Jump to content

chasfh

The 2020 Presidential Race

Recommended Posts


14 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

Same poll....

Still believe Biden is doing himself some good in Iowa. If he wins Iowa it should be his to lose. I've come to where I don't think Bernie can win even if Warren drops out and even if Bernie dropped out ( probability=0) Warren seems to have lost all momentum. Klobuchar literally needs Biden to keel over at a rally to have any shot.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

Still believe Biden is doing himself some good in Iowa. If he wins Iowa it should be his to lose. I've come to where I don't think Bernie can win even if Warren drops out and even if Bernie dropped out ( probability=0) Warren seems to have lost all momentum. Klobuchar literally needs Biden to keel over at a rally to have any shot.

Polling is still pretty fluid but Bernie is in a lot better shape than he has been to date.

I still think the latest CW (that winning IA/NH would carry over to SC) is a little too confident. Bernie still needs to do better with AA voters, particularly older ones, if he wants to win this thing, and I don't think it's a given that winning IA/NH would translate there.

The H2Hs are an issue for Bernie, though... losing IA by ~6 may translate enough nationally to winning the EC, but it's no guarantee.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

Polling is still pretty fluid but Bernie is in a lot better shape than he has been to date.

I still think the latest CW (that winning IA/NH would carry over to SC) is a little too confident. Bernie still needs to do better with AA voters, particularly older ones, if he wants to win this thing, and I don't think it's a given that winning IA/NH would translate there.

I think another problem for Bernie is that the better he polls the more the party establishment is going to coalesce against him - not necessarily because of his domestic 'socialism' (the 'scary' part to to moderates and fugitive repubs) but because of his foreign policy and general abrasiveness. I think you are beginning to see the rumblings from centrist democratic opinion writers. Plus I rate the odds of Buttigieg and/or Klobuchar dropping out (or at least doing the non-drop out drop out - going dormant until the convention) as higher than Warren dropping out - which gives Biden a chance to pick up more stranded moderates than Bernie will have to pick up stranded progressives. TBH - I don't see a lot of Warren's supporters going to Bernie anyway. The program may be similar at some levels, but the demo's and logic of a Warren supporter and Bernie supporter are different. Even given what I just wrote above, I have my doubts  they are actually splitting the same vote that much.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

I think another problem for Bernie is that the better he polls the more the party establishment is going to coalesce against him - not necessarily because of his domestic 'socialism' (the 'scary' part to to moderates and fugitive repubs) but because of his foreign policy and general abrasiveness. I think you are beginning to see the rumblings from centrist democratic opinion writers. Plus I rate the odds of Buttigieg and/or Klobuchar dropping out (or at least doing the non-drop out drop out - going dormant until the convention) as higher than Warren dropping out - which gives Biden a chance to pick up more stranded moderates than Bernie will have to pick up stranded progressives. TBH - I don't see a lot of Warren's supporters going to Bernie anyway. The program may be similar at some levels, but the demo's and logic of a Warren supporter and Bernie supporter are different. Even given what I just wrote above, I have my doubts  they are actually splitting the same vote that much.

This is interesting to ponder... she's in some ways a bridge between Sanders and Clinton, and I would imagine a decent chunk of her support comes from '16 Clinton supporters.

And I'd imagine this crowd would probably not be an automatic add to Sanders... polling has shown that her 2nd choice numbers do advantage Sanders, but not overwhelmingly 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It seems like a good thing that Iowa is a caucus.  The potential for Trump team mischief with this much lead time (e.g., a Tulsi surge)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

 polling has shown that her 2nd choice numbers do advantage Sanders, but not overwhelmingly 

and TBF, you  should total Warren's 2nd choices to all three moderates and compare that to her second choices for Bernie to get the more accurate sense of where her supporters are and would split when the decision comes down to Bernie vs one remaining centrist.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

and TBF, you  should total Warren's 2nd choices to all three moderates and compare that to her second choices for Bernie to get the more accurate sense of where her supporters are and would split when the decision comes down to Bernie vs one remaining centrist.

To your point, this will matter even more greatly in Iowa *if* she finishes under the 15% threshold. 

If she's above 15%, then you could easily get a situation where a Biden pulls it out with Amy and/or Pete second choice voters (depending on how they split up). If she's under 15%, then that may help balance out the second choice voters from any moderate candidates who finish below 15%

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
48 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

I think another problem for Bernie is that the better he polls the more the party establishment is going to coalesce against him - not necessarily because of his domestic 'socialism' (the 'scary' part to to moderates and fugitive repubs) but because of his foreign policy and general abrasiveness. I think you are beginning to see the rumblings from centrist democratic opinion writers. Plus I rate the odds of Buttigieg and/or Klobuchar dropping out (or at least doing the non-drop out drop out - going dormant until the convention) as higher than Warren dropping out - which gives Biden a chance to pick up more stranded moderates than Bernie will have to pick up stranded progressives. TBH - I don't see a lot of Warren's supporters going to Bernie anyway. The program may be similar at some levels, but the demo's and logic of a Warren supporter and Bernie supporter are different. Even given what I just wrote above, I have my doubts  they are actually splitting the same vote that much.

Sanders might seem abrasive to his peers, but I don't think he is viewed that way by the public.  I think his fans are viewed that way, but not him.    

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, tiger337 said:

Sanders might seem abrasive to his peers, but I don't think he is viewed that way by the public.  I think his fans are viewed that way, but not him.    

