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The 2020 Presidential Race

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There were discussions several pages back on Biden's electability being correlated, if not tied, to being the favored candidate with the AA community, and I read the following and I think it speaks to some of points raised earlier:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-iowa-caucuses-are-in-17-days-whats-going-on-in-the-early-states/

Speaking of Biden’s base, a new national poll from The Washington Post and Ipsos found 48 percent of black Democratic registered voters supported Biden. Sanders was second with 20 percent support, and no other candidate reached double-digit support. There was a noticeable age difference in Biden and Sanders’s supporters: Among registered voters 50 years and older, Biden captured more than 50 percent support. He also led Sanders, 41 percent to 16 percent, among voters 35 to 49 years old. Yet among those under the age of 35, Sanders attracted 42 percent support versus Biden’s 30 percent.

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34 minutes ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

There were discussions several pages back on Biden's electability being correlated, if not tied, to being the favored candidate with the AA community, and I read the following and I think it speaks to some of points raised earlier:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-iowa-caucuses-are-in-17-days-whats-going-on-in-the-early-states/

Speaking of Biden’s base, a new national poll from The Washington Post and Ipsos found 48 percent of black Democratic registered voters supported Biden. Sanders was second with 20 percent support, and no other candidate reached double-digit support. There was a noticeable age difference in Biden and Sanders’s supporters: Among registered voters 50 years and older, Biden captured more than 50 percent support. He also led Sanders, 41 percent to 16 percent, among voters 35 to 49 years old. Yet among those under the age of 35, Sanders attracted 42 percent support versus Biden’s 30 percent.

I was listening to Mike Murphy and David Axelrod's weekly podcast yesterday and was struck by the contention Murphy that it was the non-Sanders wing that would need to coalesce around a candidate or that he was liable to go on a roll, ala 2016 Trump.

And the above is why I think it's a bad take... outside of Bernie, none of the other candidates have shown the ability to gain any sort of momentum with the AA community aside from Biden. And even there, I'm deeply skeptical that Bernie will ever make inroads during the primary with older AA voters.

It's like there's this inherent assumption that AA voters are gonna see the results in IA and NH and just change their minds... there isn't a ton of evidence to support this assumption to date.

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Just now, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

It's Biden's nomination to lose, and that hasn't changed since the start

Correct.  He's not a guarantee, of course, but it is perplexing why many commentators continue to pretend otherwise.

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I've decided to just give in and throw my support behind Biden. Why drag it out more than it needs to be? I hope he picks Klobuchar as his running mate. 

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I will point out that Sanders support among 18-35 age group was consistent with what DC313 was observing / suggesting earlier. 

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5 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

I've decided to just give in and throw my support behind Biden. Why drag it out more than it needs to be? I hope he picks Klobuchar as his running mate. 

I like that idea too.  Originally I said Biden/Harris.  He defintely needs to pick a woman or a black person.  With Harris he gets both.  But Amy might be better.  

And given his age it's an important pick.

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10 minutes ago, Oblong said:

I like that idea too.  Originally I said Biden/Harris.  He defintely needs to pick a woman or a black person.  With Harris he gets both.  But Amy might be better.  

And given his age it's an important pick.

I'm pretty certain Biden would be a one and done. I think Klobuchar is the most well rounded candidate and would be ready to make a 2024 run. I'm on the Warren/Sanders ideological side, but there is something about both of them that is off-putting. I liked Harris too but her prosecutor background really shows. As a VP, I suppose she could be the attack dog of sorts. Klobuchar just has that wholesome Midwest quality with the ability to attack when necessary. Reminds me a lot of Whitmer too. 

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1 hour ago, mtutiger said:

I was listening to Mike Murphy and David Axelrod's weekly podcast yesterday and was struck by the contention Murphy that it was the non-Sanders wing that would need to coalesce around a candidate or that he was liable to go on a roll, ala 2016 Trump.

