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The 2020 Presidential Race

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JVL is on blast about the current situation being a CRISIS.

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This is the time for vigilance. If you aren’t alarmed, you should be.

Stand up. Speak out.

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A Crisis Is Unfolding, Right Now

Don't be fooled; we're on the knife's edge.

   

1. The Question

I’m going to ask you a question and I want you to think about—really think for a minute—before you come to an answer:

Imagine that Donald Trump had won the popular vote by more than 5 million votes last week, but Joe Biden was leading by a total of 70,000 votes in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada. Essentially making the result the inverse of 2016.

If that were the situation today, then what would you think the chances would be that Joe Biden would, eventually, wind up being inaugurated as president?

Don’t react. Sit with this for a second.


2. The Autocratic Attempt

I’ve been thinking about that question for 24 hours and I do not believe that the chances of Biden becoming president under such a scenario would be greater than 50-50.

Maybe you think I’m crazy. That’s fine. But would anyone believe that the odds of Biden being sworn in in such a scenario would be over 90 percent?

The reason I put this question to you is because the answer reveals what the actual state of the rule of law is in America right now: The only reason we believe Biden will become president is because we believe that his advantage is too big for Trump to succeed in overturning the election. We think that the rule of law will hold not because it is inviolable, or because both sides are committed to it, but because the results create too tall a burden on the would-be autocrat.

Or, in the words of one brave Republican official:

“What is the downside for humoring him for this little bit of time? No one seriously thinks the results will change,” said one senior Republican official. “He went golfing this weekend. It’s not like he’s plotting how to prevent Joe Biden from taking power on Jan. 20. He’s tweeting about filing some lawsuits, those lawsuits will fail, then he’ll tweet some more about how the election was stolen, and then he’ll leave.”

This view may be correct. But if so, it is only correct because of the particular facts on the ground. If the facts were slightly different—if Biden had won by less impressive, but still decisive and legal, margins—then this view would almost certainly be incorrect.

That should terrify you.

You should also be terrified because this sanguine view may not be correct.

Because it is not just the president rage tweeting and filing some lawsuits.

The attorney general has moved to weaponize the Department of Justice in the president’s attempt to overturn the election.

The highest ranking elected Republican—the Senate majority leader—is publicly declining to accept the results of the election. The second-highest ranking Republican—the House minority leader—has actively declared the election fraudulent. The Republican governor of Georgia and the state’s two Republican senators are declaring—with no evidence—that the vote in their state is invalid and are calling for the resignation of the Republican secretary of state.

Contra the “senior Republican official,” Donald Trump will only leave if someone, somewhere, stands up to his autocratic attempt and holds fast against it. So far, nearly the entire body of the Republican party is either averting its eyes from, or supporting, this attempt.

If we have learned nothing else from the last four years, we should know that institutions are only as strong as the people who man them.


Now is the time to stand up and fight back. Help save our democracy. Ride or die, America.

 

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5 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

I think a candidate like Katie Porter in California and the fact that Florida passed a $15/hr minimum wage sets templates for how progressive candidates and progressive ideas can win in red-leaning areas. Katie Porter won re-election by a 6% margin in a district that once had Duncan Hunter and Dana Rohrabacher (obviously post gerrymandering) as it's representatives and hadn't had a Democrat elected to it since at least 1982, maybe prior to that.

Meanwhile, you had a similar candidate in Lauren Underwood who nearly got taken out by a perennial nutjob candidate (who, to be fair, happens to sell some damn good ice cream)....

Porter may just be the exception to the rule.... some of it may be her profile that she had built up, or the quality of her opposition. But the idea that she won, therefore everyone else should have, just doesn't strike me as realistic.

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Minimum wage in Florida passing and Trump winning Florida doesn't surprise me.  I've been going on lengthy bike rides on weekends lately, and some through some iffier parts of town, lower incoming housing for sure. A TON of Trump signs. The parties are less divided on economic lines than it used to be. Trump's populist message can resonate with people who vote for a minimum wage increase.

