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The 2020 Presidential Race

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1 hour ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

Trump went from ~46% approval to low 40s% within 90 days of taking office and it really hasn't shifted much either way since then.

yes - this has been noted before. The conventional wisdom and media interpretation of the stability in his poling largely misses that he probably lost his chance at re-election by April 2017.

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23 minutes ago, Oblong said:

I'd also add that Bernie is a personality like Trump is.  Meaning it's not necessarily the details of their proposals but rather it's just simply "them". 

 

They are both populist demagogues.  I do suspect that Sanders would not take his demagoguery into the presidency.      

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8 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

It seems like the Russian bots sure like Bernie Sanders. They also liked Tulsi, one of his biggest supporters and critics of the DNC, and Jill Stein who Bernie Bros pushed as the alternative to Sanders.

Maybe you want to acknowledge that the Bernie Bros are a thing and turning people off to Sanders whether they are Russian bots or a real thing. I'm just not one for cult politics. I fled the Bernie cult before it got too late.

Russian bots want to sow discord, particularly among people who are not their allies. You are being naive if you think there isn't a real effort to create division among progressives. And you seriously overestimate the Bernie Bro crowd.

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1 hour ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

Trump went from ~46% approval to low 40s% within 90 days of taking office and it really hasn't shifted much either way since then.

The 46% may have been a sugar high based on him winning the election.  It could be that he was really low 40s back then too.  

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28 minutes ago, Oblong said:

I'd also add that Bernie is a personality like Trump is.  Meaning it's not necessarily the details of their proposals but rather it's just simply "them". 

 

I'm not sure that he's a personality like Trump, per se, but the following that he has built around his candidacy this time around has taken on an edge that I find, frankly, repelling.

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12 minutes ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

Even if I buy the premise that normalcy got us Trump, it does not necessarily follow that doing the exact opposite of what was done leading up to Trump is the correct path forward.

If anything, the 2018 Midterms kinda was a preview of a possible way forward. And it didn't involve what Sanders was selling.

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15 minutes ago, 313DetroitCity said:

Russian bots want to sow discord, particularly among people who are not their allies. You are being naive if you think there isn't a real effort to create division among progressives. And you seriously overestimate the Bernie Bro crowd.

I am saying there is an effort to create division among progressives and it stems from the Bernie Bro crowd.

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Just now, Motown Bombers said:

I am saying there is an effort to create division among progressives and it stems from the Bernie Bro crowd.

Oh, to be this naive. The guy is the front runner among progressives, but you think others wouldn't want to bring him down.

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Just now, 313DetroitCity said:

Oh, to be this naive. The guy is the front runner among progressives, but you think others wouldn't want to bring him down.

Who is he the front runner of? Elizabeth Warren? He's running for the Democratic nomination. Joe Biden is in his way and the Bernie Bros are going non-stop at his competition.

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Just now, Motown Bombers said:

Who is he the front runner of? Elizabeth Warren? He's running for the Democratic nomination. Joe Biden is in his way and the Bernie Bros are going non-stop at his competition.

Front runner among progressives. As I said. 

The establishment benefits from in-fighting between Bernie & Warren. 

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18 minutes ago, tiger337 said:

The 46% may have been a sugar high based on him winning the election.  It could be that he was really low 40s back then too.  

Presumably the 46% voted for him for it to be a sugar high.

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17 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

If anything, the 2018 Midterms kinda was a preview of a possible way forward. And it didn't involve what Sanders was selling.

this is a fair point. But remember, Pelosi's stated strategy in 2016 was to not to run an anti-Trump campaign. It was to run on Democratic proposals - healthcare etc. It that is what you are saying we don't much disagree. But I would not characterize the way the Dems ran in 2018 as "cleaning up aisle 7"

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In regards to his winning despite low approval numbers in 2016, it's been suggested that he won in no small part because he won late deciders and the "I don't like either" vote.

There's absolutely no guarantee that he'll get that same benefit of the doubt in 2020 in large part because he *is* in office now, not a political novice that CW suggested was unlikely to win.

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3 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

this is a fair point. But remember, Pelosi's stated strategy in 2016 was to not to run an anti-Trump campaign. It was to run on Democratic proposals - healthcare etc. It that is what you are saying don't disagree. But I would not characterize the way the Dems ran in 2018 as "cleaning up aisle 7"

I'm not sure you've noticed, but Biden/Klob/Pete are running on these sorts of Democratic proposals as well, and they tend to be a lot closer to what Pelosi was running on in 2018 than what Warren or Sanders are selling.

In regards to "Clean Up on Aisle 7", the point is more that it is a subtext of this election rather than the thing that is explicitly being run on.

