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The 2020 Presidential Race

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26 minutes ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

I agree.  Change is more likely to be gradual than seismic, and as Oblong pointed out, a decent chunk of the next presidency is going to be cleaning up the mess in aisle 7.

At the end of the day, what the next presidency should be, specifically should it begin next January, is what is at debate here. And I really do believe there is a conventional wisdom developing (the NYT endorsement episode of The Weekly exhibited this some) in which the next nominee needs to be someone that proposed huge structural change and excite voters when, at the end of the day, a majority of people just want to fire the guy running the show and replace him with someone competent and get things stabilized. Clean up on Aisle 7, IOW.

It's not the sexy answer, especially to the high info voters who follow this stuff as much as we do, but I really do think that people need to be attuned to the attitudes in the country right now.

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Maybe Biden is the safe easy pick or like Hillary Clinton.  I don't follow this stuff as much as most of you guys, but it looks a lot like 2016 to me with the party thinking that a moderate would easily beat a nut job like Trump.  Logically Biden might be the best bet, but I am not convinced. 

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1 hour ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

I agree.  Change is more likely to be gradual than seismic, and as Oblong pointed out, a decent chunk of the next presidency is going to be cleaning up the mess in aisle 7.

If the Senate is still Republican majority, nothing of significance will get passed.  Even if the Democrats dominate both houses, the progressive proposals are going to get watered down by the time they become bills.  

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9 minutes ago, tiger337 said:

I don't follow this stuff as much as most of you guys, but it looks a lot like 2016 to me with the party thinking that a moderate would easily beat a nut job like Trump.  

The difference is that the nut job is actually President now, not a written off longshot.

Many of the comparisons to 2016 fail to take this under consideration. The circumstances are much different.

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10 minutes ago, tiger337 said:

If the Senate is still Republican majority, nothing of significance will get passed.  Even if the Democrats dominate both houses, the progressive proposals are going to get watered down by the time they become bills.  

Correct. The Congress has to pass legislation and unlike the GOP, in general democratic Congresses do not simply roll over for democratic presidents and the Senate GOP  will certainly still have 40 or more. Which is why I would just as soon have a President that is willing to push hard for change. It's the energy generated from that push and pull when a real debate is taking place where workable policy and acceptable change work themselves out, I don't see much chance of the US turning into Harold Wilson's Britain regardless of which Democrat make it to the HW.

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7 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

The difference is that the nut job is actually President now, not a written off longshot.

Many of the comparisons to 2016 fail to take this under consideration. The circumstances are much different.

But his popularity (or lack thereof) has remained pretty steady.  

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8 minutes ago, tiger337 said:

But his popularity (or lack thereof) has remained pretty steady.  

And it is still easier to beat nothing with something than with more nothing. Campaigning against bad judges and bad incumbents is certainly effective, but you cover a lot more bases if you also have an agenda that people can get enthused about.  Of course the country is so screwed up today  that half the people are more interested in pwning the other half than progress and the rest don't recognize what policies are in their own interests anyway.

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17 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

And it is still easier to beat nothing with something than with more nothing. 

Are moderate candidates actually campaigning on nothing?

To me, in these conversations, it almost feels like unless you promise what a Sanders or Warren promises, you are basically in favor of the status quo. And that just isn't accurate... just because a Biden or a Klobuchar doesnt have the same platform as Warren doesn't make it nothing.

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27 minutes ago, tiger337 said:

But his popularity (or lack thereof) has remained pretty steady.  

He has a record to run on and defend now. Which means he's much less likely to get the benefit of the doubt this time around.

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7 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

Are moderate candidates actually campaigning on nothing?

To me, in these conversations, it almost feels like unless you promise what a Sanders or Warren promises, you are basically in favor of the status quo. And that just isn't accurate... just because a Biden or a Klobuchar doesnt have the same platform as Warren doesn't make it nothing.

