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The 2020 Presidential Race

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1 minute ago, tiger337 said:

Obama had something similar happen:

trump-obama-approval-ratings-infographic

Trump garnered 46% of the vote.  He had 46% approval ratings for about 90 days into his presidency.

I don't think it is a coincidence and I also think he was divisive enough that I don't think he gained that much support after being elected.

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3 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

Or Stevens / Slotkin in Michigan, or Allred / Fletcher in Texas, or Underwood / Casten in Illinois, or Rouda / Cisneros in California, or........................

 

Slotkin no, but Stevens potentially. I believe had he been President in 2018 he's potentially publicly endorsing Fayrouz Saad in that primary race.

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3 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

Slotkin no, but Stevens potentially. I believe had he been President in 2018 he's potentially publicly endorsing Fayrouz Saad in that race.

And Saad very well could have lost because I'm guessing he wasn't as good a fit as a Haley Stevens was.

There are races you can point in from 2018 (ie. NE-2, PA-1 come to mind) where the more left-wing challenger won a primary than then turned around and lost winnable races. Tailor made suburban districts that more mainstream candidates would have won. Seems plausible that this could have happened elsewhere with different nominees.

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I'm not saying it would work, I'm just saying that if anyone was to do it, Sanders is the type of person that would.

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8 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

yeah - This is the 700 gorilla in the corner for both Bernie and Biden. I don't care if they put the best person in world in as VP,  a president in failing health is not a good thing for the country. The examples of Wilson, Reagan and Roosevelt are pretty clear on this. Biggest reason I can't support either for the nomination.

Kind of amazing that Bernie Sanders is closer to Jimmy Carter's age than Obama. Trump is the second oldest living president and Sanders/Biden would then replace him. How did we end up getting so old? I also think it's a given Biden is one and done and more of a janitor president. Sanders is trying to lead a progressive movement at 80 years old.

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Just now, Mr.TaterSalad said:

I'm not saying it would work.....

What is the point if it doesn't work then?

For better or worse, the Democratic Party needs to run candidates in races that can win, not that purely check an ideological box.

Lipiniski? Sure, that's a winnable race with someone like Marie Newman (who is still fairly mainstream). But running DSA candidates in suburban districts for purely ideological reasons? That's when you start getting the Democratic versions of Christine O'Donnell and Sharron Angle races IMO.

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A Sanders presidency wouldn't provide much change... they are not dictators.  Saying you want something is not the same thing as Congress passing the bills that you sign.

A POTUS on the fringe, even in perception, often leads to congress going the other way 2 years in.... 

 

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3 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

What is the point if it doesn't work then?

For better or worse, the Democratic Party needs to run candidates in races that can win, not that purely check an ideological box.

Lipiniski? Sure, that's a winnable race with someone like Marie Newman (who is still fairly mainstream). But running DSA candidates in suburban districts for purely ideological reasons? That's when you start getting the Democratic versions of Christine O'Donnell and Sharron Angle races IMO.

After Trump, I feel like O'Donnell and Angle could win races today.

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5 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

Kind of amazing that Bernie Sanders is closer to Jimmy Carter's age than Obama. Trump is the second oldest living president and Sanders/Biden would then replace him. How did we end up getting so old? I also think it's a given Biden is one and done and more of a janitor president. Sanders is trying to lead a progressive movement at 80 years old.

Not enough GenX'ers in politics I guess.

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2 minutes ago, Oblong said:

A Sanders presidency wouldn't provide much change... they are not dictators.  Saying you want something is not the same thing as Congress passing the bills that you sign.

A POTUS on the fringe, even in perception, often leads to congress going the other way 2 years in.... 

 

I note you added 'in perception' as Obama was certainly not on anyone's fringe yet was depicted that way. But the opposition is going to do that to anyone aren't they? So what difference does the reality make in that regard?

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9 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

Kind of amazing that Bernie Sanders is closer to Jimmy Carter's age than Obama. Trump is the second oldest living president and Sanders/Biden would then replace him. How did we end up getting so old? I also think it's a given Biden is one and done and more of a janitor president. Sanders is trying to lead a progressive movement at 80 years old.

He likes to be called custodian.  

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8 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

I note you added 'in perception' as Obama was certainly not on anyone's fringe yet was depicted that way. But the opposition is going to do that to anyone aren't they? So what difference does the reality make in that regard?

Wouldn't it be better to not basically confirm the spin?

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4 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

Wouldn't it be better to not basically confirm the spin?

since when to facts matter at Fox?  Ingraham, Linbaugh, Hannity et al are still there the day after Trump loses.

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I think whether the spin is confirmed or not is totally out of the control of the Democrats.

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6 minutes ago, pfife said:

I think whether the spin is confirmed or not is totally out of the control of the Democrats.

Fair point.

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MTU, I think your argument cuts two ways..... it may not be beneficial to confirm the spin, but it also could be a missed opportunity to exploit the inevitable spin.   What I mean is, if we're going to take heat by being called socialist.... why not actually be socialist, if that's what you want?

 

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45 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

Wouldn't it be better to not basically confirm the spin?

That is the interesting political calculation. Maybe it divides by audience. Maybe you are better off confirming the spin to the left and not worrying about the spin on the right you can't control anyway? Not necessarily arguing that but you have to consider the possibility. 

Obama actually didn't do a very good job of messaging to his own side and you can see that enthusiasm for him waned during his 1st term. It was only when the prospect of the alternative began to emerge in 2016 that his approval rating climbed back up to high levels. Didn't do him or the Dems much good at that point!

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29 minutes ago, pfife said:

MTU, I think your argument cuts two ways..... it may not be beneficial to confirm the spin, but it also could be a missed opportunity to exploit the inevitable spin.   What I mean is, if we're going to take heat by being called socialist.... why not actually be socialist, if that's what you want?

 

Referring back to one of the posts I made yesterday, I come at this question from the POV that a good number of Americans (including suburban voters) don't associate themselves (or even want to associate themselves) with socialism, Democratic or otherwise.

And given that, I see there being more value in making your opponent seem pathological in screeching "socialism, socialism, socialism" at someone who clearly isn't that than there is in basically embracing socialism or running on it.

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29 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

I find it ironic the boomers on Medicare collecting social security decry socialism.

a lot of them believe they are getting back their own money - poor fools.

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10 minutes ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

It isn't socialism when I do it.

One of the worst things Bernie and others did was label themselves Democratic Socialists. The average person hardly understand what socialism is, but think it is a scary concept of the government killing you in camps and taking all of your property away. The "Democratic" part is entirely lost on them and the nuance isn't there.

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I still keep coming back to this.... especially on the topic of who will turnout for what candidate.

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17 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

I still keep coming back to this.... especially on the topic of who will turnout for what candidate.

Yup. By the numbers there are more Dems that repubs - all they have to do is show up.

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