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The 2020 Presidential Race

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1 minute ago, Gehringer_2 said:

Yup. By the numbers there are more Dems that repubs - all they have to do is show up.

Trump won Michigan by 10,000 votes. Wayne County had over 70,000 fewer votes in 2016 vs 2012. I cannot imagine Trump turnout in 2020 in Michigan will be higher than in 2016. Really have to hit Detroit hard and get them out to the polls.

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30 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

I still keep coming back to this.... especially on the topic of who will turnout for what candidate.

the other interesting thing here is the disconnect between the survey and the actual vote:

2004:  55.7% (of voting age public that voted)

2008: 58.2%

2012: 54.9%

2016: 55.7%

The correlation between enthusiasm and actually voting appears pretty small. Though one thing the aggregate numbers I have here don't show is that enthusiasm may follow voting much closer if you break it down by party. IOW, in an election when Dems are enthusiastic they vote but the GOP voters may be less so and not vote and vice versa.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voter_turnout_in_the_United_States_presidential_elections

 

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1 hour ago, Gehringer_2 said:

a lot of them believe they are getting back their own money - poor fools.

Particularly when they are one knee or hip replacement surgery away from wiping out all of their contributions to Medicare and they thus become "moochers" or "welfare recipients"

Maybe a bad example as my wife tells me, as a therapist, they get those people out of the hospital pretty quick now.  Point is, one major medical procedure takes care of what you put into it.

 

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I knew someone who is a hardcore Trumper. Always whining about people collecting welfare. Her husband, meanwhile, has been collecting disability for about 10 years for a bad back. She goes on Facebook and starts posting pictures of him running in the Detroit marathon and the Free Press article that mentions him. I comment on Facebook about how someone too disabled to work collecting disability benefits can run a marathon and she promptly unfriends me. I decided to email the Free Press if they wanted to look into it and nothing ever came of it.

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2 hours ago, 313DetroitCity said:

One of the worst things Bernie and others did was label themselves Democratic Socialists. The average person hardly understand what socialism is, but think it is a scary concept of the government killing you in camps and taking all of your property away. The "Democratic" part is entirely lost on them and the nuance isn't there.

I agree that was a poor choice of terms.  

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I am never enthusiastic about voting.  It's mostly a pain.  I do it because I think it's important to participate in our democracy.  

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16 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

I knew someone who is a hardcore Trumper. Always whining about people collecting welfare. Her husband, meanwhile, has been collecting disability for about 10 years for a bad back. She goes on Facebook and starts posting pictures of him running in the Detroit marathon and the Free Press article that mentions him. I comment on Facebook about how someone too disabled to work collecting disability benefits can run a marathon and she promptly unfriends me. I decided to email the Free Press if they wanted to look into it and nothing ever came of it.

I know someone who runs the half each year, and the full 2 years ago, on SSI.  His disability is for mental issues.  He's what you might call "slow", autistic like things.  I know him... he can't really hold a job effectively.  But he can run. For runs longer than 3 miles, or those that involve a lot of turns, like in the city, he'll have friends with him directing him. 

It's really sweet because I think the running community is his only outlet in life.  Everyone is very nice to him and accommodating.  Some got together and donated money for winter running gear.  

But that doesn't negate your point if his issue is physical.    I know someone on SSI for "back issues" that consistently rides her motorcycle to FL.  I just wanted to share this guy's story.  

 

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12 minutes ago, tiger337 said:

I am never enthusiastic about voting.  It's mostly a pain.  I do it because I think it's important to participate in our democracy.  

I always make a spreadsheet of the states with their EC votes to print out and keep score while watching the returns.  I love that side of it. 

The other day I realized that out of 7 presidential elections my vote only won 3 times, and 2 of those were Dubya, which were races weren't immediately known.  I believe Kerry conceded the following day in 2004.

 

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9 minutes ago, Oblong said:

I always make a spreadsheet of the states with their EC votes to print out and keep score while watching the returns.  I love that side of it. 

The other day I realized that out of 7 presidential elections my vote only won 3 times, and 2 of those were Dubya, which were races weren't immediately known.  I believe Kerry conceded the following day in 2004.

 

I take the day after the election off so I can stay up if I need to see the returns. I remember in 2008 when Ohio was called for Obama but polls were still open on the west coast so they couldn't officially call the presidency for Obama, I had to convince my mom that Obama won and McCain was not going to win California.

I'm currently 2 for 4.

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5 minutes ago, Oblong said:

interesting thread 

I'm on the Warren/Sanders side ideological wise and they have my thoughts about Bernie Sanders down verbatim.

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3 hours ago, pfife said:

The ads write themselves... Hopefully

 

This needs to be blared at full blast... daily.

"Trump wants to pay for HIS Tax Cuts by STRIPPING YOUR SOCIAL SECURITY and MEDICARE by $1 TRILLION. Do you HEAR ME?"

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35 minutes ago, smr-nj said:

Bottom line:

 

 

97840524-1B13-4A38-8C70-ABA685D8C2BD.jpeg

That is what I generally do.  The president (any president) has near zero impact on my life, but I know others who are less fortunate and there may come a day where I need help too.  

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1 hour ago, 84 Lives!!! said:

This needs to be blared at full blast... daily.

"Trump wants to pay for HIS Tax Cuts by STRIPPING YOUR SOCIAL SECURITY and MEDICARE by $1 TRILLION. Do you HEAR ME?"

We shall see, no one misses opportunities like the Democrats.

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49 minutes ago, smr-nj said:

Bottom line:

 

 

97840524-1B13-4A38-8C70-ABA685D8C2BD.jpeg

I really like that.  

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18 hours ago, Oblong said:

interesting thread 

So her family is homophobic and anti-Semitic or it just so happens they won't vote for the gay person and Jewish person in the race?

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3 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

So her family is homophobic and anti-Semitic or it just so happens they won't vote for the gay person and Jewish person in the race?

You could read the thread to find out their reasons. 

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21 hours ago, Motown Bombers said:

Trump won Michigan by 10,000 votes. Wayne County had over 70,000 fewer votes in 2016 vs 2012. I cannot imagine Trump turnout in 2020 in Michigan will be higher than in 2016. Really have to hit Detroit hard and get them out to the polls.

Having worked for the MDP in 2018 there was an enormous focus on Detroit, even predating the 2018 election. In 2017 the MDP launched what they called "Project 83" where they hired a dozen organizers and sent them to all 83 counties in Michigan. They had them start recruiting volunteers and door knocking a year and a half before the 2018 midterms. Detroit was a huge focus of Project 83 and once we got within the 6 month mark there were two campaign offices in Detroit staffed with two Field Organizers a piece. Additionally, the Whitmer campaign had two field offices of its own (one off of McNichols and the other off of Livernois) during the primary. There were tens-of-millions of dollars invested into the MDP and the Project 83/GOTV efforts for 2018.

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9 minutes ago, Shelton said:

You could read the thread to find out their reasons. 

They can give all the reasons they want, but it creates a bad look on their part when they'll only vote for the straight, white candidates and are either a maybe or a no on everyone else. When I hear about lifelong Republicans who voted for Trump in 2016 but won't vote for a Jewish or gay man I can't help but stereotype them and think why that might be. I'm not implying these people were marching with tiki torches saying "Jews will not replace us" but these people likely knew full well the bating that Trump and his surrogates did around anyone not like them (i.e. straight and white).

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