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2 minutes ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

Presumably the 46% voted for him for it to be a sugar high.

I think there could have been a percentage who didn't vote for him that said they approved of him after he won because they wanted to give him a chance and were being optimistic.  

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16 minutes ago, tiger337 said:

They are both populist demagogues.  I do suspect that Sanders would not take his demagoguery into the presidency.      

I believe it would be the opposite, to a point. I think a Sanders Presidency would consist of lots of rallies, marches, protests, and press conferences against the wealthy, corporations, Republicans, and those in his own party that won't go along with the major parts of his agenda. Say for example if the Democrats controlled the House and either refused to bring M4A up to a floor vote or they voted it down, I could easily see Bernie holding a press conference everyday there after railing on about how it is day #476, #477, #478 since the Democratic majority in the House refused to bring universal healthcare to a vote and/or voted it down. I think he would strategically pick fights with his own party over major parts of his agenda to either pressure them into voting for it or at minimum raise awareness around the issue.

I also think for those that don't go along (see AOC vs. Joe Crowley as an example) that Sanders would, in certain instances, welcome primaries to more moderate, centrist Democrats. I don't believe he would welcome that as a universal strategy, but for centrist Democrats he believes are in safe blue seats, I think he would back more progressive options.

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Bernie Sanders will also be 79 and a heart attack survivor. Do we really expect him to be more than a one term president? What do we really expect to be accomplished in this one term? I'm not even sure Sanders wants to be president.

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Just now, Motown Bombers said:

Bernie Sanders will also be 79 and a heart attack survivor. Do we really expect him to be more than a one term president? What do we really expect to be accomplished in this one term? I'm not even sure Sanders wants to be president.

lol. Sanders is running for president for what purpose? 

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3 minutes ago, tiger337 said:

I think there could have been a percentage who didn't vote for him that said they approved of him after he won because they wanted to give him a chance and were being optimistic.  

I doubt that number was as high as roughly 10% of those who approved of him then.

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1 minute ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

I believe it would be the opposite, to a point. I think a Sanders Presidency would consist of lots of rallies, marches, protests, and press conferences against the wealthy, corporations, Republicans, and those in his own party that won't go along with the major parts of his agenda. Say for example if the Democrats controlled the House and either refused to bring M4A up to a floor vote or they voted it down, I could easily see Bernie holding a press conference everyday there after railing on about how it is day #476, #477, #478 since the Democratic majority in the House refused to bring universal healthcare to a vote and/or voted it down. I think he would strategically pick fights with his own party over major parts of his agenda to either pressure them into voting for it or at minimum raise awareness around the issue.

I also think for those that don't go along (see AOC vs. Joe Crowley as an example) that Sanders would, in certain instances, welcome primaries to more moderate, centrist Democrats. I don't believe he would welcome that as a universal strategy, but for centrist Democrats he believes are in safe blue seats, I think he would back more progressive options.

That may work in the Bronx but let's see how that works for Manchin in West Virginia and Tester in Montana.

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Just now, 313DetroitCity said:

lol. Sanders is running for president for what purpose? 

Sanders is a career political activist. The only reason he ran in 2016 was to bring attention to his Medicare for all among other things. Only difference is that Sanders became more popular. Do you really think Andrew Yang is running as a serious candidate? It's to bring attention to his freedom dividend.

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3 minutes ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

I doubt that number was as high as roughly 10% of those who approved of him then.

Obama had something similar happen:

trump-obama-approval-ratings-infographic

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6 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

Bernie Sanders will also be 79 and a heart attack survivor. Do we really expect him to be more than a one term president? What do we really expect to be accomplished in this one term? I'm not even sure Sanders wants to be president.

yeah - This is the 700 gorilla in the corner for both Bernie and Biden. I don't care if they put the best person in world in as VP,  a president in failing health is not a good thing for the country. The examples of Wilson, Reagan and Roosevelt are pretty clear on this. Biggest reason I can't support either for the nomination.

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Just now, Motown Bombers said:

That may work in the Bronx but let's see how that works for Manchin in West Virginia and Tester in Montana.

That's why I think you'll see that strategy implemented in safer blue seats where he thinks he can flip it to a progressive Democrat. I don't think he would go after a Manchin or a Tester. The Dan Lapinski (anti-choice, moderate Dem) vs. Marie Newman (progressive. pro choice Dem) in Illinois 3rd Congressional District comes to mind as an example of a race he would potentially meddle in.

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3 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

That may work in the Bronx but let's see how that works for Manchin in West Virginia and Tester in Montana.

Or Stevens / Slotkin in Michigan, or Allred / Fletcher in Texas, or Underwood / Casten in Illinois, or Rouda / Cisneros in California, or........................

 

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