True, I don't imagine any candidate would admit to not having some positive agenda, but the posting in this thread is quite close to advocating for a caretaker government. I don't thing that is good politics if you are a Dem. Now if you are a Rep who just wants Trump gone, it is a different calculus - sure. A caretaker Dem would be just what the doctor ordered. :wink:

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2 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

True, I don't imagine any candidate would admit to not having some positive agenda, 

It's not about admitting to having some positive agenda, it's that a Biden and Klobuchar have a far more positive agenda than the status quo. It's not "nothing"

10 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

I don't thing that is good politics if you are a Dem. Now if you are a Rep who just wants Trump gone, it is a different calculus - sure. A caretaker Dem is just what the doctor ordered. :wink:

I am more or less Democrat and think that it would be best for the country that he be removed. Call that bad politics if you want... I think we need the strongest candidate to win.

And, given that a hypothetical President Sanders or Warren would get next to nothing past a Senate with even a small Democratic majority (good luck getting Manchin, Sinema, Tester, Coons, etc. to sign off on that agenda), it's possible that their Presidencies would do more to harm Dem priorities than a more realistic approach from someone such as a Biden or Klobuchar 

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2 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

It's not about admitting to having some positive agenda, it's that a Biden and Klobuchar have a far more positive agenda than the status quo. It's not "nothing"

I am more or less Democrat and think that it would be best for the country that he be removed. Call that bad politics if you want... I think we need the strongest candidate to win.

And, given that a hypothetical President Sanders or Warren would get next to nothing past a Senate with even a small Democratic majority (good luck getting Manchin, Sinema, Tester, Coons, etc. to sign off on that agenda), it's possible that their Presidencies would do more to harm Dem priorities than a more realistic approach from someone such as a Biden or Klobuchar 

I can easily live with Klobuchar's politics - I'm just not getting much leadership vibe from her and I'm afraid that could mean a Klobuchar administration would end up like Carter's - a muddle - that would end up being rejected in 4 yrs. I'm still persuadable and would be happy to vote for her if she gets the nod - but that would be my worry. OTOH, she has supposedly been a fairly effective Senator legislatively. Best case I guess is that she is a Bush I type, more effective leading inside the room than outside.

 

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6 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

I can easily live with Klobuchar's politics - I'm just not getting much leadership vibe from her and I'm afraid that could mean a Klobuchar administration would end up like Carter's - a muddle - that would end up being rejected in 4 yrs. I'm still persuadable and would be happy to vote for her if she gets the nod - but that would be my worry. OTOH, she has supposedly been a fairly effective Senator legislatively. Best case I guess is that she is a Bush I type, more effective leading inside the room than outside.

 

I feel like we are talking in circles at this point, but the point I'm driving at is that, after Trump, the bolded may be what a significant portion of the American public actually wants.

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33 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

the bolded may be what a significant portion of the American public actually wants.

I guess I don't know what you mean by that: that the public just wants an end to public histrionics or for nothing to actually happen for a while? I do not agree that anything more than a small minority of the country is happy with the status quo, or even what the status quo would be sine Trump. Maybe a lot of that unhappy majority are in somewhat of a state of political paralysis because they no longer see or believe that the change they want is even possible or will ever happen inside the existing system any more. And I would count a lot of erstwhile Trump voters in that number.

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6 hours ago, Gehringer_2 said:

I guess I don't know what you mean by that: that the public just wants an end to public histrionics or for nothing to actually happen for a while? 

Again, I reject the notion that voting for one of the moderates is a vote for the status quo.

Gonna have to call a truce on this one. I'm not sure I'm making my point clearly enough.

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8 hours ago, tiger337 said:

But his popularity (or lack thereof) has remained pretty steady.  

Trump went from ~46% approval to low 40s% within 90 days of taking office and it really hasn't shifted much either way since then.

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7 hours ago, Gehringer_2 said:

I guess I don't know what you mean by that: that the public just wants an end to public histrionics or for nothing to actually happen for a while? I do not agree that anything more than a small minority of the country is happy with the status quo, or even what the status quo would be sine Trump. Maybe a lot of that unhappy majority are in somewhat of a state of political paralysis because they no longer see or believe that the change they want is even possible or will ever happen inside the existing system any more. And I would count a lot of erstwhile Trump voters in that number.

