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The 2020 Presidential Race

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14 minutes ago, tiger337 said:

 

This is anecdotal, but I work with a lot of college students who don't want a return to normal.  They think Trump is a joke, but they wanted big changes before Trump.  They aren't going to vote for Biden just to get rid of Trump.  They need a candidate that will excite them.  Young adults are showing interest in the process for the first time in a long time and will vote if they Sanders or Warren is nominated, but probably will stay home if it's Biden.  On the other hand, you risk losing the never Trumpers and independents if it's someone other than Biden.  I don't think it's as clear cut as Biden is the only choice though.    

 

 

 

I have a hard time believing, push comes to shove, that turnout is going to be an issue in an election with Donald Trump on the ballot for reelection.

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23 minutes ago, Oblong said:

That's what I expect to happen.  It happens every election cycle.  Young people think they will change the world and expect total purity and don't understand that's not reality.  

 

As I said above, I have a hard time believing that this is going to be a low turnout election across most demographics once push comes to shove simply because of how strong peoples' views on Trump are.

But even with respect to the generational divide and taking Lee's argument at face value, it's not clear to me that betting on younger voters versus more middle aged and older moderate and independent voters is a good idea considering the reality that young people, historically, have never been a reliable cohort.

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1 hour ago, tiger337 said:

 

This is anecdotal, but I work with a lot of college students who don't want a return to normal.  They think Trump is a joke, but they wanted big changes before Trump.  They aren't going to vote for Biden just to get rid of Trump.  They need a candidate that will excite them.  Young adults are showing interest in the process for the first time in a long time and will vote if they Sanders or Warren is nominated, but probably will stay home if it's Biden.  On the other hand, you risk losing the never Trumpers and independents if it's someone other than Biden.  I don't think it's as clear cut as Biden is the only choice though.    

 

 

 

I think it would be easier to get a 40 and up, more moderate/conservative Democrat to plug their nose and go for Bernie or Warren than it would be getting a younger person to go for Biden. To your point, the 18-39 crowd has wanted a big shift and change for some time now. I think many thought they were going to get that under Obama and were disappointed when they did not and are now only amplified on their desires.

Given the overwhelming number of young people polled who think capitalism is a problem, the Democratic Party is eventually going to get to a point where being pro capitalist or at least not being a capitalist reformer ala Warren, is going to be a determent to your campaign. We are starting to see the tip of that conflict with the Biden vs. Bernie feud that's playing out now. I believe with voices like AOC, Rashida Tlaib, Ilhan Omar, Ayanna Pressley, Ro Khanna, etc. gaining a higher profile in the party that this rift will only grow in election cycles to come.

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20 minutes ago, tigerbomb13 said:

Nothing was learned from 2016, was it?

I don't disagree with what she is saying. She was also dead on with Tulsi, who by the way was one of Sanders earliest supporters. People aren't going to want to hear it because of the messenger. I was a supporter of Sanders in 2016, but I cannot wait until he goes away. Hillary can also go away too.

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22 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

I think it would be easier to get a 40 and up, more moderate/conservative Democrat to plug their nose and go for Bernie or Warren than it would be getting a younger person to go for Biden.

Yeah, I don't agree with this at all. Particularly with respect to Bernie.

Winning back ground in 2020 isn't just about young voters, it's about suburban moderates (ie. the people who gave the Democrats control of the House). Tempermentally, Bernie is out of step with this cohort of people. I legit believe Warren has some room to compete here, but Bernie is a liability.

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16 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

I don't disagree with what she is saying. She was also dead on with Tulsi, who by the way was one of Sanders earliest supporters. People aren't going to want to hear it because of the messenger. I was a supporter of Sanders in 2016, but I cannot wait until he goes away. Hillary can also go away too.

I just want to wipe out the GOP as much as possible in this election. I get that the Bernie or bust bros are annoying, but creating more fractures in the Democratic Party isn’t going to help. 

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Yup...

It's a Presidential campaign on paper, but it's seems more about spending money to soften up Trump (as ROMAD has suggested in the past)

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48 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

I think it would be easier to get a 40 and up, more moderate/conservative Democrat to plug their nose and go for Bernie or Warren than it would be getting a younger person to go for Biden. To your point, the 18-39 crowd has wanted a big shift and change for some time now. I think many thought they were going to get that under Obama and were disappointed when they did not and are now only amplified on their desires.