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16 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

I think a candidate like Katie Porter in California and the fact that Florida passed a $15/hr minimum wage sets templates for how progressive candidates and progressive ideas can win in red-leaning districts and states. Katie Porter won re-election by a 6% margin in a district that once had Duncan Hunter and Dana Rohrabacher (obviously post gerrymandering) as it's representatives and hadn't had a Democrat elected to it since at least 1982, maybe prior to that.

Cool. Now lets see Katie Porter win statewide election in Missouri or in Western Pennsylvania on a progressive platform. 

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Just now, mtutiger said:

Meanwhile, you had a similar candidate in Lauren Underwood who nearly got taken out by a perennial nutjob candidate (who, to be fair, happens to sell some damn good ice cream)....

Porter may just be the exception to the rule.... some of it may be her profile that she had built up, or the quality of her opposition. But the idea that she won, therefore everyone else should have, just doesn't strike me as realistic.

But Abigail Spanberger was trying to essentially make the argument that progressive ideas + BLM movement + moving too far to the left = losses in the House for Democrats. If Katie Porter isn't an example that fits, what about statewide Senate races like Tammy Baldwin and Wisconsin and Sherrod Brown in Ohio? IF we've moved too far to the left, wouldn't logic dictate that both Baldwin and Brown would be in serious electoral trouble? Yet they win handily each time they run. There is something those candidates are doing as leaders, as politicians, with their messaging that manages to both be progressive and win at the same time.

It may be true that progressive messaging and moving to far left hurt us in select districts, but I think Spanberger's blanket assertions are also incorrect. What I'd still like to know once we can dive into the data of this past election is did progressive messaging and moving too far left cost the House Democrats seats or were these just red-leaning districts that came home to roost with Trump on the ballot and increased Republican turn out? How many truly purple, 50/50 districts did Democrats lose on Tuesday and how many were center-right, 55/45 red districts to begin with? And if it is progressive messaging and ideas that cost us politically, how can we make it better at the ballot box for voters?

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2 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

Cool. Now lets see Katie Porter win statewide election in Missouri or in Western Pennsylvania on a progressive platform. 

You mean like Sherrod Brown in Ohio and Tammy Baldwin in Wisconsin do? Tammy Baldwin is literally a lesbian leftist and she wins statewide in the same state as crazy ***, right-wing, Trump sycophant Ron Johnson.

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4 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

But Abigail Spanberger was trying to essentially make the argument that progressive ideas + BLM movement + moving too far to the left = losses in the House for Democrats. If Katie Porter isn't an example that fits, what about statewide Senate races like Tammy Baldwin and Wisconsin and Sherrod Brown in Ohio? IF we've moved too far to the left, wouldn't logic dictate that both Baldwin and Brown would be in serious electoral trouble? Yet they win handily each time they run. There is something those candidates are doing as leaders, as politicians, with their messaging that manages to both be progressive and win at the same time.

Sherrod Brown and Tammy Baldwin were incumbent Senators in an incredibly good cycle for Democrats. 

I'm not even sure Sherrod Brown would have survived if he was on the ballot this year, tbh. Tammy's election would have been closer too.

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During my lifetime, the GOP has been the party of the rich and powerful.  Most of that time they were indifferent to abortion.  Think Barry Goldwater or Alan Simpson.  Then one day, they looked around, and noticed all those poor people in the Bible Belt and said, we can get those voters on our side by being the pro life party.  You can make similar arguments for gun rights and gay marriage.

Over a few decades, the GOP absorbed all of the Bible Belt.  I used to be a moderate republican, but now I have nobody to vote for in that party.

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5 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

But Abigail Spanberger was trying to essentially make the argument that progressive ideas + BLM movement + moving too far to the left = losses in the House for Democrats. If Katie Porter isn't an example that fits, what about statewide Senate races like Tammy Baldwin and Wisconsin and Sherrod Brown in Ohio? IF we've moved too far to the left, wouldn't logic dictate that both Baldwin and Brown would be in serious electoral trouble? Yet they win handily each time they run. There is something those candidates are doing as leaders, as politicians, with their messaging that manages to both be progressive and win at the same time.

