires' city.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Motown Bombers said:

I feel there is opportunity out west. Conservatism out west is different than the southern evangelical conservatism. Hillary didn't win many toss up states. The ones she did win outside of Kaine's Virginia, Nevada and Colorado, are western states. What about a state like Montana? Obama only lost it by 2% in 2008. The state has elected a Democratic governor and senator. Can someone like Biden be competitive there? Is it worth the resources for 3 electoral votes? 

 

Arizona is basically the perfect storm for the decline of the GOP in the Trump years. Paraphrasing Dave Wasserman from the Cook Report, its heavily suburban, it's very diverse, and it has a noticeable contingent of LDS folks who dont like Trump.

I think some of the other non-rust belt states are a bit of a reach, but I think Arizona can definitely flip under the right circumstances.

Regarding Montana, its attainable in a wave, but if they are winning MT, they are probably winning Texas as well.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I’ve done this before but will do again. 

Will anyone who didn’t vote for Trump in 2016 vote for him in 2020?  That’s the baseline. 

How many didn’t vote for him but couldn’t get themselves to vote for Hillary either ?   A lot.

How many voted for him but would have voted for a D that wasn’t Hillary?  A lot

How many younger people that don’t traditionally vote will vote this year because they want Trump out?  Remains to be seen

How many of Trumps angry white men voters died since 2016?

I go back and forth in all of this so I guess we just have to wait 6 months until we get a clearer picture of what the Dems will do.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


×
×
  • Create New...