The point he is making is he thinks the public wants an adult in the room trying to return things to normalcy rather than someone with a big vision that has no practical means of effecting the changes they propose.

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45 minutes ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

The point he is making is he thinks the public wants an adult in the room trying to return things to normalcy rather than someone with a big vision that has no practical means of effecting the changes they propose.

I'd also add that Bernie is a personality like Trump is.  Meaning it's not necessarily the details of their proposals but rather it's just simply "them". 

 

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6 minutes ago, Oblong said:

I'd also add that Bernie is a personality like Trump is.  Meaning it's not necessarily the details of their proposals but rather it's just simply "them". 

 

Calling Bernie a "personality" like Trump is hilarious. The guy has spent his entire career honing these policy proposals and has been incredibly consistent in what he proposes. Bernie's support isn't due to his personality, it is because almost all of the individual policy proposals he has are supported by the majority of the American public.

He didn't rise up the polls because of publicity stunts or media coverage. 

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Bernie Sanders has definitely created a cult. I decided to look at Warren and Buttigieg's Facebook pages and the comments are nothing but Bernie Bros attacking them. They also appear to be mad at Biden because he has the audacity to not claim all billionaires are bad people. They are victims like Trump as everything is rigged against them.

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53 minutes ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

The point he is making is he thinks the public wants an adult in the room trying to return things to normalcy rather than someone with a big vision that has no practical means of effecting the changes they propose.

Normalcy is what got us Trump. The refusal to get money out of politics. The prioritization of corporations over people. Unflinching support of the military industrial complex.

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Just now, Motown Bombers said:

Bernie Sanders has definitely created a cult. I decided to look at Warren and Buttigieg's Facebook pages and the comments are nothing but Bernie Bros attacking them. They also appear to be mad at Biden because he has the audacity to not claim all billionaires are bad people. They are victims like Trump as everything is rigged against them.

You are looking at Facebook comments to determine a person's support? Did you learn nothing from the previous election and Russian bots on Facebook?

It seems pretty damn clear that there is a concerted effort to sow seeds of division among progressives by outside groups. You might want to acknowledge that pushing the narrative of "Bernie Bros" benefits some people (establishment Democrats, Republicans and foreign influences). 

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2 minutes ago, 313DetroitCity said:

You are looking at Facebook comments to determine a person's support? Did you learn nothing from the previous election and Russian bots on Facebook?

It seems pretty damn clear that there is a concerted effort to sow seeds of division among progressives by outside groups. You might want to acknowledge that pushing the narrative of "Bernie Bros" benefits some people (establishment Democrats, Republicans and foreign influences). 

It seems like the Russian bots sure like Bernie Sanders. They also liked Tulsi, one of his biggest supporters and critics of the DNC, and Jill Stein who Bernie Bros pushed as the alternative to Sanders.

Maybe you want to acknowledge that the Bernie Bros are a thing and turning people off to Sanders whether they are Russian bots or a real thing. I'm just not one for cult politics. I fled the Bernie cult before it got too late.

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10 minutes ago, 313DetroitCity said:

Normalcy is what got us Trump. The refusal to get money out of politics. The prioritization of corporations over people. Unflinching support of the military industrial complex.

Even if I buy the premise that normalcy got us Trump, it does not necessarily follow that doing the exact opposite of what was done leading up to Trump is the correct path forward.

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4 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

It seems like the Russian bots sure like Bernie Sanders. They also liked Tulsi, one of his biggest supporters and critics of the DNC, and Jill Stein who Bernie Bros pushed as the alternative to Sanders.

Maybe you want to acknowledge that the Bernie Bros are a thing and turning people off to Sanders whether they are Russian bots or a real thing. I'm just not one for cult politics. I fled the Bernie cult before it got too late.

Being promoted by bots alone should not be enough to disqualify anyone.  I suspect everyone in the race is promoted to some extent by bots.

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