It may be true that progressive messaging and moving to far left hurt us in select districts, but I think Spanberger's blanket assertions are also incorrect. What I'd still like to know once we can dive into the data of this past election is did progressive messaging and moving too far left cost the House Democrats seats or were these just red-leaning districts that came home to roost with Trump on the ballot and increased Republican turn out? How many truly purple, 50/50 districts did Democrats lose on Tuesday and how many were center-right, 55/45 red districts to begin with? And if it is progressive messaging and ideas that cost us politically, how can we make it better at the ballot box for voters?

Penalty.  15 yards. Conflation of BLM and "Defund Police"

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6 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

Sherrod Brown and Tammy Baldwin were incumbent politicians in an incredibly good cycle for Democrats. 

I'm not even sure Sherrod Brown would have survived if he was on the ballot this year, tbh.

Do you think Porter's left wing, populism on economics is apart of her strength in her district or a detriment? Or Brown's and Baldwin's for that matter. If it is a strength, isn't that left wing populism on economics a message that can be, with some tweaks and adjustments, templated across other center-right and 50/50 districts to help Democrats win back white working class voters and inoculate the Trump effect? Essentially, fighting fire with fire, populism on the right with populism on the left. Only doing so, without old man Bernie running around talking about Democratic-socialism.

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11 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

You mean like Sherrod Brown in Ohio and Tammy Baldwin in Wisconsin do? Tammy Baldwin is literally a lesbian leftist and she wins statewide in the same state as crazy ***, right-wing, Trump sycophant Ron Johnson.

Defund the police and the rioting and looting happened after those two were elected. 

I fully expect Sherrod Brown would have lost. Baldwin would have been close. 

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Ferguson happened, with rioting and looting and giving rise to BLM before either Baldwin or Brown's elections. Granted, Trump wasn't yet the powerful figure he is now, but still.

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1 minute ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

Ferguson happened, with rioting and looting and giving rise to BLM before either Baldwin or Brown's elections. Granted, Trump wasn't yet the powerful figure he is now, but still.

Ferguson happened and McCaskil lost and Republicans took over governor of Missouri. 

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1 minute ago, Motown Bombers said:

Ferguson happened and McCaskil lost and Republicans took over governor of Missouri. 

She was also a moderate though that's why I dont think it's as simple as just run moderates and conservatives in red states.

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1 minute ago, TigerFan1984 said:

She was also a moderate though that's why I dont think it's as simple as just run moderates and conservatives in red states.

I guarantee AOC gets crushed if she tries to run in Missouri. 

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26 minutes ago, apabruce said:

During my lifetime, the GOP has been the party of the rich and powerful.  Most of that time they were indifferent to abortion.  Think Barry Goldwater or Alan Simpson.  Then one day, they looked around, and noticed all those poor people in the Bible Belt and said, we can get those voters on our side by being the pro life party.  You can make similar arguments for gun rights and gay marriage.

Over a few decades, the GOP absorbed all of the Bible Belt.  I used to be a moderate republican, but now I have nobody to vote for in that party.

Yes yes yes... Jerry Falwell.  Transformed politics.  And it's very interesting that Reagan was the vessel since he was part of that Westward/Libertarian push of the conservative party along with Goldwater.

 

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15 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

I guarantee AOC gets crushed if she tries to run in Missouri. 

Would Tammy Baldwin? What about an Andy Levin in Macomb County? Granted, in a very gerrymandered blue district. Macomb County is becoming more red and Andy Levin, whose basically got not a dimes worth of difference on policy from Rashida Tlaib one district over, wins decisively as well. Maybe it's more the person and personality and how they sell the policy versus just the actually progressive policy itself.

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4 minutes ago, Oblong said:

Yes yes yes... Jerry Falwell.  Transformed politics.  And it's very interesting that Reagan was the vessel since he was part of that Westward/Libertarian push of the conservative party along with Goldwater.

 

the Phyliss Schafly documentary on FX was really interesting on this issue.   Schlafly having to entertain the bigoted evangelical to get her mailing list.  

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16 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

I guarantee AOC gets crushed if she tries to run in Missouri. 

I agree.  Run AOC types in safe areas and conservative or moderates in red states I just dont think they will win in red states after 2018. Nelson in Flordia lost that was a disaster. These red states like republicans and it's going to be a big problem going forword. 

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