Maybe. It been a general rule of US politics that the majority US voters don't go for angry candidates. Now I guess you could say Trump disproves the rule, but I to me Trump is not as angry as a personality in public as Bernie. Trump is mean spirited in the worst way, but he is mostly pretty happy about being that way.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, Gehringer_2 said:

Maybe. It been a general rule of US politics that the majority US voters don't go for angry candidates. Now I guess you could say Trump disproves the rule, but I to me Trump is not as angry as a personality in public as Bernie. Trump is mean spirited in the worst way, but he is mostly pretty happy about being that way.

Are there any rules in US politics anymore?  Trump comes across as an emotionless sociopath to me.  It's all an act.  Sanders doesn't really sound angry to me.  None of them do really.  They all put on an act to a certain extent.  His class warfare stuff appeals too his followers.  He doesn't do better because this is a conservative country and he is viewed as a socialist. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

so, you offend the VFW...and you want to run as a Republican?

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, tiger337 said:

Are there any rules in US politics anymore?

IDK - we'll probably know better on the 1st Wed of November. ?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

Lots of new state and national polling data came out this weekend, all of it meaningless until votes are cast and tallied. One take away of many is that Sanders is up in Iowa, up by a sizable margin in New Hampshire, and performing poorly in a conservative state like Missouri with Biden conversely polling strong there. Nationally, Sanders is continuing to eat away at Biden's once double-digit lead in certain polling data.

Iowa: CBS/YouGov   Sanders +1

Sanders 26, Biden 25, Buttigieg 22, Warren 15, Klobuchar 7, Yang 1, Steyer 1, Gabbard 0, Bloomberg

Iowa: NYT/Siena College   Sanders +7

Sanders 25, Buttigieg 18, Biden 17, Warren 15, Klobuchar 8, Yang 3, Steyer 3, Gabbard 1, Bloomberg 1

New Hampshire: NBC/Merist University   Sanders +5

Sanders 22, Buttigieg 17, Biden 15, Warren 13, Klobuchar 10, Gabbard 6, Yang 5, Steyer 3, Booker, Bennet 1

New Hampshire: CNN/University of New Hampshire   Sanders +9

Sanders 25, Biden 16, Buttigieg 15, Warren 12, Klobuchar 6, Gabbard 5, Yang 5, Steyer 2, Booker, Bennet 0

Missouri: Missouri Scout   Biden +25

Biden 39, Bloomberg 14, Warren 9, Klobuchar 8, Sanders 7, Buttigieg 6, Yang 2, Steyer 1

Dem Nominee National Poll: ABC News/WaPo   Biden +12

Biden 34, Sanders 22, Warren 14, Bloomberg 7, Buttigieg 4, Yang 6, Klobuchar 4, Steyer 1, Gabbard 0, Bennet 2, Delaney 0

Dem Nominee National Poll: Fox News   Biden +3

Biden 26, Sanders 23, Warren 14, Bloomberg 10, Buttigieg 7, Yang 5, Klobuchar 3, Steyer 3, Gabbard 0, Bennet 0, Delaney 0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
30 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

The Iowa polling really is all over the map right now....

One irony in the impeachment process is that if pressure does reach a level sufficient to force the Senate into a full trail, that is a big boost for Biden as it keeps Warren and Sanders tied down in DC. Even if they don't get to 67 the process is going to keep hurting Trump to the degree it helps the Biden campaign. Of course that assumes that Biden remains the stronger challenger to Trump, but that remains a reasonable assumption.

And oddly enough, if the miracle happens and Trump is thrown out, it would completely scramble things. The electibility issue for the progressives would look much different and Warren and Sanders as sitting Democratic Senators would be the party heroes.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, mtutiger said:

The Iowa polling really is all over the map right now....

You have  to think there is some momentum with Biden and Sanders and a falling away of momentum for others.  That is what it feels like.  

If Sanders people act up like they won't support the eventual nominee I'd say the winnowing of the moderates towards Biden will increase. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, ROMAD1 said:

You have  to think there is some momentum with Biden and Sanders and a falling away of momentum for others.  That is what it feels like.  

If Sanders people act up like they won't support the eventual nominee I'd say the winnowing of the moderates towards Biden will increase. 

https://morningconsult.com/2020-democratic-primary/

They may be true, but if Warren drops out a large percentage of her supporters will go to Sanders as well. According to the latest Morning Consult poll which tracks second choice responses, 37% of Warren supporters said Sanders was their second choice and only 20% said Biden. So whatever bump Biden will get from Klobuchar or Mayor Pete dropping out, Sanders will also get a bump if/when Warren was to drop out.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If Sanders is the nominee Donald Trump will be re-elected... but oh well... at least the purists will have their way.  

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Oblong said:

If Sanders is the nominee Donald Trump will be re-elected... but oh well... at least the purists will have their way.  

 

is this not what all Dems say about the Dem candidate who not their candidate?

If Biden is the candidate, then

If Bernie the candidate, then

If Warren is the candidate, then

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Oblong said:

If Sanders is the nominee Donald Trump will be re-elected... but oh well... at least the purists will have their way.  

 

Love how you state this as fact, when the polling does not reflect this at all.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Turns out Bernie Sanders is on record saying we need more jails. Funny when the Bernie Bros attack Biden for the crime bill.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


×
×
  • Create New...