And the above is why I think it's a bad take... outside of Bernie, none of the other candidates have shown the ability to gain any sort of momentum with the AA community aside from Biden. And even there, I'm deeply skeptical that Bernie will ever make inroads during the primary with older AA voters.

It's like there's this inherent assumption that AA voters are gonna see the results in IA and NH and just change their minds... there isn't a ton of evidence to support this assumption to date.

So my twitter feed is hardly representative of anything, so take it for what it's worth...

There are a lot of African Americans that like Bernie..... and there are a lot that really really really really really don't like Bernie.   I think it's definitely an age thing, but the age where it changes from like to don't like is fairly young, and the amount of dislike is very strong.

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31 minutes ago, pfife said:

So my twitter feed is hardly representative of anything, so take it for what it's worth...

There are a lot of African Americans that like Bernie..... and there are a lot that really really really really really don't like Bernie.   I think it's definitely an age thing, but the age where it changes from like to don't like is fairly young, and the amount of dislike is very strong.

I agree with this overall. I'd say Bernie is in better shape than he was four years ago with AA voters, but that he's in really bad shape with the above 35s... and that's a group that is both larger and more reliable than the 18-35s.

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Bernie Bros are threatening a boycott of the election if Biden is nominated. They are so insufferable, almost as bad as Trumpers. 

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1 hour ago, Motown Bombers said:

Bernie Bros are threatening a boycott of the election if Biden is nominated. They are so insufferable, almost as bad as Trumpers. 

Bunch of crybabies.  By doing that they are voting for Trump. 

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Good for them.  Nice to see principled voters instead of the mouth breathers that say anyone but Trump.

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I am a mouth breather.  I don't like any of them, but Trump is intolerable on so many levels so it's anyone but Trump.  Once Trump is gone, I will go back to not caring about politics anymore.  

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It's not good for them. How about they try to convince us why we should vote for Sanders? I don't respond well to threats. They did this in 2016 and what did it get them? It got Donald Trump instead of the candidate who voted 80% of the time with Sanders. It's not about policy. It's about winning and pwning the establishment. It's Trumpism. 

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I question the intelligence or the morality of anyone who cannot recognize the unique threat Trump poses to both the future of our country and our own personal safety.  His time in office is a national emergency. 

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3 hours ago, Deleterious said:

Good for them.  Nice to see principled voters instead of the mouth breathers that say anyone but Trump.

Only a brainless corrupt scumbag **** would switch from Sanders to Trump.

You?

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12 minutes ago, Oblong said:

I question the intelligence or the morality of anyone who cannot recognize the unique threat Trump poses to both the future of our country and our own personal safety.  His time in office is a national emergency. 

Concur

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And I get that 40ish% of the country is ok with him and probably 25% really do love the guy.... but that’s not good enough.  A certain % or the country are idiots.  How many think the Holocaust didn’t happen or we didn’t land on the moon.... that’s your Trump lovers.  25% will believe anything.  

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31 minutes ago, Oblong said:

I question the intelligence or the morality of anyone who cannot recognize the unique threat Trump poses to both the future of our country and our own personal safety.  His time in office is a national emergency. 

Oh stop posting like you're a 12 year old emo kid.

The Republic was fine before, during, and after Trump.  There is no threat to anyone's personal security.

There are many reasons to beat Trump in November.  But you look foolish when you lob grenades like this.

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Remember, it's not lobbing grenades but principled to threaten to boycott an election when you don't get your way even though the Republic will be fine even if you vote for Biden. 

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10 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

Remember, it's not lobbing grenades but principled to threaten to boycott an election when you don't get your way even though the Republic will be fine even if you vote for Biden. 

No no, they should go vote for someone that doesn't represent their views.  That makes sense.  

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I've done that a lot.  It makes sense to me.

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10 minutes ago, Deleterious said:

No no, they should go vote for someone that doesn't represent their views.  That makes sense.  

You're right. Makes sense to not vote at all so the guy that least represents your views wins instead of the candidate that represents 80% of your views. 

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