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The 2020 Presidential Race

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On 12/1/2019 at 7:49 PM, stanpapi said:

It will be like mondale or dukakis. 

The days of Mondale or Dukakis are long gone. This nation is too polarized and Trump is too unpopular nationally to win in this fashion.

If he wins again (which is entirely possible) it'll be similar (more likely closer) than in 2016. Regardless of who the Ds nominate

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42 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

The days of Mondale or Dukakis are long gone. This nation is too polarized and Trump is too unpopular nationally to win in this fashion.

I agree.  The politics of the 80s are ancient history, and comparisons to Mondale or Dukakis don't reflect how polarized our nation has become.

43 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

If he wins again (which is entirely possible) it'll be similar (more likely closer) than in 2016. Regardless of who the Ds nominate

Trump will lose the popular vote in 2020 regardless of outcome.  The EC will depend on which voters show up in swing states.

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51 minutes ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

Agreed to both, mostly.

I could see a landslide wiping Trump out, though it depends on the impeachment proceedings.

I could see Trump losing by a decent amount, but I tend to believe that result would be more tied to an economic downturn than anything resulting from impeachment. At this point, though, people are pretty locked in and it's hard to see much shifting going forward. 

Either way, hard to see a President who brags about hitting 50% in Rasmussen polls running away in an EC landslide.

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I feel confident in saying it isn't possible for Trump to win in a landslide at this point.

I am trying to think of something scandalous enough to effectively eliminate all the potential candidates and am not thinking anything could effectively remove each one from putting up a serious challenge.

Maybe some 3rd/4th party candidates drawing off significant number of votes?  Not seeing it, though.

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I look at the results from 2016 and outside of NH, I can't see Trump flipping any Hillary states.

The D can flip MI, PA, AZ, WI, NC.... and maybe FL.

I sort of ranked those states in order too... FL doesn't get talked about much but I would like to see some good polling there.

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Oblong said:

I look at the results from 2016 and outside of NH, I can't see Trump flipping any Hillary states.

The D can flip MI, PA, AZ, WI, NC.... and maybe FL.

I sort of ranked those states in order too... FL doesn't get talked about much but I would like to see some good polling there.

 

 

On paper, Nevada and Minnesota would be possible flip opportunities for the President. The issue with Nevada, though, is that it's highly polarized and that the two largest counties (Clark and Washoe) are going in the wrong direction for the GOP, and they make up about 75+% of the vote.

And with Minnesota, ~60% of voters are in the Minneapolis-St. Paul area. There may be some room for the margins to grow in rural parts of Minnesota, but one could easily see the Democratic nominee doing a lot better in suburban counties around MSP as well.

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4 minutes ago, Oblong said:

I look at the results from 2016 and outside of NH, I can't see Trump flipping any Hillary states.

The D can flip MI, PA, AZ, WI, NC.... and maybe FL.

I sort of ranked those states in order too... FL doesn't get talked about much but I would like to see some good polling there.

 

 

I haven't researched this myself, but apparently the Trump thinks he has a shot to turn Minnesota, but I don't know for sure. 

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29 minutes ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

I feel confident in saying it isn't possible for Trump to win in a landslide at this point.

I am trying to think of something scandalous enough to effectively eliminate all the potential candidates and am not thinking anything could effectively remove each one from putting up a serious challenge.

Maybe some 3rd/4th party candidates drawing off significant number of votes?  Not seeing it, though.

He will win in a landslide as soon as Sessions flips the script. Patience. 

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8 minutes ago, pfife said:

I haven't researched this myself, but apparently the Trump thinks he has a shot to turn Minnesota, but I don't know for sure. 

The belief comes from the fact that there may be room for him to grow his margins in more rural parts of the state and the Iron Range. And that's true, he definitely could.

The problem is that there's still a lot of meat on the bone for the Democrats in The Cities.... even with the kind of margins that Hillary ran in 2016 there, the bottom didn't completely fall out for the President, whereas it really could in 2020.

EDIT: As an aside, this is where guys like Dave Wasserman (from Cook Political Report) are a little off.... there's the continued insistence (factual, IMO) that Trump can grow his margins beyond 2016 in rural areas, but with the simultaneous downplaying of the fact that there's still a lot of room for him to drop in the suburbs as well.

Pennsylvania is a great example: Trump won the state not just because he swung a lot of votes in rural areas, but because he held onto enough vote in the Philly area. A lot of that same vote didn't stay loyal in 2018 and there's reason to believe it won't in 2020.

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In a pure guess, having looked at prior polling data of who their second choice was, it seems that many Kamala supporters pegged Warren as their second choice. We will see if she gets any kind of bump form this.

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First one to drop out where I didn't have to say "They were in?"

Someone will ask Biden and he'll say something like "She's a tough gal... she'll get through this... that broad's a fighter"

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Just now, Oblong said:

First one to drop out where I didn't have to say "They were in?"

Someone will ask Biden and he'll say something like "She's a tough gal... she'll get through this..."

IMO Beto was the first recognizable name to go. Glad to see more candidates drop out, it will help clarify the big picture. 

Castro might be the next "name" to drop. 

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1 minute ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

You may one day.

It objectively is a historically tough field to crack.

Yeah, I gotta think that she'd be on Biden or Warren's shortlist for VP as well.

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