Given the overwhelming number of young people polled who think capitalism is a problem, the Democratic Party is eventually going to get to a point where being pro capitalist or at least not being a capitalist reformer ala Warren, is going to be a determent to your campaign. We are starting to see the tip of that conflict with the Biden vs. Bernie feud that's playing out now. I believe with voices like AOC, Rashida Tlaib, Ilhan Omar, Ayanna Pressley, Ro Khanna, etc. gaining a higher profile in the party that this rift will only grow in election cycles to come.

Here is what I would say to this premise - I agree with the notion that it is going to become increasingly necessary for democratic candidates to be a capitalist reformer at a minimum over time.  I would not be surprised if this becomes a key tenant, if not the key tenant of the Democratic Party in my lifetime (I am 46).  I think the voices you named are the tip of the spear of this transition, as it were.

I do not think that is the optimal approach to the 2020 presidential election, however.  For one thing, it isn't clear if it is what most of Democrat voters even want right now, and it certainly isn't popular with the population at large, overall.  If less than 50% of democrats want the policy, that is a showstopper for me in an election that probably is (if it isn't) a must win type situation as any presidential election in my lifetime.

Secondly, with partisanship as high as it is now, I don't think any significant policies will be enacted 2021-4, presuming a Democrat wins the presidency.  I'd rather not sour progressive policies with a presidency that is ultimately likely going to be about rebuilding, to use Oblong's phrasing.

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2 minutes ago, tigerbomb13 said:

I just want to wipe out the GOP as much as possible in this election. I get that the Bernie or bust bros are annoying, but creating more fractures in the Democratic Party isn’t going to help. 

I agree Hillary should have kept it to herself, but I don't disagree with what she said. The Bernie Bros are really becoming a cult of personality. I seem to recall them complaining because Biden wouldn't necessarily call billionaires bad people. It's the same class warfare as Trump just different classes.

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6 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

I agree Hillary should have kept it to herself, but I don't disagree with what she said. The Bernie Bros are really becoming a cult of personality. I seem to recall them complaining because Biden wouldn't necessarily call billionaires bad people. It's the same class warfare as Trump just different classes.

I agree too. You’d think some Bernie supporters on my Facebook think Warren and Biden are worse than Trump, when I’m actually sure they agree on a good chunk of the same policies. I just want everyone to put this aside for now and focus on the election. 

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1 hour ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

Is Hillary causing fractures or fissures?

That's why we have engineers.... to tell us that.

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2 hours ago, tigerbomb13 said:

Nothing was learned from 2016, was it?

She is saying nobody in Washington likes Bernie.

Good. I want a President who is for the people, not for the establishment.

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1 minute ago, 313DetroitCity said:

She is saying nobody in Washington likes Bernie.

Good. I want a President who is for the people, not for the establishment.

I didn't know you were a Trump supporter. 

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3 hours ago, tiger337 said:

 

This is anecdotal, but I work with a lot of college students who don't want a return to normal.  They think Trump is a joke, but they wanted big changes before Trump.  They aren't going to vote for Biden just to get rid of Trump.  They need a candidate that will excite them.  Young adults are showing interest in the process for the first time in a long time and will vote if they Sanders or Warren is nominated, but probably will stay home if it's Biden.  On the other hand, you risk losing the never Trumpers and independents if it's someone other than Biden.  I don't think it's as clear cut as Biden is the only choice though.    

So difficult decision for Biden:

Pick Warren as running mate to pull in progressives; or Klobuchar to pull-in midwestern swing voters...

Tough call...

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I think Biden has his midwest appeal already, personally

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2 minutes ago, pfife said:

I think Biden has his midwest appeal already, personally

Biden + Kamela (unless he's nursing some grievance about her busing thing) or + Abrams (although her lack of major office is a factor) or + Booker (although he is a vegan)

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17 minutes ago, 84 Lives!!! said:

So difficult decision for Biden:

Pick Warren as running mate to pull in progressives; or Klobuchar to pull-in midwestern swing voters...

Tough call...

Absolutely not on Warren. Not going to lose a Democratic senator from a blue state like Massachusetts for VP.

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56 minutes ago, 84 Lives!!! said:

So difficult decision for Biden:

Pick Warren as running mate to pull in progressives; or Klobuchar to pull-in midwestern swing voters...

Tough call...

I've said it before, but if he ends up the nominee, Biden needs to be gearing his pick toward someone who can be seen as a standard bearer in future years for the Democratic Party moreso than any sort of ideological/geographical balancing.

On paper, on that basis, Kamala seems like the smart pick to me, but I wouldn't be surprised if he went with someone who may not be on anyone's radar right now (perhaps someone like Terri Sewell or Val Demings)

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